Beyer: The worst bad-beat story of all time

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The probable feed was actually never incorrect. It was based upon, at the time, the #11 being the favorite (which he was for a while in the early betting). For those who watch the races at Louisiana Downs, anytime an Al Stall ends-up the favorite is no surprise.

Obviously I would have never added the jackpot to my call nor would we have shown probables prior to the race if any of us had any idea this might have happened. The same set of probables were shown on every ADW out there because they all come from the same source.

I feel bad about it all, but nobody did anything wrong... it's just, like I've said, an awful set of circumstances.

If a track offers a bet and does not know all scenarios, isn't that doing something wrong?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

If a track offers a bet and does not know all scenarios, isn't that doing something wrong?

Wrong would have been an incorrect payout, which didn't happen here. We show the same probables for all multi-race bets day-in and day-out. Scratches happen, alter the probable and subsequently impact the payoff. In this case, it was a massive payoff that got knocked.

My first thought it was to find-out whether or not tote can support updating those probables every x-seconds, similar to have the probables for Ex/DD are shown, but that is really just a band-aid.

[blackthroatedwind]

If you look at Pick-4 willpays often and carefully, you will see situations where all scratched horses show a payoff equal to the favorite in the pool, yet sometimes this horse does not end up going off favored, and those willpays are thus "incorrect" and the payoff to the eventual post time payoff, should it win, will likely be lower as well. I had never thought of how this could affect one of these jackpot bets, and in this extreme example, we see another potentially problematic situation.

[Alabama Stakes]

about 20 years ago, my brother hit a pick 6 where his hoss got scratched and he got the favorite. Apparently someone at philly was in the same situation. The guy at philly had a bankroll though, and already had the fave so he bet enough on the second choice to make him the post time fave. Instead of getting the "bad fave" he got the new fave and ends up hitting it for $78k plus another $20k on 5 out of 6's. If that guy at philly hadn't been alert, known the rules, or not had a fat knot of money....no score.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

about 20 years ago, my brother hit a pick 6 where his hoss got scratched and he got the favorite. Apparently someone at philly was in the same situation. The guy at philly had a bankroll though, and already had the fave so he bet enough on the second choice to make him the post time fave. Instead of getting the "bad fave" he got the new fave and ends up hitting it for $78k plus another $20k on 5 out of 6's. If that guy at philly hadn't been alert, known the rules, or not had a fat knot of money....no score.

Well yes as I said before, you can't do this unless you have the means, and the pools aren't huge. In LA, you can move them pretty easily.

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Well yes as I said before, you can't do this unless you have the means, and the pools aren't huge. In LA, you can move them pretty easily.

This tells you one thing, dont put money into a bet like this at a track where the pools can be manipulated by a small amount of money to make a certain horse the favorite, and then changes the outcome of being only the only live ticket!! Makes you wonder!!

[Kasept]

Beyer assails 'Jackpots' in spritely ATR turn Tuesday..

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you look at Pick-4 willpays often and carefully, you will see situations where all scratched horses show a payoff equal to the favorite in the pool, yet sometimes this horse does not end up going off favored, and those willpays are thus "incorrect" and the payoff to the eventual post time payoff, should it win, will likely be lower as well. I had never thought of how this could affect one of these jackpot bets, and in this extreme example, we see another potentially problematic situation.

This occurred with the payout on the Rainbow-6 on closing day at Gulfstream. When will pays were posted, the payout to the eventual winner was about $1700 (she opened the favorite) but when the eventual runner-up was bet down to favorite status, the winning wager returned over $4200. An extreme example, but as you siad, it does happen when the "early" favorite is not the same as the post-time favorite.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

This occurred with the payout on the Rainbow-6 on closing day at Gulfstream. When will pays were posted, the payout to the eventual winner was about $1700 (she opened the favorite) but when the eventual runner-up was bet down to favorite status, the winning wager returned over $4200. An extreme example, but as you siad, it does happen when the "early" favorite is not the same as the post-time favorite.

It's a good example, however, because it shows how it can work both ways. We had a pick-4 in NY, I think in 2012, with a similar situation.