Hwjb's betting diary

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

24/11/06

Musselburgh:
2:30 Kings Quay 4pts win
3:00 Lascar de Ferbet 3pts win

Newbury:
1:35 Wogan 1pt win
2:10 Oscar Park 4pts win
Nyborg Madrik 4pts win
2:40 Gungadu 8pts win
3:10 Lou du Moulin Mas 6pts win

Wolves:
1:40 A Little Bit Left 4pts win

Hwjb,

It seems to me you have been betting more units than you did initially. Here's what you wrote in answer to an early question of mine:

Originally Posted by Hwjb

My points are on a simple scale from 1-10. I very rarely bet 7+ pts, and will probably only have a 5pt bet once a week or so...wanted to get this off with a juicy bet today, and as I speak Cheeky Lad has romped home! My wage is pretty poor so I can't afford to bet that heavily, and therefore 1pt = £10 for me.

This week you've already made 6 bets of 5+ pts (since 11/21). The 1-2 pt plays, which were the bulk of your picks when you started, are now the exception.

This is natural, and even makes sense from a math standpoint if you have been building a bankroll. But if one reason you are keeping a bet log is for the purpose of seeing how skilled you are in the long run, then raising your bets throws a lot more uncertainty into interpreting your results. The more your results hinge on just a few races, the less meaningful they are. In your case, you had one whopper where you collected something like 124 units. But of the remaining 103 units profit, I think no single race contributed more than 35 pts. That makes your result more impressive than if you were having lots of 5-10 pt plays that were returning 50+ pts when they win.

--Dunbar

[Hwjb]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Hwjb,

It seems to me you have been betting more units than you did initially. Here's what you wrote in answer to an early question of mine:



This week you've already made 6 bets of 5+ pts (since 11/21). The 1-2 pt plays, which were the bulk of your picks when you started, are now the exception.

This is natural, and even makes sense from a math standpoint if you have been building a bankroll. But if one reason you are keeping a bet log is for the purpose of seeing how skilled you are in the long run, then raising your bets throws a lot more uncertainty into interpreting your results. The more your results hinge on just a few races, the less meaningful they are. In your case, you had one whopper where you collected something like 124 units. But of the remaining 103 units profit, I think no single race contributed more than 35 pts. That makes your result more impressive than if you were having lots of 5-10 pt plays that were returning 50+ pts when they win.

--Dunbar

Dunbar,

You're absolutely right. In large part it's simply a case of human fallibility...with a large balance in my betting account I find it hard to restrict myself to the smaller bets, and I have been making some unnecessarily large plays of late which were speculative in nature, and should have been much smaller in outlay.
That said, some (a minority) of the larger bets I've been placing (including Wednesday's maximum) have been because we are really getting going in the jumps season of late, and this time of year often tends to provide worthily juicy bets.
Anyway, thanks for bringing me to account on this score, clearly the staking should remain the same throughout, and if I want to put more on I just need to change the amount of cash (currently £10) I bet per point. However, I'm not going to do this yet and will instead just try to exercise a little more self-control!!
Thanks for the input!

Harry.