Hwjb's betting diary

[Hwjb]

Back from a few days off and raring to go again, ethusiasm very much boosted by the incredible performance of Kauto Star at the weekend. Watching truly great horses like that is why I love racing!

Ludlow:
1:20 She's Our Native 4pts win
1:50 Backbord 1pt win
3:20 Win A Rose 3pts win

Southwell:
2:40 Johannesburg Cat 2pts win
3:10 Trinity Rose 2pts win

[Hwjb]

Don't know why I bother with the all-weather Flat racing at this time of year....STICK TO THE JUMPS!!! Nevertheless that's the 200pt barrier reached.


Ludlow:
1:20 She's Our Native 4pts win: 1st of 5 @ 13/8: +6.5pts
1:50 Backbord 1pt win: 1st of 10 @ 5/6: +0.83pts
3:20 Win A Rose 3pts win: 1st of 16 @ 11/8: +4.13pts

Southwell:
2:40 Johannesburg Cat 2pts win: last of 6: -2pts
3:10 Trinity Rose 2pts win: 2nd of 6: -2pts

Day Total: +7.46pts
Total: +202.09pts

[Hwjb]

Sedgefield

12:50: Bougoure: 4pts win
2:15: Persian Point 2pts win
2:50: Negus de Beaumont 5pts win
3:20: Jballingall 3pts e/w
Willie The Fish 1pt lay

Kempton

1:00: The Big Canadian 2pts win
2:05: Inishturk 3pts win
2:40: The Luder 7pts win
3:10: Big Rob 5pts win
3:45: Tashkandi 3pts win

Southwell

12:50: Haroldini 0.5pt e/w

[Hwjb]

Total Bets: 168
Wins: 51
30.36%

Total Inv: 492.5pts
Total Profit: 188.63pts
POI: 38.30%


Total Lays: 21
Wins (ie laid horses that lost): 16
76.19%

Total Inv: 158.44pts
Total Profit: 13.46pts
POI: 8.5%

Combined:
Investments: 189
Successful Investments: 67 (35.45%)
Total Invested: 650.94pts
Total Profit: 202.09pts
Total POI: 31.05%

[Hwjb]

Good times!!


Sedgefield

12:50: Bougoure: 4pts win: 2nd of 10 @ 1/1: -4pts
2:15: Persian Point 2pts win: 4th of 10 @ 7/2: -2pts
2:50: Negus de Beaumont 5pts win: 1st of 8 @ 4/5: +4pts
3:20: Jballingall 3pts e/w: 1st of 15 @ 5/1: +18.75pts
Willie The Fish 1pt lay: 9th of 15 @ 8.2/1: +1pt

Kempton

1:00: The Big Canadian 2pts win: 2nd of 13 @ 11/4: -2pts
2:05: Inishturk 3pts win: 1st of 12 @ 7/1: +21pts
2:40: The Luder 7pts win: 1st of 8 @ 4/6: +4.66pts
3:10: Big Rob 5pts win: Pulled up @ 6/4: -5pts
3:45: Tashkandi 3pts win: 1st of 16 @ 9/4: +6.75 pts

Southwell

12:50: Haroldini 0.5pt e/w: 2nd of 14 @ 25/1: +2pts


Daily Total: +45.16pts
Total: +247.25pts

[Hwjb]

Simply can't envisage defeat for this well handicapped horse for his excellent new yard (Gary Moore)

Lingfield
1:50: Myson 10pts win.

[Hwjb]

24/11/06

Musselburgh:
2:30 Kings Quay 4pts win
3:00 Lascar de Ferbet 3pts win

Newbury:
1:35 Wogan 1pt win
2:10 Oscar Park 4pts win
Nyborg Madrik 4pts win
2:40 Gungadu 8pts win
3:10 Lou du Moulin Mas 6pts win

Wolves:
1:40 A Little Bit Left 4pts win

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

24/11/06

Musselburgh:
2:30 Kings Quay 4pts win
3:00 Lascar de Ferbet 3pts win

Newbury:
1:35 Wogan 1pt win
2:10 Oscar Park 4pts win
Nyborg Madrik 4pts win
2:40 Gungadu 8pts win
3:10 Lou du Moulin Mas 6pts win

Wolves:
1:40 A Little Bit Left 4pts win

Hwjb,

It seems to me you have been betting more units than you did initially. Here's what you wrote in answer to an early question of mine:

Originally Posted by Hwjb

My points are on a simple scale from 1-10. I very rarely bet 7+ pts, and will probably only have a 5pt bet once a week or so...wanted to get this off with a juicy bet today, and as I speak Cheeky Lad has romped home! My wage is pretty poor so I can't afford to bet that heavily, and therefore 1pt = £10 for me.

This week you've already made 6 bets of 5+ pts (since 11/21). The 1-2 pt plays, which were the bulk of your picks when you started, are now the exception.

This is natural, and even makes sense from a math standpoint if you have been building a bankroll. But if one reason you are keeping a bet log is for the purpose of seeing how skilled you are in the long run, then raising your bets throws a lot more uncertainty into interpreting your results. The more your results hinge on just a few races, the less meaningful they are. In your case, you had one whopper where you collected something like 124 units. But of the remaining 103 units profit, I think no single race contributed more than 35 pts. That makes your result more impressive than if you were having lots of 5-10 pt plays that were returning 50+ pts when they win.

--Dunbar

[Hwjb]

Musselburgh:
2:30 Kings Quay 4pts win: 3rd of 11 @ 5/4: -4pts
3:00 Lascar de Ferbet 3pts win: unseated @ 3/1: -3pts

Newbury:
1:35 Wogan 1pt win: 4th of 6 @ 8/1: -1pt
2:10 Oscar Park 4pts win: 2nd of 21 @ 8/1: -4pts. Can't believe Tom Doyle failed to win on this, gave the leader 10 lengths starts then outfought in the finish. That boy really needs to get to the gym!
Nyborg Madrik 4pts win: 13th of 21 @ 33/1: -4pts
2:40 Gungadu 8pts win: 2nd of 5 @ 1/2: -8pts. THOMAS!!!
3:10 Lou du Moulin Mas 6pts win: 1st of 9 @ 2/1: +12pts

Wolves:
1:40 A Little Bit Left 4pts win: 1st of 9 @ 2/1: +8pts

Total: -4pts
Total: +233.25pts

[Hwjb]

The horse dogged it!!

Lingfield
1:50: Myson 10pts win: 3rd of 5 @ 11/8: -10pts


Total: +237.25pts

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

Day Total: +7.46pts
Total: +202.09pts

Up over 200 units. Ya know, I'm starting to think you know what you're doing! ;>)

Congrats again on an outstanding job of capping!

--Dunbar

[Hwjb]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Up over 200 units. Ya know, I'm starting to think you know what you're doing! ;>)

Congrats again on an outstanding job of capping!

--Dunbar

Thanks Dunbar!

Having a good streak at the moment...expect it to change very soon! Really enjoying putting the work in at the moment, think that's the secret, that and trying not to do too much. Also, it may sound silly, but have cut down my drinking, there's no more surefire way of backing losers than waking up with a banging head!
The jumps season has been really good so far...I know it wont last forever, so will try and enjoy the good times for as long as they may last!!