dear bernardini fans....

[todko]

In the 30 or so years of being involved with thoroughbred racing I can't honestly recall a horse more over-hyped than Bernardini. That wasn't even a strong BC Classic field. He beat nobody in his previous starts (if you throw out the injured Barbaro, Sunriver, and Bluegrass Cat). His times were unremarkable (and so was Invasor's).

He had the Beyer hype machine behind him full bore. JC didn't move too early. He moved in the same place where Prado moved on Barbaro. Bernardini just couldn't hack it. And he had to get after Bernardini in the backstretch because Bernardini wasn't getting :48s and nearly 1:13s like he had in some of his other races. Bernardini was a fraud pure and simple.

The Travers is a weak race and has been for some time. So is the JCGC. So is the Jim Dandy. Grades don't mean a damn thing. I can name dozens of Grade I winners who could barely get 1:36 for a mile.

Jazil could beat him. And so could a healthy Bluegrass Cat. Invasor had a tough trip and ran by him under wraps. Invasor couldn't even get 2:01 flat. And that track was far from slow that day. Beyer had to hype some more figures to justify Bernardini's earlier hype figures.

Ghostzapper would have been so far gone it wouldn't have even been funny. So would St. Liam. Barbaro too.

If you buy Beyer speed figs and commentary by people like Jon White then you deserved to lose your money on BC day.

Originally Posted by todko

In the 30 or so years of being involved with thoroughbred racing I can't honestly recall a horse more over-hyped than Bernardini. That wasn't even a strong BC Classic field. He beat nobody in his previous starts (if you throw out the injured Barbaro, Sunriver, and Bluegrass Cat). His times were unremarkable (and so was Invasor's).

He had the Beyer hype machine behind him full bore. JC didn't move too early. He moved in the same place where Prado moved on Barbaro. Bernardini just couldn't hack it. And he had to get after Bernardini in the backstretch because Bernardini wasn't getting :48s and nearly 1:13s like he had in some of his other races. Bernardini was a fraud pure and simple.

The Travers is a weak race and has been for some time. So is the JCGC. So is the Jim Dandy. Grades don't mean a damn thing. I can name dozens of Grade I winners who could barely get 1:36 for a mile.

Jazil could beat him. And so could a healthy Bluegrass Cat. Invasor had a tough trip and ran by him under wraps. Invasor couldn't even get 2:01 flat. And that track was far from slow that day. Beyer had to hype some more figures to justify Bernardini's earlier hype figures.

Ghostzapper would have been so far gone it wouldn't have even been funny. So would St. Liam. Barbaro too.

If you buy Beyer speed figs and commentary by people like Jon White then you deserved to lose your money on BC day.

Okay, while all else are holding their breath, I'll be the first to say it.....

THIS ANALYSIS IS HORENDOUS!...Sorry man...I had to call you out for this post....Not to insult, but I had to pick myself off the ground after laughing to post this....

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Okay, while all else are holding their breath, I'll be the first to say it.....

THIS ANALYSIS IS HORENDOUS!...Sorry man...I had to call you out for this post....Not to insult, but I had to pick myself off the ground after laughing to post this....

As did I... FUNNIEST POST ALL DAY LONG!!!

[blackthroatedwind]

It's typical internet nonsense. You always see way too much on both ends of the extreme. He's great....no. He sucks....no.

Now don't be knocking my pal Dixie anymore. He's the glue holding this place together.

Luckily for all of us we have Latent Heat to look forward to in 2007.

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by todko

Jazil could beat him.

my god man! a statement like this has put me in the very uncomfortable situation of......(i can't believe i am doing this)........defending bernardini. as people on this board know I really don't like bernardini. i started this thread, and bcc 2006 is now my favorite race ever because the sight of invasor blowing by him as he labored home was delightful. the hype for this horse was out of control.
but that being said......JAZIL!!!!!! ummmmm no.
i guess maybe i should give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were being sarcastic or something. i love bernbashing more than anyone.....but that is just crazy.

[todko]

Originally Posted by Cardus

And the track did slow down considerably after the sprint. -- DAHoss9698

How do people know that the track slows or quickens during a day, minus a recognizable, tangible weather change, like rain or wind increase/decrease? This is what gets me about "split variants."

