The Derby figure

[Sightseek]

A nice write-up by Timeform on the figure:

http://timeformusblog.com/2014/05/07...figure-review/

[cmorioles]

Also worth a read:

http://tinyurl.com/derbywind

[Calzone Lord]

So, the 15mph headwind for an extra 1.5 furlongs, contributed to a final time 0.81 seconds slower, based on that relationship.

Beyer only baked in 3.5 lengths for it. Needed to bake in closer to 4.75 lengths.

What does it say about the sheet figures? They're supposed to account for wind? They both have Untapable much faster.

The Derby has had a turf race carded before it for decades. The post times have been ridiculously long between races for decades. I guess this was finally, a year where the track maintenance crew did something different, and out of the norm?

[Calzone Lord]

Not sure what button I hit on my phone, to make a thumbs down appear, but I would never boo you, CJ

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

So, the 15mph headwind for an extra 1.5 furlongs, contributed to a final time 0.81 seconds slower, based on that relationship.

Beyer only baked in 3.5 lengths for it. Needed to bake in closer to 4.75 lengths.

What does it say about the sheet figures? They're supposed to account for wind? They both have Untapable much faster.

The Derby has had a turf race carded before it for decades. The post times have been ridiculously long between races for decades. I guess this was finally, a year where the track maintenance crew did something different, and out of the norm?

I actually think it is a bit more than that, because with the horses being more tired in a 10f race the effect of the wind would be more dramatic in the stretch the second time than in the shorter race. But basically, about 4 lengths faster is how I have the race, so we're close.

As for the maintenance, I really don't know, but I will in the future. I'm only worried about getting the number the best I can this year. Learn what you can and move on. Information is more plentiful now than in year's past.

No worries on the thumbs down bro!