3rd off layoff

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I think it's an incredibly overrated statistic in this context.

Where a horse is in his form cycle is just about irrelevant in a race where every horse has been trained with the goal of running their best on this one day. At this level, it's only about who's fast enough, not how many races they've had since their last horizontal line in a Racing Form.

I would add in racing luck as well, which is difficult to quantify.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Revidere

I would add in racing luck as well, which is difficult to quantify.

That too. In a stampede race like the Derby, I would consider a horse progressively more likely to find trouble the further he is from the lead.