The Derby figure

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by tector

If you listen to Beyer on ATR today, he says something similar. The slide of the Belmont figure over the past 25 years is now hitting the Derby as well--not only are today's American horses not bred for 1.5, but 1.25 is getting to be out of reach.

He should have long ago adjusted his speed charts to reflect racing today, not how it was in 1974.

[Mack]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

This video is for Andy Beyer, but replace Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parrish with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, and Affirmed.

I'm beyond tired of the constant denigration of today's horses and the longing for the heroes of yesteryear. Accept that this is the new normal and enjoy it. As a newbie to the game, I naturally get defensive when I hear how crappy and slow horses like California Chrome, I'll Have Another, and Union Rags are.

MLB Batting averages are considerably lower than in the 20's and 30's, but I don't see baseball fans pining for the good ole days and talking about how terrible Big Papi or Derek Jeter are because they don't hit .400, 50 HR, 150 RBI every year like Babe Ruth did.

I appreciate the past very much, but I choose to celebrate the present.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Mack

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

This video is for Andy Beyer, but replace Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parrish with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, and Affirmed.

I'm beyond tired of the constant denigration of today's horses and the longing for the heroes of yesteryear. Accept that this is the new normal and enjoy it. As a newbie to the game, I naturally get defensive when I hear how crappy and slow horses like California Chrome, I'll Have Another, and Union Rags are.

MLB Batting averages are considerably lower than in the 20's and 30's, but I don't see baseball fans pining for the good ole days and talking about how terrible Big Papi or Derek Jeter are because they don't hit .400, 50 HR, 150 RBI every year like Babe Ruth did.

I appreciate the past very much, but I choose to celebrate the present.

It is a natural thing to do, and something I fell into for a bit before stepping back and reassessing things. I'm with you 100% on this.

[Sightseek]

A nice write-up by Timeform on the figure:

http://timeformusblog.com/2014/05/07...figure-review/

[cmorioles]

Also worth a read:

http://tinyurl.com/derbywind

[Calzone Lord]

So, the 15mph headwind for an extra 1.5 furlongs, contributed to a final time 0.81 seconds slower, based on that relationship.

Beyer only baked in 3.5 lengths for it. Needed to bake in closer to 4.75 lengths.

What does it say about the sheet figures? They're supposed to account for wind? They both have Untapable much faster.

The Derby has had a turf race carded before it for decades. The post times have been ridiculously long between races for decades. I guess this was finally, a year where the track maintenance crew did something different, and out of the norm?

[Calzone Lord]

Not sure what button I hit on my phone, to make a thumbs down appear, but I would never boo you, CJ

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

So, the 15mph headwind for an extra 1.5 furlongs, contributed to a final time 0.81 seconds slower, based on that relationship.

Beyer only baked in 3.5 lengths for it. Needed to bake in closer to 4.75 lengths.

What does it say about the sheet figures? They're supposed to account for wind? They both have Untapable much faster.

The Derby has had a turf race carded before it for decades. The post times have been ridiculously long between races for decades. I guess this was finally, a year where the track maintenance crew did something different, and out of the norm?

I actually think it is a bit more than that, because with the horses being more tired in a 10f race the effect of the wind would be more dramatic in the stretch the second time than in the shorter race. But basically, about 4 lengths faster is how I have the race, so we're close.

As for the maintenance, I really don't know, but I will in the future. I'm only worried about getting the number the best I can this year. Learn what you can and move on. Information is more plentiful now than in year's past.

No worries on the thumbs down bro!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Mack

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICdXAmd1TWA

This video is for Andy Beyer, but replace Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parrish with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, and Affirmed.

I'm beyond tired of the constant denigration of today's horses and the longing for the heroes of yesteryear. Accept that this is the new normal and enjoy it. As a newbie to the game, I naturally get defensive when I hear how crappy and slow horses like California Chrome, I'll Have Another, and Union Rags are.

MLB Batting averages are considerably lower than in the 20's and 30's, but I don't see baseball fans pining for the good ole days and talking about how terrible Big Papi or Derek Jeter are because they don't hit .400, 50 HR, 150 RBI every year like Babe Ruth did.

I appreciate the past very much, but I choose to celebrate the present.

Cool story.

You should ignore Beyer figures...and instead focus on Thoro Graph. The scale suggests the thoroughbred is far superior today.

We Miss Artie is faster than Alysheba and Sunday Silence.

Maybe they're right. Beyer figs weighted by Pars. It sure would be fun to see if Commanding Curve could smoke the greats of the late 80's ... but they'd have to step out of a time machine.

[alysheba4]

sunday silence could have spotted artie a furlong and beat him.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

sunday silence could have spotted artie a furlong and beat him.

Celebrate the present.

Artie was valiantly defeated by 8.25 lengths twice in a week. Once in the Ky Derby, and once in a 5 furlong workout.

[Mack]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Celebrate the present.

Artie was valiantly defeated by 8.25 lengths twice in a week. Once in the Ky Derby, and once in a 5 furlong workout.

Although Artie got revenge on the horse who beat him in that 5f workout by beating him in the Derby. I guess Intense Holiday didn't get the memo on how good he looked in those works.

[Mack]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Cool story.

You should ignore Beyer figures...and instead focus on Thoro Graph. The scale suggests the thoroughbred is far superior today.

We Miss Artie is faster than Alysheba and Sunday Silence.

Maybe they're right. Beyer figs weighted by Pars. It sure would be fun to see if Commanding Curve could smoke the greats of the late 80's ... but they'd have to step out of a time machine.

You're missing my point. I'm not saying thoroughbreds today are better. I believe quite the opposite in fact, and the evidence is pretty clear. I'm also a believer in Beyer's figs.

I'm just saying I'm tired of hearing about how terrible horses are now compared to then. I've accepted this as a new normal and don't want to keep banging on about the decline of the American Thoroughbred.

The greatness of an athlete is defined by the era they compete in, and not entirely by where they sit in relation to the accomplishments of the past.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Mack

You're missing my point. I'm not saying thoroughbreds today are better. I believe quite the opposite in fact, and the evidence is pretty clear. I'm also a believer in Beyer's figs.

I'm just saying I'm tired of hearing about how terrible horses are now compared to then. I've accepted this as a new normal and don't want to keep banging on about the decline of the American Thoroughbred.

The greatness of an athlete is defined by the era they compete in, and not entirely by where they sit in relation to the accomplishments of the past.

I don't disagree. Untapable has delivered three great performances in a row for a 3yo filly.

Wise Dan and Game on Dude have maintained top class form for over 3 years.

Titans of the Turf are still out there and they always will be

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't disagree. Untapable has delivered three great performances in a row for a 3yo filly.

Wise Dan and Game on Dude have maintained top class form for over 3 years.

Titans of the Turf are still out there and they always will be

Game On Dude must be the most unsexy horse that has ever lived. There have been horses with half his accomplishments, speed and longevity that have been much more celebrated.