Ateam's Saratoga $100 play-a-day

[ateamstupid]

Sunday, August 4

Was going to attack the early Pick 4, but scratches have turned it into a much less interesting sequence and one where it's probably best to just play a chalky ticket and punch it several times. That's no fun, so let's dive into the late Pick 4 instead.

8th: The running line for #7 Indian Splendor's last race doesn't do justice how impressive she was. She broke like a rocket and was well clear early, but then began to blow the turn and lost the lead, continued to run wide throughout and still absolutely dominated her field. That was obviously a much weaker group, but a similar effort would make her tough in here, especially since she also should be able to dictate the pace and it's worth noting that Castellano gets off several other contenders to ride her for Servis. #3 Strategic Missile is a little win shy, but she always shows up with her race and is probably in the best form of her career right now. It's fair to question whether she's a little better going longer, but she was 3rd twice at 25-1 at this distance last summer, once behind Madame Giry and once behind Sounds of the City. #6 Normandy chased an extremely fast opening 1/4 last out from which the pacesetter ended up last, beaten 22 lengths and was only beaten 2 3/4 probably going a little further than she wants. She's dangerous on the cutback, but Rosario will have to get her to lay off the top choice early.

9th: Small but interesting version of the Vandy and the bottom line is if #3 Delaunay shows up with his good race, he's going to win. His three races prior to his last all beat this field and he was significantly compromised at the start when losing to Gentlemen's Bet in Iowa. But Amoss has sounded less than thrilled with the way he's looked getting over the track in the AM and as others have noted, this barn has had multiple no-shows in big stakes already this meet, most notably Mylute in the Jim Dandy. He's the A and much the horse to beat, but I'm also including #2 Gentlemen's Bet and #4 Justin Phillip, the latter of whom should be a square price coming off of a poor effort over the quirky CRC surface and a pace-compromised loss in the True North.

10th: #8 Tahoe Lake is going to be a pretty short price in here and there's little doubt that his form he showed towards the end of 2012 would win this. But his return race was nothing to write home about and he's 2-for-20 with 11 minor placings with one of those wins coming via DQ. #1 Bell by the Ridge wasn't good last out either, but ran big when 2nd two back, beating the favorite in the process and is a must-use. #6 Majestic Raffy was unable to catch Plainview 8 days ago, but ran a respectable race and note that his 17-1 victory at Saratoga last summer came on 6 days' rest. I also think #5 Share Out is worth a look at a big price, as he ran a very good 3rd at 38-1 at this level and distance last summer and goes out 3rd off the layoff.

11th: I've had enough of #1 Face the Race, who's had two chances now to get back to his 3/22 GP effort and has been a no-excuse loser as the favorite both times. I prefer #5 Eleven Bravo, a 3YO who moved forward in his 2nd start and could do so again, #7 Campogiovanni, whose race two back would win this and #9 Polaris Dream, who's coming off a career top effort and gets a positive rider switch for connections who don't get bet. I'll throw in turf-meant longshots #3 Elroi and #8 Key Decision as well.

$.50 3,6,7/2,3,4/1,5,6,8/3,5,7,8,9 $90
$1 7/3/1,6,8/5,7,9 $9
Race 10 $1 DBL 6/9

[ateamstupid]

Monday, August 5

Early Pick 4:

2nd: #6 Countercyclical has obviously had some issues to delay his debut until midway through his 3YO season for Klaravich, but he's been working well and is expected to fire his best shot first time out. #7 Boogie Too faces the weakest field of his career today and his last dirt race was a good clear 2nd behind 3YO stakes player Make Your Move, in which he was up on a fast pace and opened a clear lead before tiring late. #8 Spintastic wasn't good last out, but was in a race where nobody except the winner ran, and his previous two dirt races are fast enough to win this. He's another who's been training forwardly since shipping up. If #2 Rum Tum Tugger wins after back-to-back no-excuse losses at 2-5, it'll be entirely predictable based on how this meet's gone, but he's the type of horse who's a waste of money including over time.

