6/8 (BEL) 145th Belmont Stakes: Field at 14 as 'Tiz' passes

[Calzone Lord]

I'd be surprised if Charming Kitten runs.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'd be surprised if Charming Kitten runs.

Why? I don't think Ramsey will pass it up even if he knows the horse is hopeless.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Why? I don't think Ramsey will pass it up even if he knows the horse is hopeless.

A son of Kitten's Joy who has never started on dirt before ... you'd think Pletcher would be able to talk him out of it...especially with so many rich spots for 3yo's routing on turf and poly later on in the year.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Why? I don't think Ramsey will pass it up even if he knows the horse is hopeless.

it wouldn't be the only hopeless case to be entered.

[hi_im_god]

horseracingnation put together a nice side by side comparison.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/con...takes_earnings

under the new system, it looks like they traded out den's legacy, dynamic sky, he's had enough and power broker for falling sky, frac daddy, normandy invasion, and palace malice. all pending the lexington and derby trial, of course.

hard to argue that isn't an improvement.

[Calzone Lord]

The would be post time favorite Dreaming of Julia is out.

Under Graded Earnings -- the Derby field would look like this right now:

Dreaming of Julia
Goldencents
Lines of Battle
Overanalyze
Orb
Verrazano
Revolutionary
Java's War
Vyjack
Itsmyluckyday
Govenor Charlie
Will Take Charge
Oxbow
Black Onyx
Mylute
Den's Legacy
Super Ninety Nine
Frac Daddy
Normandy Invasion
Power Broker

[Calzone Lord]

So basically... Dreaming of Julia, Den's Legacy, and Power Broker are out in favor of Falling Sky, Charming Kitten, and Palace Malice.

[Kasept]

Den's Legacy not coming appears to be a post-race status decision because after other declarations, he would be in the 20.

In terms of Dreaming of Julia, I got the feeling from Pletcher that he was very comfortable with not being put in the position to have to decide on a Derby run for her.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The would be post time favorite Dreaming of Julia is out.

Under Graded Earnings -- the Derby field would look like this right now:

Dreaming of Julia
Goldencents
Lines of Battle
Overanalyze
Orb
Verrazano
Revolutionary
Java's War
Vyjack
Itsmyluckyday
Govenor Charlie
Will Take Charge
Oxbow
Black Onyx
Mylute
Den's Legacy
Super Ninety Nine
Frac Daddy
Normandy Invasion
Power Broker

Wouldn't that be a dream betting scenario? I would have bet against Dreaming of Julia with both fists in the Derby.

Paul

[RockHardTen1985]

Can we get an Oaks probable list? I think Julia will be in tough against her own sex.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Wouldn't that be a dream betting scenario? I would have bet against Dreaming of Julia with both fists in the Derby.

Paul

If she wasn't a Pletcher horse going Gulfstream to Churchill ... I'd probably want to key her on top in the Derby.

There are absolutely zero question marks about the validity of her last performance. It can be quantified and it was a lot better than anyone elses best performance.

The question obviously is: Can she repeat it?

The Kentucky Oaks is a race not as well suited to her running style. It's overflowing with speed. All of the preps have been won impressively by horses with the same running style as hers.

The Kentucky Derby has such a relatively paceless look right now ... that Oxbow might be the most likely pacesetter.

I think if you're that dead set against Dreaming of Julia's Derby chances... find a closer in the Oaks and bet against her there.

The Oaks will be a demanding race because she's going to be stalking a couple of horses who are free running and have already posted huge figures sprinting. She'll pay a huge price for it in the stretch.