Why was the track at Churchill Downs slower after the Sprint? What atmospheric condition changed the composition of the dirt? What man-made change was observed that changed the distribution of the track surface?

There were two races run on dirt after the Sprint, neither of which resulted in a superficially fast time. Is it possible -- and given that most people considered Round Pond a fluky winner it is not unreasonable to suspect -- that the performances were sub-par?

While we can debate a lot of what Todko wrote -- or ridicule, based upon follow-up posts --I think that variant/speed figure portions of his post invite debate.

Thanks Cardus. It seems that the people who lost money on Bernardini have nothing left but resorting to insults. I called it beforehand. They bought the hype while I bought the winning ticket.

That nearly instantaneous slowdown in a track's surface is merely an excuse used often by poor handicappers. If the track moved in any way it should have been faster later in the day. Churchill did have rain that week.

You can't base a dependent variable (speed figure) on an iffy independent variable (track variant). To put it simply, horses are not quantifiable. If they were, we'd know in advance which horse was going to win. Not even the best supercomputer crunching the best numbers (throw Trakus in there too) will ever be able to predict which horse will win with much more than 30% accuracy.

If you bet the speed figures you are a fool. Bernardini is proof positive.

[todko]

Jazil versus Bernardini. That's one event that really would cause me to consider a home equity loan. Yeah, I'd throw the house in on Jazil. Particularly if it was 10f or above. Here's another one. Birdstone versus Bernardini. I'd throw my mom's house in on that one too. On Birdstone.

And I'd be laughing all the way to the bank . . . kinda like I did on November 4th.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by todko

Jazil versus Bernardini. That's one event that really would cause me to consider a home equity loan. Yeah, I'd throw the house in on Jazil. Particularly if it was 10f or above. Here's another one. Birdstone versus Bernardini. I'd throw my mom's house in on that one too. On Birdstone.

And I'd be laughing all the way to the bank . . . kinda like I did on November 4th.

I'm sure you were laughing all the way to the bank... you act like the horse is some kind of rat. He finished 2nd to a very nice horse. Your post last night had me laughing my ass off... thanks. Jazil and Birdstone? Give me a break!

[todko]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I'm sure you were laughing all the way to the bank... you act like the horse is some kind of rat. He finished 2nd to a very nice horse. Your post last night had me laughing my ass off... thanks. Jazil and Birdstone? Give me a break!

Hey, Birdstone got 2:27 in the Belmont while chasing fast mid-race fractions. Jazil ran the Churchill 10f at close to Bernardini's time in the Classic while coming through traffic from dead last in the Derby. And also 6 months earlier.

I'm very serious. I'd take either of them versus the "wonderhorse" Bernardini.

Invasor is decent. After all, he did break 2:02 for 10f. Stunning. Triple Crown winner too. Uruguay.

[ateamstupid]

You can actually smell and taste this dude's hatred. It's unbelievable.

[todko]

I don't hate any horse -- and I donate money to thoroughbred charities routinely. Not as much money as I'd like but maybe life will get better and I can do more in the future. And if Bernardini doesn't work out as a stallion and some of my donations go to save his life I'll be a very happy man. Seriously. I'd cry if he went to the slaughterhouse. It would depress me to the end.

The Preakness wasn't really an issue with me. I think it was more the racing press and how they tried to pivot off the public's interest in Barbaro and place that interest in Bernardini. It didn't work and it was a crappy sleazy move to begin with.

And really the hype was to the detriment of Bernardini. The racing press asked Bernardini to be Ghostzapper and Bernardini wasn't. It's a shame.

People on this forum were asking him to run a record at Churchill -- asking him to run 1:58. That was asking too much of Bernardini. And too much of any other horse.

The hype didn't help -- it didn't help Bernardini, it didn't help the handicappers who fell for it, it didn't help the novice bettors who fell for it, it didn't help racing, and most of all it didn't help the horse racing press. The horse racing press is still the same old fraud. Read at your own peril. And bettor beware.

