Ateam's Saratoga $100 play-a-day

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

3 of 4 beaten a hanging head. Tired of it. Meet from hell. Bring on Belmont.

Know exactly how you feel. Think you have done a great job handicapping. I've enjoyed your blog. Problem with the Spa is that there are too many races that involve guesswork. Horse attempting things they have never tried. Races at 1 1/8, 1 3/16, two year olds first grass, first dist etc. etc. Add in full fields, racing luck and some of these improbable winners and it is no wonder we can't string a multi together.

[Bogey]

Keep firing away, you've been doing some good work all meet.

[jefff777]

I also am beating my head over that sneaky kitten hanging nag
Cannot believe there was no pass at the wire, thought we were home...

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jefff777

I also am beating my head over that sneaky kitten hanging nag
Cannot believe there was no pass at the wire, thought we were home...

Yes, I was more worried about getting passed from behind by the 8 than not getting by the 7. Sigh.

Thanks guys. I'll see it through even if I'm at my wit's end.

[ateamstupid]

Thursday, August 29

Early Pick 4:

3rd: I'm taking a stand with #3 Little Rocket. Her race two back after breaking last was very good and prompted Hushion to take a shot with her in the Prioress. She wasn't disgraced in there, now she takes a drop in class and gets an extra furlong for her late punch. The lack of speed in the race is a small concern, but Little Rocket has enough tactical speed to keep her in touch to prove best late.

4th: #8 Star Harbour is the horse to beat off back form and a drop after stumbling at the start and rushing into a hot pace last out. #1 Blind Hope makes a lot of sense on the drop back down into claimers after trying a race where the winner got a 105 BSF last time out. The rail draw could be a hindrance, however. #2 Majestic Number has turned into a solid sprinter and should be the inside speed in this spot. He's a question mark at seven furlongs. #6 Schoolyard Dreams is most likely to benefit if the pace heats up.

5th: No issues with #4 Jess Not Jesse as the favorite. He's a classy old gelding who brings his race every time he runs and finally draws inside after wide trips in his last two. There are two others that interest me though: #2 Hebert Hall did no running last out, but the way he ran suggested an equipment problem, now Castellano picks up the mount and a return to his race two back would make him competitive with the favorite at three times the price. I wanted to bet #8 Downtownoscarbrown last time out, but Stall scratched him and now he winds up in a slightly tougher spot. Still have to use him, as he's bred up and down for turf and it's not like he's been a slouch on dirt.

6th: Wide open race. Wouldn't take too short a price on anyone.

$1 3/1,2,6,8/2,4,8/3,4,5,6,8,9,11 $84
$4 3/8/4/6,8,9 $12
Race 5 $4 WIN 8

[pointman]

Hang in there Joey, this meet is about as tough as it gets. I feel your frustration, sometimes we have to shrug it off and move on. Keep up the great work and good luck today!

[jms62]

Really only takes one swing of the bat and you are right back in it.

[ADJMK]

As the announcer at Blue Bonnets used to say "Boom just like that" you are back in business. Nice cold punch P4.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

As the announcer at Blue Bonnets used to say "Boom just like that" you are back in business. Nice cold punch P4.

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Nice play, good luck the next four days.

Thanks! Perhaps self-pity was the key all along.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Thanks! Perhaps self-pity was the key all along.

Wish it would work for me too.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Thursday, August 29

Early Pick 4:

3rd: I'm taking a stand with #3 Little Rocket. Her race two back after breaking last was very good and prompted Hushion to take a shot with her in the Prioress. She wasn't disgraced in there, now she takes a drop in class and gets an extra furlong for her late punch. The lack of speed in the race is a small concern, but Little Rocket has enough tactical speed to keep her in touch to prove best late.

4th: #8 Star Harbour is the horse to beat off back form and a drop after stumbling at the start and rushing into a hot pace last out. #1 Blind Hope makes a lot of sense on the drop back down into claimers after trying a race where the winner got a 105 BSF last time out. The rail draw could be a hindrance, however. #2 Majestic Number has turned into a solid sprinter and should be the inside speed in this spot. He's a question mark at seven furlongs. #6 Schoolyard Dreams is most likely to benefit if the pace heats up.

5th: No issues with #4 Jess Not Jesse as the favorite. He's a classy old gelding who brings his race every time he runs and finally draws inside after wide trips in his last two. There are two others that interest me though: #2 Hebert Hall did no running last out, but the way he ran suggested an equipment problem, now Castellano picks up the mount and a return to his race two back would make him competitive with the favorite at three times the price. I wanted to bet #8 Downtownoscarbrown last time out, but Stall scratched him and now he winds up in a slightly tougher spot. Still have to use him, as he's bred up and down for turf and it's not like he's been a slouch on dirt.

