Del Mar... NO MORE POLYTRACK

[randallscott35]

Actually poly was small potatoes for me, I think it was a very silly foray by racing but you are right you vote with your wagering dollars. Rarely bet Del Mar. Do like to bet Keeneland and Woodbine but more for its randomness which is not exactly what handicapping is supposed to be....so yes, being fair I do bet poly but over the course of a year, I doubt it's more than 20% of my action.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Actually poly was small potatoes for me, I think it was a very silly foray by racing but you are right you vote with your wagering dollars. Rarely bet Del Mar. Do like to bet Keeneland and Woodbine but more for its randomness which is not exactly what handicapping is supposed to be....so yes, being fair I do bet poly but over the course of a year, I doubt it's more than 20% of my action.

Thing about those tracks with "randomness" is most of the horses that races at those tracks have established form over the surface. Woodbine horses at least the past few years don't need to ship away from their track much because they had such awesome purses before the ONT government yanked that away. Will be interesting to see if it's the same now. The major randomness at Woodbine with with those ONT state-bred maidens and allowances. If you don't know much about their local sires you don't have much to go on, but that's not a surface issue. Those races would be just as random on dirt.

As for Keeneland. The awesome thing with that place is it's always been random. Big wide-open fields. When they replaced dirt there, they actually leveled off the stretch and got rid of the speed bias. The stretch went slightly downhill when it was dirt. Now horses with established synthetic form will ship in to race there because they have solid form over a similar surface (a big part being from your favorite, Presque Isle).

Is it as much randomness as it is full competitive fields? Hmmm.... I think that same level of competition continued to happen at Del Mar after they installed their synthetic surface.

[pmayjr]

let me reiterate a couple things that may have gotten lost in this debate-

I'm with you guys that I was skeptical that changing to synthetic surfaces would have any impact on horse safety numbers. I think it was a waste. But I learned to adapt and even embrace race meets with synthetic. There have been stats and studies that have proven these surfaces are slightly safer, right?

I treat a synthetic surface as a completely independent 3rd surface different from dirt and turf. That's why I've had success with it. That's probably stating the obvious to some of you, but to those who hate it, I wonder if you have yet made that separation?

For those listing all the horses that have all of a sudden woken up running on the surface as it being some sort of side show, that they're worthless because they can't hack it on dirt-
Do you give those same dirt failures crap if they end up having a solid turf career? Is Wee Miss Artie a failure if he runs up the track in the Fountain of Youth but ends up being a good turf horse?

If African Story goes onto win the Dubai World Cup this year, since he's been a monster at Meydan at almost every start there, but never does anything else is he worthless to you?

Are you really just butt-hurt that Swiss Yodeler's value is diminshed, but some random sire named Bartok is worth a lot now because of synthetics?

Just saying, I think the people that don't mind the synthetics are people that see it's value as an independent 3rd surface

[Danzig]

you'd have to think a horse wouldn't be very valuable if he only can run on a couple of tracks, because poly is going the way of the dodo.
has nothing to do with butt hurt. has everything to do with recognizing what the move to poly was all about and viewing it as a complete waste to do so, since the results are pretty much what the people against the changes were expecting.
it was a grand, and failed experiment. horses who are producing synthetic specialists will see their demand go away, because who wants to breed horses for a surface that is going back out of existence.

[ateamstupid]

I've never seen someone defend synthetics so vociferously. No one's saying that there aren't handicapping angles that can be used to success on synth, but there is an undeniable amount of randomness that occurs, particularly at KEE where horses are shipping in from all different surfaces and figuring out who's going to transfer their form (or jump up 30 points) is like throwing darts blindfolded. You need look no further than the list of Blue Grass winners since KEE switched to know that a track which was once the proving grounds for great horses has become one that elevates mediocrities to stars. It's bad for racing and diminishes the amount of ability it takes to win a Grade 1 on dirt or turf when a horse that would've otherwise been a 25k claimer wins the freaking Blue Grass or Spinster b/c none of the other horses could transfer their form to a joke surface.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I've never seen someone defend synthetics so vociferously. No one's saying that there aren't handicapping angles that can be used to success on synth, but there is an undeniable amount of randomness that occurs, particularly at KEE where horses are shipping in from all different surfaces and figuring out who's going to transfer their form (or jump up 30 points) is like throwing darts blindfolded. You need look no further than the list of Blue Grass winners since KEE switched to know that a track which was once the proving grounds for great horses has become one that elevates mediocrities to stars. It's bad for racing and diminishes the amount of ability it takes to win a Grade 1 on dirt or turf when a horse that would've otherwise been a 25k claimer wins the freaking Blue Grass or Spinster b/c none of the other horses could transfer their form to a joke surface.

Do I have to return my Joha poster?

[pmayjr]

When Joha wins the Canadian this weekend, it'll be worth more

Ateam,

When horses ship to Keeneland from Presque Isle, Turfway, Arlington, Woodbine, SoCal they have proven form over synthetic surfaces so I don't see that as randomness. When a horse ships in to Del Mar having proven success st Hollywood or GG, there's not much randomness there. The randomness at Keeneland, Del Mar, and Saratoga isn't the surface, its you have quality horses coming from all points to make the fields wide open

Once again don't mistake what I'm saying as being a total apologist for the surface, but there's room for both in US racing. And the safety numbers? They seem to back up synths

[randallscott35]

But the Canadian is on a real surface, not Poly...Poly is similar to betting on horses swimming. We just need a big pool. RH10 could be the skimmer.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

When Joha wins the Canadian this weekend, it'll be worth more

Ateam,

When horses ship to Keeneland from Presque Isle, Turfway, Arlington, Woodbine, SoCal they have proven form over synthetic surfaces so I don't see that as randomness. When a horse ships in to Del Mar having proven success st Hollywood or GG, there's not much randomness there. The randomness at Keeneland, Del Mar, and Saratoga isn't the surface, its you have quality horses coming from all points to make the fields wide open

Once again don't mistake what I'm saying as being a total apologist for the surface, but there's room for both in US racing. And the safety numbers? They seem to back up synths

You're really comparing Keeneland's polytrack and the absurdity it produces to Saratoga? Come on. It's not because of the shippers, it's because that track is different than pretty much anything the shippers run on. There's no equation between one synth track to the next.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Do I have to return my Joha poster?

He wasnt a breeding mistake was he?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He wasnt a breeding mistake was he?

I meant horses bred based on synthetic success. So yes if he waters down the breed it becomes a mistake