GP P6 carryover

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Why even bother with it until closing day?

You either need to play an extremely large ticket and get extremely fortunate, or you are making a disadvantageous long-term bet.

It's sucker bait until closing day.

As I stated last time around, I wholeheartedly disagree.

Here's the rationale: would you rather play at a poker table with no rake, but with 9 players of equal high ability? Or at a table with 25% taken out of every pot but 3-4 of the players overbetting losing hands every hand?

Once the carryover reaches the 7 figure mark, the bet has been paying well over the parlay. Yesterday, parlay+50% despite short fields and tough favorites. Today, 3X the parlay. Sunday, 2X the parlay.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Once the carryover reaches the 7 figure mark, the bet has been paying well over the parlay.

What type of multi-win wager, even over just a 3-race sequence, doesn't pay well over the parlay?

Who, of sane mind, would ever make a parlay on six-straight races on a card?

Phil, of course one 52% bite is better than six separate bites of 16%.

However, neither option is even remotely attractive...EVER.

I get your point, there is a lot of people sending in foolish and excessive coverage ... that still is merely lipstick on a pig.

How do the 50-cent pick 5's perform versus the parlay? Obviously MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better ... and it's over one-less race.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by philcski

As I stated last time around, I wholeheartedly disagree.

Here's the rationale: would you rather play at a poker table with no rake, but with 9 players of equal high ability? Or at a table with 25% taken out of every pot but 3-4 of the players overbetting losing hands every hand?

Once the carryover reaches the 7 figure mark, the bet has been paying well over the parlay. Yesterday, parlay+50% despite short fields and tough favorites. Today, 3X the parlay. Sunday, 2X the parlay.

considering that takeout on the win bet is applied 6x to a parlay, i think you might be setting a low bar for determining what constitutes a good return.

i'm not against this bet in any manner. it doesn't appear to have cannibalized handle elsewhere. if people want to have fun with it, i'm all for that.

but whatever favorable return you think you see now, how much greater is it going to be when instead of holding out 40%, you're getting all that held back money added in?

for me, anticipating the last day is a lot more fun than tossing money at it now.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

considering that takeout on the win bet is applied 6x to a parlay, i think you might be setting a low bar for determining what constitutes a good return.

Very low standards.

And those are brutally difficult sequence of races they use.

The Pick 5's at Santa Anita, for instance, are the opening five races and offer a lot of smaller fields and sometimes non-competitive races.

Look at the last completed card at SA for instance, March 24th.

Race #1: 4 horse field, winner is 6/5
Race #2: 8 horse field, winner is 5/1
Race #3: 4 horse field, winner is 9/5
Race #4: 6 horse field, winner is 9/5
Race #5: 10 horse field, winner is 11/1

The pick 5 pays $6,331.80 for $2 ... or $1,582.95 for fifty cents.

Instead of five very shabby races... Gulfstream gives you mostly tough races with larger fields and invites people to stupidly spread.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

What type of multi-win wager, even over just a 3-race sequence, doesn't pay well over the parlay?

Who, of sane mind, would ever make a parlay on six-straight races on a card?

Phil, of course one 52% bite is better than six separate bites of 16%.

However, neither option is even remotely attractive...EVER.

I get your point, there is a lot of people sending in foolish and excessive coverage ... that still is merely lipstick on a pig.

How do the 50-cent pick 5's perform versus the parlay? Obviously MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better ... and it's over one-less race.

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Very low standards.

And those are brutally difficult sequence of races they use.

The Pick 5's at Santa Anita, for instance, are the opening five races and offer a lot of smaller fields and sometimes non-competitive races.

Look at the last completed card at SA for instance, March 24th.

Race #1: 4 horse field, winner is 6/5
Race #2: 8 horse field, winner is 5/1
Race #3: 4 horse field, winner is 9/5
Race #4: 6 horse field, winner is 9/5
Race #5: 10 horse field, winner is 11/1

The pick 5 pays $6,331.80 for $2 ... or $1,582.95 for fifty cents.

Instead of five very shabby races... Gulfstream gives you mostly tough races with larger fields and invites people to stupidly spread.