6th: Wide open race. Wouldn't take too short a price on anyone.

$1 3/1,2,6,8/2,4,8/3,4,5,6,8,9,11 $84
$4 3/8/4/6,8,9 $12
Race 5 $4 WIN 8

$.50 Pick 4 pays $80.87 x 10 = $808.70

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

$.50 Pick 4 pays $80.87 x 10 = $808.70

Nice play, good luck the next four days.

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

$.50 Pick 4 pays $80.87 x 10 = $808.70

Great score Ateam!

[ateamstupid]

Saturday, August 31

Liked this card a lot better before the rains came, so I'm just playing a horse who may not be favored that I consider one of the likeliest winners on the card.

Race 5
#2 Grand Arrival comes out of the Big Sugar Soda race that is increasingly looking like one of the best 2-year-old races of the meet. Strong Mandate came back to win easily with a 92 Beyer and Financial Mogul returned to dominate an off-the-turf race earlier today. Grand Arrival ran the 2nd best race that day, breaking dead last and making a big, wide move on the turn, staying on late to get 3rd. Being a big colt and coming out of the Zito barn, he figures to be better 2nd out and stretching out. None of the firsters look too serious.

Race 5
$100 WIN 2

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Saturday, August 31

Liked this card a lot better before the rains came, so I'm just playing a horse who may not be favored that I consider one of the likeliest winners on the card.

Race 5
#2 Grand Arrival comes out of the Big Sugar Soda race that is increasingly looking like one of the best 2-year-old races of the meet. Strong Mandate came back to win easily with a 92 Beyer and Financial Mogul returned to dominate an off-the-turf race earlier today. Grand Arrival ran the 2nd best race that day, breaking dead last and making a big, wide move on the turn, staying on late to get 3rd. Being a big colt and coming out of the Zito barn, he figures to be better 2nd out and stretching out. None of the firsters look too serious.

Race 5
$100 WIN 2

Good luck, hope you're wrong. Live to 5,7,8 $3 pick 3....5,7 are decent scores.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Saturday, August 31

Liked this card a lot better before the rains came, so I'm just playing a horse who may not be favored that I consider one of the likeliest winners on the card.

Race 5
#2 Grand Arrival comes out of the Big Sugar Soda race that is increasingly looking like one of the best 2-year-old races of the meet. Strong Mandate came back to win easily with a 92 Beyer and Financial Mogul returned to dominate an off-the-turf race earlier today. Grand Arrival ran the 2nd best race that day, breaking dead last and making a big, wide move on the turn, staying on late to get 3rd. Being a big colt and coming out of the Zito barn, he figures to be better 2nd out and stretching out. None of the firsters look too serious.

Race 5
$100 WIN 2

Nice job, Joey!

[casp0555]

nice play Joe!

[ateamstupid]

Here we go, doubling up after having to miss yesterday. Will write some postmortem thoughts tomorrow night, but I just want to thank everyone who came along for the ride for the support throughout the meet. It's been trying more often than not and the new job put serious constraints on how much time I could put in, but I love DT for being so receptive to what I do here.

Monday, September 2

9th Race:

I mentioned on Saturday in my endorsement of Grand Arrival how key the Big Sugar Soda race has come up. Four horses have now run back out of it to improve their Beyers, three significantly and three to win.

Strong Mandate 59 92 +33
Financial Mogul 62 81 +19
Grand Arrival 64 77 +13

Big Sugar Soda gets his shot in a fairly weak edition of the Hopeful today, draws well and Mike Smith flies across the country for this one mount today. I'm expecting him to stamp himself as the best 2YO colt on the east coast going into the fall.

Race 9
$160 WIN 6
$20 EX 6/2,8

[Stickhorse]

This SoCal player dabbles a bit with the NYRA circuit. So I have been very interested in your thread and certainly learned a few things that'll help me down the line.

I really look forward to your postmortem.

Hopefully Big Sugar Soda gives you a top effort!

Good luck!

[Scav]

Quick calculations are that you lost $400 while wagering 4k in wagers. Now, with the one company that I know does rebates open to almost anyone (except the great State of Illinois and some other dumb governments), a majority of your wagers were P4's which would have a 9.64% rebate attached to them for Saratoga, you would have pretty much broke even. Win and DD rebates %'s are lower so if you were getting a rebate, you would have probably lost $100 instead of $400.

Personally I think without your time constraints you would have been profitable without the rebate cause you did a hell of a job.

Curious, if you were using NYRA rewards, how does their 'reward' program work?