Latent Heat

[blackthroatedwind]

I wouldn't say it precludes it but going turf to dirt, and cutting back, at that level is probably unlikely. Not saying it won't happen, or wouldn't work, but they are two such distinct directions.

One of the reasons trainers often go to the turf as a last resort, especially with good horses, is many don't like to switch back and forth between surfaces. Or...so I hear.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wouldn't say it precludes it but going turf to dirt, and cutting back, at that level is probably unlikely. Not saying it won't happen, or wouldn't work, but they are two such distinct directions.

One of the reasons trainers often go to the turf as a last resort, especially with good horses, is many don't like to switch back and forth between surfaces. Or...so I hear.

I'll agree that it is a bad move if they wind up skipping the Malibu or he runs extremely poorly there. I can't blame them though for seeing a big race on the calendar, a horse with a hole in his calendar, and actually deciding to run that horse in the big race. It is an actual sporting act in a sport where such acts are few and far between.

[blackthroatedwind]

I have no problem with an aggressive campaign, obviously, but this horse seems perfectly suited for the Strub series and I think it would be a mistake to deviate from that course. It just feels like they should be thinking grass after those races don't work out for him.

The whole thing makes me feel like they have no real game plan with the horse which would be a shame. I think he's pretty good. Not as good as many thought going into the TC perhaps but better than he showed in the Derby and Preakness.

At this point, if the Malibu was his next start, I would consider him the horse to beat. Latent Heat is a nice horse, but he has something to prove before one would put him ahead of Too Much Bling and/or Brother Derek. He might well prove better but so far he's a lot of hype with a little bit of delivery.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I have no problem with an aggressive campaign, obviously, but this horse seems perfectly suited for the Strub series and I think it would be a mistake to deviate from that course. It just feels like they should be thinking grass after those races don't work out for him.

The whole thing makes me feel like they have no real game plan with the horse which would be a shame. I think he's pretty good. Not as good as many thought going into the TC perhaps but better than he showed in the Derby and Preakness.

At this point, if the Malibu was his next start, I would consider him the horse to beat. Latent Heat is a nice horse, but he has something to prove before one would put him ahead of Too Much Bling and/or Brother Derek. He might well prove better but so far he's a lot of hype with a little bit of delivery.

I can't believe I am already at the point where I'm longing for the old days of like two years ago when coming into a race off an 8 week layoff was a concern rather than an advantage.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I can't believe I am already at the point where I'm longing for the old days of like two years ago when coming into a race off an 8 week layoff was a concern rather than an advantage.

It's a long year and the bigger races are mostly later in the year. No reason to be overly aggressive early in the season.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a long year and the bigger races are mostly later in the year. No reason to be overly aggressive early in the season.

The Santa Anita schedule is setup though so that this is a big time of the year. I'd think Hollywood Derby, Malibu, Strub or Sunshine Millions, Big Cap would be a reasonable campaign and at that point you could give him a freshening for a couple months to get him ready for the bigger races later in the year. Wasn't part of the reason they skipped the big 3yo races with him over the summer so that he'd be fresh after the Classic for the Strub series?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The Santa Anita schedule is setup though so that this is a big time of the year. I'd think Hollywood Derby, Malibu, Strub or Sunshine Millions, Big Cap would be a reasonable campaign and at that point you could give him a freshening for a couple months to get him ready for the bigger races later in the year. Wasn't part of the reason they skipped the big 3yo races with him over the summer so that he'd be fresh after the Classic for the Strub series?

I thought he had some issues but not sure.

Brother Derek feels like a good Met Mile horse if things go well. That's certainly a very big race to win.

[King Glorious]

I'm of the belief that Brother Derek would get crushed in the Malibu. He's got front running speed but it's route speed. I don't think he'd stand up to sprinters going 7f. I think the Hollywood Derby is a good option. It's worth a lot of money and the distance will be perfect for him. He'll be the one to catch and I could see him pulling Lava Man or Hawkster type of race out there. If he loses, he could always come back in the San Fernando. I'd be looking at San Fernando, Sunshine Millions, Big Cap.