Actually it isn't that low of a bar. I did the math here:
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...1&postcount=44

Comparison to parlay is simply a way to normalize the results and compare different horizontal wagers against the same bar. Obviously nobody actually does a 6 race parlay these days, no need to (although as recently as 2007 you actually could if you wanted to with a punch card at NYRA)

The average pick 3 only pays about 1.3X the parlay. In the data set I looked at, at Aqueduct (which obviously has robust pick 4 pools), the average pick 4 was 1.91X the parlay.

As for your question about SA Pick 5's, the one in you stated paid 2.2X the parlay ($716.86/.50)- a pretty normal amount for that wager. Over the past 15 racing days the average has been 2.3X the parlay, with a low of 1.06X (March 8th) and a high of 3.68X (March 22nd). Oddly enough, the second lowest payoff was actually the day they had the carryover- March 1st, where the payoff was only 1.4X the parlay.

My point is this- despite the seemingly criminal takeout for the average player, it actually stacks up favorably well to other horizontal wagers. Not to mention with the low entry point it gives said average player an actual chance of feeling the sweet success of a pick 6. So many people just automatically assume it's terrible by just looking at the takeout and bash away, which frustrates a math guy like me.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Not to mention with the low entry point it gives said average player an actual chance of feeling the sweet success of a pick 6. So many people just automatically assume it's terrible by just looking at the takeout and bash away, which frustrates a math guy like me.

Phil, I've seen that bet pay less than the parlay when a couple of improbable longshots win.

There was nothing even remotely special about that Santa Anita p5 I posted. The point was that it transformed a sequence of mostly terrible non-competitive betting races with small fields and hopeless toss-outs into an advantageous situation.

The Gulfstream p6 is generally made up of several attractive betting races with large fields, often wide-open races.

The more sensible thing to do is to target the race or two in the sequence where you most have an edge.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Phil, I've seen that bet pay less than the parlay when a couple of improbable longshots win.

There was nothing even remotely special about that Santa Anita p5 I posted. The point was that it transformed a sequence of mostly terrible non-competitive betting races with small fields and hopeless toss-outs into an advantageous situation.

The Gulfstream p6 is generally made up of several attractive betting races with large fields, often wide-open races.

The more sensible thing to do is to target the race or two in the sequence where you most have an edge.

Of course that happens, it happens in multi race wagers all the time. If pool size < parlay it is guaranteed to happen. Hell Even the lowest day relative to parlay at SA was "normal" results (2 2-1, 2 4-1, 1 11-1).

The p5 at SA is obviously a good wager with the low takeout, I'm not suggesting otherwise. But we completely disagree what constitutes worthwhile sequences for multi race wagers. I'm looking for difficult sequences where I can possibly hit a separator horse or two. Singling the same horse as everyone else in a mundane sequence doesn't help me.

If you play the pick 6... And have scrutinized every race, who's to say you can't play the races individually as well?

[tector]

And it survives another day.

So we only have to dodge 4 more days. Obviously a goodly amount of money should go in tomorrow, Florida Derby day. And with many tracks not running Easter Sunday, it should take a lot of money then, too.

A carryover into the final day (if it happens) should be over $2 million--unless people hold back the last couple of days to try to crush it closing day, which could increase the odds of a single ticket winner.

Some effed up psychology on this bet....

[tabs]

Originally Posted by philcski

As I stated last time around, I wholeheartedly disagree.

Here's the rationale: would you rather play at a poker table with no rake, but with 9 players of equal high ability? Or at a table with 25% taken out of every pot but 3-4 of the players overbetting losing hands every hand?

Once the carryover reaches the 7 figure mark, the bet has been paying well over the parlay. Yesterday, parlay+50% despite short fields and tough favorites. Today, 3X the parlay. Sunday, 2X the parlay.

I think I understand a little of both sides of the argument and like philcski believe most of the money wagered has almost no realistic chance of cashing.

Successfully parlaying 6 races is extremely rare with large fields and so many un-raced horses. Too many variables in the sequence for a player to be successful without spending much less then $300.00 in my opinion.

Can someone hit it for a dime –yes but you have better odds hitting the lottery.

Unless your handicapping shows that you are successful 90% of the time of including the winner using three horses or more in each race then you are playing a losing game imo.

Players that are investing $50 to $200.00 per ticket are fooling themselves and have almost no chance of hitting 6 of 6 let alone the big prize.

As long as the vast majorities play this wager for fun and small dollars I think it’s possible to make money on this wager.

The argument Doug puts forth is there are much better ways to win at the races.