What did we learn...Pre BC?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Can sum up this past weekend's racing action as bizarre, weird, and mostly shitty.

So what did we learn heading toward racing's most important 2 days?

Belmont had a ridiculous inside speed bias?
Certain stellar horses were hardly "cranked up" for these events?
The Beldame winner is passing on a CA visit?
Fort Larned had a paid workout on Saturday night?
Martin Garcia gave Paynter a tour of Clocker's Corner?
The jockey's in the Flower Bowl were ok with Laughing going 1:16?
Little Mike continues to drive bettors to drink (more)?
The 3rd likeliest Baffert wins The Chandelier?

So what did we learn? Ok, Tiz Flirtatious and Beholder are real good. Less than 5 weeks from those massive pools and huge opportunities to boot. This past weekend kept things real murky.

Im not sure it was shitty.
Lets start with Belmont. Yes there was an obvious bias Saturday, but Im not sure how great it was. Race 2 the Klervich baby looked home free and was run down late.....
Royal Delta got beat, but POS made her move in the clear. And was 2-1, its not like anything crazy happened. Graydar who I was totally against was 4-5. Private Zone who I liked is clearly a fighter, and like Steve pointed out in another thread JP can wait on horses/hang. Private Zone was also 7-2 and picked on top by many, including Serling. JCGC was the only price and its not like it was totally crazy. Ron the Greek won the Big Cap last year and beat MMM at Gulfstream. He also won the Foster beating Wise Dan. So yes he was off form, but he also throws a big race. I believe Serling said there was no way he should have been 20x the price of Orb.
Lets go to Fort Larned next.....I might be the only person who thinks this but the horse who ran second 2 him is really good. Lopresti has a really good dirt router. His Saratoga comeback was huge, and right after he was on capital otb and mentioned that race at Churchill Im sure at that point he had no clue he was catching a BC Classic winner. I dont love Fort Larned, but the race came back fast and we know he likes Santa Anita.
Paynters run was odd. Looked like he was totally backing up then came on again. Personally I would try him in the dirt mile or skip the BC all together and re group. He came back from near death and puts up a 114, then comes across country and catches slop. He might need a break.
Im not sure what the big deal is with Princess not going to the BC. She has run in all the big races and is a much much better horse then I thought she was. I literally gave her no chance of beating Delta on that day. I was wrong, and its not like they are retiring her, like we see with so many horses. The connections 100% want her back next year.
Tiz Flirtatious is so so at best. I believe even Laughing is better.
Beholder is OK. Another one who is better then I thought, but still nothing special. Plus if Delta goes forward someone is getting cooked in the Distaff.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im not sure it was shitty.
Lets start with Belmont. Yes there was an obvious bias Saturday, but Im not sure how great it was. Race 2 the Klervich baby looked home free and was run down late.....
Royal Delta got beat, but POS made her move in the clear. And was 2-1, its not like anything crazy happened. Graydar who I was totally against was 4-5. Private Zone who I liked is clearly a fighter, and like Steve pointed out in another thread JP can wait on horses/hang. Private Zone was also 7-2 and picked on top by many, including Serling. JCGC was the only price and its not like it was totally crazy. Ron the Greek won the Big Cap last year and beat MMM at Gulfstream. He also won the Foster beating Wise Dan. So yes he was off form, but he also throws a big race. I believe Serling said there was no way he should have been 20x the price of Orb.
Lets go to Fort Larned next.....I might be the only person who thinks this but the horse who ran second 2 him is really good. Lopresti has a really good dirt router. His Saratoga comeback was huge, and right after he was on capital otb and mentioned that race at Churchill Im sure at that point he had no clue he was catching a BC Classic winner. I dont love Fort Larned, but the race came back fast and we know he likes Santa Anita.
Paynters run was odd. Looked like he was totally backing up then came on again. Personally I would try him in the dirt mile or skip the BC all together and re group. He came back from near death and puts up a 114, then comes across country and catches slop. He might need a break.
Im not sure what the big deal is with Princess not going to the BC. She has run in all the big races and is a much much better horse then I thought she was. I literally gave her no chance of beating Delta on that day. I was wrong, and its not like they are retiring her, like we see with so many horses. The connections 100% want her back next year.
Tiz Flirtatious is so so at best. I believe even Laughing is better.
Beholder is OK. Another one who is better then I thought, but still nothing special. Plus if Delta goes forward someone is getting cooked in the Distaff.

This may be your finest work.

-------------------------------------------------

Also, if you really thought the results at Belmont were skewed, it should provide a great deal of opportunity BC weekend.

[freddymo]

I learned that I want no part of Graydar, I learned Cross Traffic has done enough. I learned nothing about Laughing, I learned Tannery could be a monster, I learned Departing is the fraud and congrats to Al Stall for campaigning him as such, I learned Beholder is a killer. I learned why Bill Mott is a HoF'r!

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I learned that I want no part of Graydar, I learned Cross Traffic has done enough. I learned nothing about Laughing, I learned Tannery could be a monster, I learned Departing is the fraud and congrats to Al Stall for campaigning him as such, I learned Beholder is a killer. I learned why Bill Mott is a HoF'r!

Nuff said.

