Butch Lehr on bias controversy -- Horseplayer Daily

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Especially since it was the second race off a layoff which often leads to a big race. It is called bounce THEORY for a reason. In reality what is perceived as a bounce is really just regression to the mean after a big race.

Actually, I have heard and read it's 3rd off the layoff that's the best and produces the best results...

Yes, a bounce is sometimes a regression back to the mean, but his mean was not good enough to win the race, his best was, but he ran his best by a large margin in the last race and was set for a bounce...It's a theory and sometimes doesn't hold true, because these are horses not machines...

Like I said, if my laptop wasn't broken I would go back and watch the race, but I believe there was a definite rail bias, I read somewhere that they fixed the track after the Distaff(if this is incorrect someone say so), maybe that's why Invasior and Bernardini weren't effected by it...

Let's see how some of these come back and run, I think Scuds pointed out one that won already while racing wide, I think we will see many more...

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Actually, I have heard and read it's 3rd off the layoff that's the best and produces the best results...

Yes, a bounce is sometimes a regression back to the mean, but his mean was not good enough to win the race, his best was, but he ran his best by a large margin in the last race and was set for a bounce...It's a theory and sometimes doesn't hold true, because these are horses not machines...

Like I said, if my laptop wasn't broken I would go back and watch the race, but I believe there was a definite rail bias, I read somewhere that they fixed the track after the Distaff(if this is incorrect someone say so), maybe that's why Invasior and Bernardini weren't effected by it...

Let's see how some of these come back and run, I think Scuds pointed out one that won already while racing wide, I think we will see many more...

That would mean he should be sitting on a big one in the De Francis then unless you think the last two have taken a lot out of him.

That previous form was from early in the year which was essentially the extension of a long 3yo season, it isn't like he was running a 106 all year and then suddenly pulled off a 116. He could have just badly needed a break and some time to mature into a very good 4yo.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

That would mean he should be sitting on a big one in the De Francis then unless you think the last two have taken a lot out of him.

That previous form was from early in the year which was essentially the extension of a long 3yo season, it isn't like he was running a 106 all year and then suddenly pulled off a 116. He could have just badly needed a break and some time to mature into a very good 4yo.

I am not looking at Beyers, Thorographs go pull them up they are free...

Depending on when the DeFrancis is, it may not matter, it's 3rd start off of a layoff of 60 days or more, if the Defrancis is in February, he'll be plenty ready to roll...I believe he bounced in the BC, but his rail aided trip, he still got it done...

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I am not looking at Beyers, Thorographs go pull them up they are free...

Depending on when the DeFrancis is, it may not matter, it's 3rd start off of a layoff of 60 days or more, if the Defrancis is in February, he'll be plenty ready to roll...I believe he bounced in the BC, but his rail aided trip, he still got it done...

I'm sure the thorographs show a similar trend, was fairly consistent before the layoff and came back much improved.

The DeFrancis is this weekend.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'm sure the thorographs show a similar trend, was fairly consistent before the layoff and came back much improved.

The DeFrancis is this weekend.

If it's this weekend, he should be okay, because I believe his bounce race was in the BC...

I'll look tonight at the Thoro's and get back to you tomorrow, I have a pretty good memory, from what I remember it was about a 4 point top if not more, but I'll admit if I was wrong on that...