3rd: #6 King Cyrus is the kind of Pletcher 2YO you're supposed to beat for several reasons. These 7-furlong races are way different than the 5-6 panel heats he typically dominates where if you can just get out of the gate, you're in great shape, King Cyrus is modestly bred and he reportedly got handled in the AM by Chisholm, who took money and didn't run a step behind Dunkin Bend on Saturday. He'll probably be favored just because of Pletcher and there are several better options in here. #4 Tightly Bridled comes into this off a best-of-69 half-mile over the main track, was bred and sold to be fast. The question is him staying the distance, as he doesn't have any works beyond four furlongs, but he's got a good chance to snap Zito's losing streak with 2YO firsters. #1A Souperfast is a half to Uncle Mo and sold for $500k as a yearling, Mott's firsters have been running OK of late and he just missed getting a first out winner with Souperfast's workmate Quilt on Wednesday. The stretchout to 7 furlongs should suit A.P. Indy progeny #5 Aslan way more than his 5-furlong debut did and he's eligible to take a big step forward 2nd out for Albertrani.

4th: I'm not thrilled with the form of favorites #3 Hoboken Joe or #5 Greeley Pack, but just can't figure out where else you're supposed to go in this weak NYB MSW turf sprint.

5th: This is a wide-open affair where cases can be made for just about everyone in the race. #6 Blossom's Trail looks marginally the horse to beat dropping back down after her ambitious placing against Kitten's Dumplings in the Lake George, but it's not as if she has a discernible advantage on figures against this group. #7 Eddy Gourmet is overdue to get a decent trip and get back to the winner's circle. #8 Red Hot Tweet appears to have found a home on grass, although it's fair to question the validity of the 76 BSF she got for her last-out win. #9 Smittenwithkitten beat a weaker field in her MCL win, but earned a competitive number and ran down speeds who finished 2-3 to get there. #5 Dancing for Glory obviously can win, but is bound to be overbet for Chad Brown. #3 Exchange Cat's 4/27 race probably wins this and she lands in a spot without much confirmed early speed. #1 Elusive Design needs a figure boost, but comes off an MSW win at CNL in which she lost a ton of ground and still won off without much urging. Even #2 Dattts Da Boss appears to be a cut below these, but has run the kind of numbers that wouldn't make her totally impossible.

$.50 6,7,8/1,4,5/3,5/ALL $72
$.50 6,7,8/1,4/3,5/3,6,7 $18
Race 2 $5 DBL 6,8/1

[ateamstupid]

No time for a writeup today, but here's my play:

Race 6 $40 DBL 1/1,9
Race 6 $10 PK3 1/1,9/6

[ateamstupid]

Started a new job yesterday, so haven't had time to handicap like I usually do, not that I could do any worse than I've been doing the last few weeks. The writeups will return this weekend. One thing I will say is don't exclude anything Dominic Galluscio sends out right now.

Thursday, August 8

Sar 7
$.50 PK4 1,2,5,7/4,5,6,7,10/2,3/2,3,4,6,7

[ateamstupid]

Friday, August 9

Early Pick 4:

$1 PK4 1,7,8/1,6/3,4,5/1,6,8,10,11
$2 PK4 7/1/4/1,6,8,10,11

[ateamstupid]

Saturday, August 10

Playing this so that at least one of Wise Dan or Adirondack Dancer, the two most likely winners on the card, has to win. Investing more into beating Wise Dan for two reasons: (a.) he'll be a shorter price and a single on far more tickets than Adirondack Dancer, so it'll be more lucrative if he loses and (b.) he's more likely to be race-ridden into defeat, especially considering his rail draw.

Race 8
$.50 PK4 2,3,5,7,11/1,2,4,8,9/1,3,4,6,7/8 $62.50
$.50 PK4 3,5,11/2,4,8/1/3,4,8,10,11 $22.50

Race 9
$4 PK3 2,4,8/1/8 $12
$1 PK3 2,4,8/1/11 $3

[ateamstupid]

Well, things couldn't have gone much worse for the first half of the meet, with the only good news being that there's a second half of the meet to try to turn things around. One good ticket or 2-3 decent ones would be good enough to get me out of the hole, so I'll keep plugging away and hope my opinions get good again.

Amount Invested: $2,000
Amount Returned: $936.25
Net: -$1,063.75
$2 ROI: $0.94

Early Pick 4:

2nd: Once again, a spot with a potential Pletcher rocketship and a bunch of other horses trained by guys who don't usually have 2YOs cranked first time out. #6 Sweet Whiskey supposedly has looked the best of all the Pletcher 2YO fillies in the mornings and nothing about her says she's likely to be beaten in her debut. #8 Radiant is the only other horse who seems plausible; she's bred to be a good sprinter and had a very strong five-furlong gate breeze 8/1, but she's also trained by Mott, so she'll most likely be better next time than this time.

