5/4: Churchill Downs (139th Kentucky Derby)

[pointman]

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

[asudevil]

SB,

Great job as usual. Appreciate the time and effort that you put forth during the two week run- up.

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by pointman

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

Really? Berlino Di Tiger will get the lead, and Regally Ready is quicker than Southern Dude. I am not sold on a horse running in restricted races at FG and races at Haw. That said, I dont have a great alternative in the race.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Really? Berlino Di Tiger will get the lead, and Regally Ready is quicker than Southern Dude. I am not sold on a horse running in restricted races at FG and races at Haw. That said, I dont have a great alternative in the race.

Frankly, I had a hard time making a case for a winner in this race. Assuming Berlino Di Tiger gets the lead, his form suggests to me that he will not be there at the end and Southern Dude will be sitting a great trip close to the pace. The 1 hole gives Leparoux a lot of options considering that there is not much early pace here, and I say that realizing that Leparoux is not the ideal rider in this situation.

I don't think that Regally Ready can get the lead over Southern Dude considering the post positions. At the end of the day, I get the feeling that Southern Dude will go off lower than 10-1.

[tomm5647]

Steve: Thank you for your insight and selections as always. Best of luck today.
Tom

[Uncle Daddy]

Another Triple Crown effort Steve. Can't thank you enough! Best of luck

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Really? Berlino Di Tiger will get the lead, and Regally Ready is quicker than Southern Dude. I am not sold on a horse running in restricted races at FG and races at Haw. That said, I dont have a great alternative in the race.

Agree 100% and surprised more people don't feel the same. . . When you watch his two U.S. starts, he was trying desperately to get to the front, but just had too much other speed trying to do the same. I can't imagine Julien guns that hard to deny him, and it might not matter because his horse just doesn't seem as fast. I know Berlino Di Tiger's two U.S. starts look pretty terrible on paper, but I think he's going to run a lot differently with an easier trip. Also--look at his Brazilian races--all came at 5f and on soft or heavy ground.

[casp0555]

Great job Steve the last couple of weeks. Thanks again for your unending efforts to provide as much information as possible, good luck and Happy Derby Day

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by asudevil

SB, Great job as usual. Appreciate the time and effort that you put forth during the two week run- up.

Originally Posted by tomm5647

Steve: Thank you for your insight and selections as always. Best of luck today. Tom

Originally Posted by Uncle Daddy

Another Triple Crown effort Steve. Can't thank you enough! Best of luck

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Great job Steve!

Originally Posted by casp0555

Great job Steve the last couple of weeks. Thanks again for your unending efforts to provide as much information as possible, good luck and Happy Derby Day

HB, Tomm, U/D, Tig, Billy...

Thanks very much guys.. Always a privilege to be here trying to provide all the info and atmosphere possible. Best of luck today! Weather is turning in the wrong direction, so it may get a little wonky. Still should be a great afternoon..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pointman

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Really? Berlino Di Tiger will get the lead, and Regally Ready is quicker than Southern Dude. I am not sold on a horse running in restricted races at FG and races at Haw. That said, I dont have a great alternative in the race.

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Don't you almost have to send from the rail? I like him too but I assume he will get bet down.

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I hope I dont jinx you but I love this horse in this race. Best of luck today Nick. Off to pocono downs in about an hour

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Agree 100% and surprised more people don't feel the same. . . When you watch his two U.S. starts, he was trying desperately to get to the front, but just had too much other speed trying to do the same. I can't imagine Julien guns that hard to deny him, and it might not matter because his horse just doesn't seem as fast. I know Berlino Di Tiger's two U.S. starts look pretty terrible on paper, but I think he's going to run a lot differently with an easier trip. Also--look at his Brazilian races--all came at 5f and on soft or heavy ground.

Since there seems to be a lot of confusion about this group, Maker/Rosario is probably the right direction. The more I look at it, the more likely it seems you get one of the late runners up, especially since we're all grappling with who the speed of the speed will be.. G/L.. Just be glad this isn't in the P5.

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Since there seems to be a lot of confusion about this group, Maker/Rosario is probably the right direction. The more I look at it, the more likely it seems you get one of the late runners up, especially since we're all grappling with who the speed of the speed will be.. G/L.. Just be glad this isn't in the P5.

I think you are right about this. This is the type of race where it looks like there is not much speed on paper so everyone guns and the pace collapses. Think I am going to play it that way now.

[pointman]

7/2 currently on Southern Dude. As I thought, there is no way that horse goes off near 10-1.

[luv2gambl]

Steve,

Thanks again for all your efforts. Listening to your show led me straight to the Derby exacta.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by pointman

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

I hope I dont jinx you but I love this horse in this race. Best of luck today Nick. Off to pocono downs in about an hour

[tiggerv]

Great job Steve!

Originally Posted by pointman

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

Don't you almost have to send from the rail? I like him too but I assume he will get bet down.