Has any horse in history ever done less & was 12/1 to win the Derby two months out?

[Calzone Lord]

Here is the extent of Flashback's career so far:

Start #1: He ran in an extremely fast paced 7f maiden race at Hollywood Park. Everyone collapsed late and he drew off as the last one standing.

Start #2: He faces just 3 other challengers. He is allowed a loose lead through fractions of 24.17 and 48.69 going 8.5f -- On the same card, Tritap and Handsome Mike hook up through fractions of 22.52 and 46.23 going 9 furlongs on dirt.

We are two months away, and he closed at odds of 12/1 to win the Derby.

He simply won a maiden race and beat a field of 3 others with an uncontested lead through slow early fractions. Has he run impressive figures? no. Has he had trips? no.

[Calzone Lord]

Orb at 12/1 is terrible value.

Truth be told, I'd rather have a bet on Flashback of the two, because at least you have a little more of a wildcard factor with Flashback.

[pweizer]

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pweizer

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

[santana]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

Which of Bafferts horses should have been a lower price ?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by santana

Which of Bafferts horses should have been a lower price ?

Super Ninety Nine for sure.

[Calzone Lord]

Based on what can be measured after just 2 starts, I don't see anything to suggest Flashback is a better horse than fellow Baffert Governor Charlie.

A lot of stable hype has been there with Flashback since the start of his career.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Flashback even better than Goldencents? I'm sure he'll be favored Saturday but I am far from convinced.

The fact that Flashback went off the shortest price of any of the Baffert horses in the pool is comical.

Goldencents is certainly more established. I may be a little interested in Salutos Amigos.

Oh, and of the Bafferts, I would take Super 99 over Flashback at double the price all day long.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

It doesn't look like Flashback is facing any killers in the San Felipe this Saturday where he will be odds on. If he wins (and I will certainly look to bet against), he will have much lower derby odds soon.

Paul

There are a couple of interesting, if unproven, challengers in there.

We will know a lot more about Flashback after this race, and I expect that he will be overbet Saturday as well, though odds-on would be kind of ridiculous if the field stays intact.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are a couple of interesting, if unproven, challengers in there.

We will know a lot more about Flashback after this race, and I expect that he will be overbet Saturday as well, though odds-on would be kind of ridiculous if the field stays intact.

Who are you looking at in the field?

And given the hype and the Baffert factor, I would bet he goes off odds on.

Paul

[letswastemoney]

Tiz a Minister might be interesting considering he failed on synthetic and turf for most of his career, before winning a state-bred dirt stakes race over Omega Star. Maybe Tiz a Minister is a quality dirt horse.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Who are you looking at in the field?

And given the hype and the Baffert factor, I would bet he goes off odds on.

It's a race where you have a lot of directions to look and a ton of early speed. There will certainly be no free ride on the lead this time.

This race will also be a huge test for Goldencents...who won the Delta Jackpot in a race where It'smyluckyday was wide throughout and up the track. Obviously, It'smyluckyday has improved a ton at GP since.

Salutos Amigos and Hear the Ghost are probably going to be pace casualties, but they are very interesting prospects who might have a look coming out of this race.

Even Kochees, who will be a massive longshot, his one dirt race looks real good on our numbers and he will get a lot of pace help.

This is a true test for Flashback though. He's not going to get a candy front-end trip. There might not be a high quality closer in here, so he will have to adapt accordingly.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's a race where you have a lot of directions to look and a ton of early speed. There will certainly be no free ride on the lead this time.

This race will also be a huge test for Goldencents...who won the Delta Jackpot in a race where It'smyluckyday was wide throughout and up the track. Obviously, It'smyluckyday has improved a ton at GP since.

Salutos Amigos and Hear the Ghost are probably going to be pace casualties, but they are very interesting prospects who might have a look coming out of this race.

Even Kochees, who will be a massive longshot, his one dirt race looks real good on our numbers and he will get a lot of pace help.

This is a true test for Flashback though. He's not going to get a candy front-end trip. There might not be a high quality closer in here, so he will have to adapt accordingly.

What about Omega Star? He should like the extra distance and will benefit from pace dynamics.

Paul

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's a race where you have a lot of directions to look and a ton of early speed. There will certainly be no free ride on the lead this time.

This race will also be a huge test for Goldencents...who won the Delta Jackpot in a race where It'smyluckyday was wide throughout and up the track. Obviously, It'smyluckyday has improved a ton at GP since.

Salutos Amigos and Hear the Ghost are probably going to be pace casualties, but they are very interesting prospects who might have a look coming out of this race.

Even Kochees, who will be a massive longshot, his one dirt race looks real good on our numbers and he will get a lot of pace help.

This is a true test for Flashback though. He's not going to get a candy front-end trip. There might not be a high quality closer in here, so he will have to adapt accordingly.

Kochees adds blinkers 1st time and I think that moves him forward, energy looks good. Morning line for him is 15-1 so the price should be right.

[NavalOrange]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb at 12/1 is terrible value.

Truth be told, I'd rather have a bet on Flashback of the two, because at least you have a little more of a wildcard factor with Flashback.

I have Orb at 80-1. Hope he keeps improving.

[herkhorse]

I'm not sure that it matters much, but Orb looked totally spent after the FOY. At one point it looked like he was going to fall down on the way to the winners circle.

[NavalOrange]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'm not sure that it matters much, but Orb looked totally spent after the FOY. At one point it looked like he was going to fall down on the way to the winners circle.

He was totally spent from spending the week in Vegas with you and Rella. At least he rested up when cuddling with Rella.

[herkhorse]

Hey, what happens in Vegas....

and Orb probably doesn't weigh as much as she did.

good luck with your future bet

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'm not sure that it matters much, but Orb looked totally spent after the FOY. At one point it looked like he was going to fall down on the way to the winners circle.

Nice call, the day after the race Shug was on with Steve and said Orb will run forever. Trainers are wrong all the time but Shug bearly tells you he like a horse after a G3 win, if he says the horse can run all day he means it. Orb may not be good enough to win G1 races but distance isnt going to be the issue..

[Calzone Lord]

Orb fits the profile of the type of horse who finishes 3rd or 4th in the Derby.

He has never demonstrated any early speed.