3rd: #3 Gritty Gal is the horse to beat off the claim for Ramsey/Maker/Rosario after setting a pressured pace last out, but it's tough to see her getting loose in here with #5 Pop Pop's Smyle and #9 Midnightinpositano to her outside and it's not as if her race two back, when afforded an easy lead, was any good. If the top two choices hook up, this becomes a wild race with an opportunity for a big price to come in. #1 Evasive Cat has trouble getting out of the gate, but makes her 2nd start off a long layoff for McLaughiln and has back races that make her competitive. #6 Rodinia makes sense, but she was a disappointment on the turf last out and was vanned off after the race, so I wouldn't take too short a price on her. #8 Southern Symphony ran two OK races going a furlong longer on the dirt before a good try on the turf last out. Midnightinpositano was in that weird race 10 days ago where Dixie Sparkle somehow got loose in a field loaded with speed and never looked back, but her race two back puts her in with a chance and she'll be a big price for Metivier, whose limited stock has run well this meet. #10 Yankeeindixieland appears to be rounding back to her 5/12 and 5/26 efforts, which would give her a shot and last time, she was just way too far back after the first 1/4 to have any say. Even #4 Lenderoflastresort, who appears to be badly off form, could win this facing the easiest field in a dirt sprint she's seen since 4/18. I'm using everyone except #2 Copper Bluff and pressing the 3 and 5.

4th: A lot of guesswork to be done in this 2YO turf MCL, but I'll use the five logicals #1 Racetrack Romance, #2 Cool Vision, #3 Greek God, #4 Lieutenant Seany O and #8 Frogman Mel in equal strength and root for the biggest price.

5th: If #3 She's Stones Sis runs back to her last race, she'll win, as she shook off a bunch of other speed and narrowly lost to Galiana, who returned to win her next start on Friday. #6 Motion Lounge is the only one competitive with the favorite on paper as her races two and three-back make her a threat, but those both came on the inner track and she hasn't been seen since she bled through Lasix 150 days ago. I'll use #1 Pennymine #7 Tina's Note and #9 My Unbridled Storm as C's.

$.50 6/1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10/1,2,3,4,8/3,6 $40
$4.50 6/3,5/1,2,3,4,8/3 $45
$.50 6/3,5/1,2,3,4,8/1,7,9 $15

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Well, things couldn't have gone much worse for the first half of the meet, with the only good news being that there's a second half of the meet to try to turn things around. One good ticket or 2-3 decent ones would be good enough to get me out of the hole, so I'll keep plugging away and hope my opinions get good again.

Amount Invested: $2,000
Amount Returned: $936.25
Net: -$1,063.75
$2 ROI: $0.94

Early Pick 4:

2nd: Once again, a spot with a potential Pletcher rocketship and a bunch of other horses trained by guys who don't usually have 2YOs cranked first time out. #6 Sweet Whiskey supposedly has looked the best of all the Pletcher 2YO fillies in the mornings and nothing about her says she's likely to be beaten in her debut. #8 Radiant is the only other horse who seems plausible; she's bred to be a good sprinter and had a very strong five-furlong gate breeze 8/1, but she's also trained by Mott, so she'll most likely be better next time than this time.

3rd: #3 Gritty Gal is the horse to beat off the claim for Ramsey/Maker/Rosario after setting a pressured pace last out, but it's tough to see her getting loose in here with #5 Pop Pop's Smyle and #9 Midnightinpositano to her outside and it's not as if her race two back, when afforded an easy lead, was any good. If the top two choices hook up, this becomes a wild race with an opportunity for a big price to come in. #1 Evasive Cat has trouble getting out of the gate, but makes her 2nd start off a long layoff for McLaughiln and has back races that make her competitive. #6 Rodinia makes sense, but she was a disappointment on the turf last out and was vanned off after the race, so I wouldn't take too short a price on her. #8 Southern Symphony ran two OK races going a furlong longer on the dirt before a good try on the turf last out. Midnightinpositano was in that weird race 10 days ago where Dixie Sparkle somehow got loose in a field loaded with speed and never looked back, but her race two back puts her in with a chance and she'll be a big price for Metivier, whose limited stock has run well this meet. #10 Yankeeindixieland appears to be rounding back to her 5/12 and 5/26 efforts, which would give her a shot and last time, she was just way too far back after the first 1/4 to have any say. Even #4 Lenderoflastresort, who appears to be badly off form, could win this facing the easiest field in a dirt sprint she's seen since 4/18. I'm using everyone except #2 Copper Bluff and pressing the 3 and 5.