Bernie was being compared routinely to an IMMORTAL, Seattle Slew, Bernie's grandfather. Even his sire A.P. Indy was not spoken of that way; yet he was a HOY and an instant Hall of Fame inductee. Bernie always had too much to live up to; it was riciculous and it started with the media, not the fans. I believe that Bernardini would have proven his greatness at four-years-old; he loses his chance because of short-sighted thinking. It hurts the sport because it alienates fans who truly love individual horses, fans like me. In Bernie I saw Slew traits, but I am not naive enough to think I saw Slew. That kind of greatness is rare indeed.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

IMO, Bernardini was as talented as the Slew, and I always compared the two because they reminded me of each other.

I mean, the horse runs second in the biggest race of his life on his B game. The horse totally got knocked out of his A game when he got sandwiched going into the first turn. Every time a horse gets hit like that, it takes them out of their game. Most don't even recover enough to get back into the race, but Bernardini did. In all of Bernardini's other races, he pulled Javier up to the lead. Well, I knew he was in trouble out of the first turn because he wasn't on the bridle and pulling at Javier. When Javier started asking him at the half mile, I said "Uh-oh". So, a three year old gets beat by a four year old. The distance...a length. Even Affirmed, Secretariat, and Spectacular Bid (three greats) lost to older.

The only horse that has come along in this millenium that had more talent than this horse was the great Ghostzapper (and Dubai Millenium...RIP) (I would put possibly put Point Given, Tiznow, and Barbaro near Bernardini) and even he didn't have Bernardini's conformation and movement which is going to play a major role in the quality of his offspring. I think that Bernardini goes on to be one of the greatest sires that ever lived. If you had a quality mare, his stud fee of a hundred thousand is a steal right now.

This horse was a monster. Even if you all don't think that he is, Bernardini knew that he was great. He carried himself so much higher and prouder than any other horse on the track. He knew that he was special, and he had that air about him that all the great racehorses do. He was spectacular to look at.

Also, if he would have remained on this track in his four year old year, there is no doubt in my mind he would have earned being called great.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

IMO, Bernardini was as talented as the Slew, and I always compared the two because they reminded me of each other.

I mean, the horse runs second in the biggest race of his life on his B game. The horse totally got knocked out of his A game when he got sandwiched going into the first turn. Every time a horse gets hit like that, it takes them out of their game. Most don't even recover enough to get back into the race, but Bernardini did. In all of Bernardini's other races, he pulled Javier up to the lead. Well, I knew he was in trouble out of the first turn because he wasn't on the bridle and pulling at Javier. When Javier started asking him at the half mile, I said "Uh-oh". So, a three year old gets beat by a four year old. The distance...a length. Even Affirmed, Secretariat, and Spectacular Bid (three greats) lost to older.

The only horse that has come along in this millenium that had more talent than this horse was the great Ghostzapper, and even he didn't have Bernardini's conformation and movement which is going to play a major role in the quality of his offspring. I think that Bernardini goes on to be one of the greatest sires that ever lived. If you had a quality mare, his stud fee of a hundred thousand is a steal right now.

This horse was a monster. Even if you all don't think that he is, Bernardini knew that he was great. He carried himself so much higher and prouder than any other horse on the track. He knew that he was special, and he had that air about him that all the great racehorses do. He was spectacular to look at.

Also, if he would have remained on this track in his four year old year, there is no doubt in my mind he would have earned being called great.

Personally I think it's an injustice to the Slew to compare Bernardini to him.
Frankly I don't see the similarity.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Personally I think it's an injustice to the Slew to compare Bernardini to him.
Frankly I don't see the similarity.

Well then that's your opinion, but I have always said that he reminded me of the Slew and he most certainly does. I believe that he was as talented as him, but of course, you couldn't actually put him in the same realm because Bernardini didn't race as a four year old and Slew accomplished much more on the track. Bernardini is going to become an outstanding sire though. As a stallion, he has it all.

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Personally I think it's an injustice to the Slew to compare Bernardini to him.
Frankly I don't see the similarity.

of course it is an injustice!!
comparing an all-time great like slew to bernardini is absolutely laughable. i couldn't believe people were making those kind of comparisons before the bcc, and i certainly cannot believe that they are still doing it now. apparently it doesn't matter what we think though jim because "Bernardini knew that he was great." why analyze horses at all? just let the horses tell you who was great!! hell even if had finished last in the bcc.....he is still great because he thought he was!!! what wonderful logic!
oh by the way.....
the best horse seattle slew ever beat was.......Affirmed
the best horse bernardini ever beat was...........nobody worth remembering.