[Thunder Gulch]

I learned that any weekend Little Mike runs is a good weekend to be on vacation. That's all that saved me from a pile of dead tickets- again.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I learned that I want no part of Graydar, I learned Cross Traffic has done enough. I learned nothing about Laughing, I learned Tannery could be a monster, I learned Departing is the fraud and congrats to Al Stall for campaigning him as such, I learned Beholder is a killer. I learned why Bill Mott is a HoF'r!

What did you take away from the Gold Cup that convinces you one way or the other about Cross Traffic? I don't think I learned anything about him from that race.

Paul

[NTamm1215]

I'm also unsure why everyone is suddenly in awe of Beholder. Did a lot of people not think she could win around two turns when totally unpressured on that surface?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm also unsure why everyone is suddenly in awe of Beholder. Did a lot of people not think she could win around two turns when totally unpressured on that surface?

I thought her Oaks was a pretty nice race too.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm also unsure why everyone is suddenly in awe of Beholder. Did a lot of people not think she could win around two turns when totally unpressured on that surface?

Yeah, I don't get it either. Was nice of Rosie to just hand her an unpressured lead through easy fractions.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Yeah, I don't get it either. Was nice of Rosie to just hand her an unpressured lead through easy fractions.

I will say I just looked at her year and it was better than I thought, 3 grade 1 wins and she ran the best race in the Oaks...still not better than POS just better than I had recalled.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by pweizer

What did you take away from the Gold Cup that convinces you one way or the other about Cross Traffic? I don't think I learned anything about him from that race.

Paul

How many Pletcher trainee's return from the abyss?

[Vegaskid]

Cross Traffic isn't good enough... Indy Points Arlington was a throw out... Beholder is that good and real quick out the gate putting pace issues for all else involved.... Mucho Macho Man may be ready to take down Game On Dude... Fort Larned may retire after BC... Gary Stevens is setting up for a big BC!!

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Vegaskid

Cross Traffic isn't good enough... Indy Points Arlington was a throw out... Beholder is that good and real quick out the gate putting pace issues for all else involved.... Mucho Macho Man may be ready to take down Game On Dude... Fort Larned may retire after BC... Gary Stevens is setting up for a big BC!!

Cross Traffic isn't good enough for what? Silly. I think Cross Traffic beats MMM any day up to 9f.

[Vegaskid]

Originally Posted by Vegaskid

Cross Traffic isn't good enough... Indy Points Arlington was a throw out... Beholder is that good and real quick out the gate putting pace issues for all else involved.... Mucho Macho Man may be ready to take down Game On Dude... Fort Larned may retire after BC... Gary Stevens is setting up for a big BC!!

Beholder, MMM, and Goldencents made this one heck off a BC for me!! Indy Point was my only real disappointment.... Will Take Charge put in a winning effort and should improve next year... Congrats to Gary Stevens on his 1st Classic win!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I learned Cross Traffic has done enough.

Originally Posted by freddymo

How many Pletcher trainee's return from the abyss?

What abyss? I know it's fun to tweak Pletcher Freddy, but take a second and watch the head on and see his hind legs splay out from under him. Race over.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

What abyss? I know it's fun to tweak Pletcher Freddy, but take a second and watch the head on and see his hind legs splay out from under him. Race over.

Lot's of horses lose a few lengths and recover and if you think that is all that happens I respectfully disagree. That horse had plenty of time to rally. Let's hope he is back for the Donn.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Lot's of horses lose a few lengths and recover and if you think that is all that happens I respectfully disagree. That horse had plenty of time to rally. Let's hope he is back for the Donn.

Speed horses who blow the break usually have no chance... especially when they're forced to resort to rally wide tactics at 10 furlongs over a track like the one on Saturday.

I think you have to draw a line through that race, Freddy. It was certainly not a representative race.

Cross Traffic's true odds were about 5,000/1 after he blew the break. Brilliant miler types with forward running styles can't spot stretch runners like Flat Out, Ron The Greek, and Orb a huge head start and be expected to rally around them in the stretch.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Speed horses who blow the break usually have no chance... especially when they're forced to resort to rally wide tactics at 10 furlongs over a track like the one on Saturday.

I think you have to draw a line through that race, Freddy. It was certainly not a representative race.

Cross Traffic's true odds were about 5,000/1 after he blew the break. Brilliant miler types with forward running styles can't spot stretch runners like Flat Out, Ron The Greek, and Orb a huge head start and be expected to rally around them in the stretch.

Bro have a heart he never ran a step...Any day we should be getting news on the horses ailments

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

What abyss? I know it's fun to tweak Pletcher Freddy, but take a second and watch the head on and see his hind legs splay out from under him. Race over.

It was 1/9 this colt was finished. He never sees the track again gets retired to a stud farm and I you know it because we have seen play out the same way for years. I just don't hate on Pletcher to be a jerk. I realize he has only a handful of equals and is a world class professional. All that aside his horses run great until they don't and once they sour its Sabbath Shalom.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

It was 1/9 this colt was finished. He never sees the track again gets retired to a stud farm and I you know it because we have seen play out the same way for years. I just don't hate on Pletcher to be a jerk. I realize he has only a handful of equals and is a world class professional. All that aside his horses run great until they don't and once they sour its Sabbath Shalom.

It'll be frustrating if it plays out that way and yes, the A.P. Arrow's are few and far between with Pletcher. Back to GoldMark in Ocala for now: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...iss-bc-classic