4th: A lot of guesswork to be done in this 2YO turf MCL, but I'll use the five logicals #1 Racetrack Romance, #2 Cool Vision, #3 Greek God, #4 Lieutenant Seany O and #8 Frogman Mel in equal strength and root for the biggest price.

5th: If #3 She's Stones Sis runs back to her last race, she'll win, as she shook off a bunch of other speed and narrowly lost to Galiana, who returned to win her next start on Friday. #6 Motion Lounge is the only one competitive with the favorite on paper as her races two and three-back make her a threat, but those both came on the inner track and she hasn't been seen since she bled through Lasix 150 days ago. I'll use #1 Pennymine #7 Tina's Note and #9 My Unbridled Storm as C's.

$.50 6/1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10/1,2,3,4,8/3,6 $40
$4.50 6/3,5/1,2,3,4,8/3 $45
$.50 6/3,5/1,2,3,4,8/1,7,9 $15

Pick 4 pays $95.12

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Monday, August 12

Race 10
$100 WIN 4

$3.80 x 50 = $190 Brick by brick..

[ateamstupid]

Monday, August 12

Race 10
$100 WIN 4

[ateamstupid]

Wednesday, August 14

Off the turf screwed up many of my aims for today, so sticking to a narrow Pick 3 play.

Race 3
$2 PK3 4,5,6/1,3,5/2,3,4 $54
$2 PK3 5/1,3,5/2,3,4 $18
$6 PK3 5/5/2,3,4 $18
$10 PK3 5/5/2 $10

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Wednesday, August 14

Off the turf screwed up many of my aims for today, so sticking to a narrow Pick 3 play.

Race 3
$2 PK3 4,5,6/1,3,5/2,3,4 $54
$2 PK3 5/1,3,5/2,3,4 $18
$6 PK3 5/5/2,3,4 $18
$10 PK3 5/5/2 $10

$2 Pick 3 pays $25.40 x 10 = $254

[ateamstupid]

Thanks for the support guys. Plenty of time to turn this into a good meet and hopefully gaining some momentum.

Amount Invested: $2,300
Amount Returned: $1,475.37
Net: -$824.63
$2 ROI: $1.28

[ateamstupid]

Thursday, August 15

Early Pick 4:

3rd: #3 Pure Sensation clearly the horse to beat off his debut, when he dueled 3-wide with returning Saratoga Special winner Corfu through an extremely fast pace and never quit trying, finishing just a half-length back at the wire. He figures to blast out of the gate, hug the rail and put on a strong 5-furlong speed display. The other horse I'd consider is #9 Aarons Orient out of the same race, but he was clearly inferior to Pure Sensation that day. The only possible excuse I can give him is he didn't like being in between horses and drawing outside today, could sit a more comfortable trip.

4th: #1 Sneaky Blowout, #7 All That and #8 Brabbham are all very logical, but I'll also include #4 Rap d'Oro, who ran two very good races over the winter before a poor grass try and a disastrous run behind Moreno on the Belmont undercard. Hushion is always to be respected and if the layoff has straightened Rap d'Oro out, he's very dangerous at a good number.

5th: Nothing wrong with M/L favorite #3 Flowing Mane, but it's not as if he's significantly faster than these and there are several other options. #5 Mr. Starr's Report is a typical Jack Fisher longshot, with competitive races on the go-back and a useful prep at CNL last time out, reaching out to Lezcano is a good sign. #6 Summer Sands has a good turf pedigree and #9 Mr Algebra and #10 Saved the Best are both logical.

6th: #5 Much Stronger the clear horse to beat and I'll press with him, but he comes off a perfect-trip win going shorter and is facing a tougher group this time. He's also had problems with bearing out in the past. I like #8 Jumpinofftheedge at a big price. His debut was an enormous effort for a Phil Serpe 1st time starter and in his 2nd race, he chased an eye-popping pace set by Willy Elliott; lands in a race today with much less speed and could draw a great trip from the outside. #3 Ration chased a fast pace while wide last time out and ran better than it looks on paper. If there is a meltdown, #4 Perilous Indian could benefit, stretching out a furlong after a good close against some nice 3YO sprinters last time out.

$.50 3,9/1,4,7,8/3,5,6,9,10/3,4,5,8 $80
$1 3/1,4,7,8/3,5,6,9,10/5 $20