6/8 (BEL) 145th Belmont Stakes: Field at 14 as 'Tiz' passes

[Calzone Lord]

The would be post time favorite Dreaming of Julia is out.

Under Graded Earnings -- the Derby field would look like this right now:

Dreaming of Julia
Goldencents
Lines of Battle
Overanalyze
Orb
Verrazano
Revolutionary
Java's War
Vyjack
Itsmyluckyday
Govenor Charlie
Will Take Charge
Oxbow
Black Onyx
Mylute
Den's Legacy
Super Ninety Nine
Frac Daddy
Normandy Invasion
Power Broker

[Calzone Lord]

So basically... Dreaming of Julia, Den's Legacy, and Power Broker are out in favor of Falling Sky, Charming Kitten, and Palace Malice.

[Kasept]

Den's Legacy not coming appears to be a post-race status decision because after other declarations, he would be in the 20.

In terms of Dreaming of Julia, I got the feeling from Pletcher that he was very comfortable with not being put in the position to have to decide on a Derby run for her.

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Den's Legacy not coming appears to be a post-race status decision because after other declarations, he would be in the 20.

In terms of Dreaming of Julia, I got the feeling from Pletcher that he was very comfortable with not being put in the position to have to decide on a Derby run for her.

If they happen to run Den's Legacy, I hope they try different tactics and try to make one run instead if pressing early then have nothing late.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

If they happen to run Den's Legacy, I hope they try different tactics and try to make one run instead if pressing early then have nothing late.

It's going to take a lot more than that for Den's Legacy to be remotely competitive. He stinks.

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's going to take a lot more than that for Den's Legacy to be remotely competitive. He stinks.

Maybe he does not belong in the Derby, but I think he is going to be a useful horse in the future and most likely on the turf. I sure would like to own a horse like him with the money he has won!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's going to take a lot more than that for Den's Legacy to be remotely competitive. He stinks.

He stinks on the wrong surface. He would be a good turf horse with a different trainer

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The would be post time favorite Dreaming of Julia is out.

Under Graded Earnings -- the Derby field would look like this right now:

Dreaming of Julia
Goldencents
Lines of Battle
Overanalyze
Orb
Verrazano
Revolutionary
Java's War
Vyjack
Itsmyluckyday
Govenor Charlie
Will Take Charge
Oxbow
Black Onyx
Mylute
Den's Legacy
Super Ninety Nine
Frac Daddy
Normandy Invasion
Power Broker

Wouldn't that be a dream betting scenario? I would have bet against Dreaming of Julia with both fists in the Derby.

Paul

[RockHardTen1985]

Can we get an Oaks probable list? I think Julia will be in tough against her own sex.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Wouldn't that be a dream betting scenario? I would have bet against Dreaming of Julia with both fists in the Derby.

Paul

If she wasn't a Pletcher horse going Gulfstream to Churchill ... I'd probably want to key her on top in the Derby.

There are absolutely zero question marks about the validity of her last performance. It can be quantified and it was a lot better than anyone elses best performance.

The question obviously is: Can she repeat it?

The Kentucky Oaks is a race not as well suited to her running style. It's overflowing with speed. All of the preps have been won impressively by horses with the same running style as hers.

The Kentucky Derby has such a relatively paceless look right now ... that Oxbow might be the most likely pacesetter.

I think if you're that dead set against Dreaming of Julia's Derby chances... find a closer in the Oaks and bet against her there.

The Oaks will be a demanding race because she's going to be stalking a couple of horses who are free running and have already posted huge figures sprinting. She'll pay a huge price for it in the stretch.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

If she wasn't a Pletcher horse going Gulfstream to Churchill ... I'd probably want to key her on top in the Derby.

There are absolutely zero question marks about the validity of her last performance. It can be quantified and it was a lot better than anyone elses best performance.

The question obviously is: Can she repeat it?

The Kentucky Oaks is a race not as well suited to her running style. It's overflowing with speed. All of the preps have been won impressively by horses with the same running style as hers.

The Kentucky Derby has such a relatively paceless look right now ... that Oxbow might be the most likely pacesetter.

I think if you're that dead set against Dreaming of Julia's Derby chances... find a closer in the Oaks and bet against her there.

The Oaks will be a demanding race because she's going to be stalking a couple of horses who are free running and have already posted huge figures sprinting. She'll pay a huge price for it in the stretch.

What was up with Oxbows ride Saturday? I think in the Derby he can pull a soft trip just off GoldenCents. At a big price now!!!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

What was up with Oxbows ride Saturday? I think in the Derby he can pull a soft trip just off GoldenCents. At a big price now!!!

i don't know, what was up with it?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't know, what was up with it?

For starters Doug just said he could be setting the pace in the derby. He didn't sniff the lead on Saturday. At what point was he given an opportunity to win?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

For starters Doug just said he could be setting the pace in the derby. He didn't sniff the lead on Saturday. At what point was he given an opportunity to win?

around the turn for home.
and yeah, he could be on the lead, if he breaks well, and has a post nearer the inside. i'm not sure what you think the jock could have done with oxbow given his starting position in the ark derby. he wasn't the only early speed in that race.

[Kasept]

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- CURRENT FIELD -- SUNDAY (4/21)

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Govenor Charlie (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
12. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
13. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
14. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
15. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/Victor Lebron)
16. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
17. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
18. Super Ninety Nine (Baffert/TBA)
19. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Luis Saez)
20. Den's Legacy (Bob Baffert/TBA)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
22. Winning Cause (Todd Pletcher/TBA)
23. Code West (Bob Baffert/TBA)
24. Tiz a Minister (Paul Aguirre/Joe Talamo)
25. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/BJ Hernandez)

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

If she wasn't a Pletcher horse going Gulfstream to Churchill ... I'd probably want to key her on top in the Derby.

There are absolutely zero question marks about the validity of her last performance. It can be quantified and it was a lot better than anyone elses best performance.

The question obviously is: Can she repeat it?

The Kentucky Oaks is a race not as well suited to her running style. It's overflowing with speed. All of the preps have been won impressively by horses with the same running style as hers.

The Kentucky Derby has such a relatively paceless look right now ... that Oxbow might be the most likely pacesetter.

I think if you're that dead set against Dreaming of Julia's Derby chances... find a closer in the Oaks and bet against her there.

The Oaks will be a demanding race because she's going to be stalking a couple of horses who are free running and have already posted huge figures sprinting. She'll pay a huge price for it in the stretch.

You hit it on the head. The history of Pletcher horses running monster races in Florida and then repeating them elsewhere is not good. At a short price, I will certainly be playing against.

Paul