Shanghai Bobby can he win at 1 1/4???

[Calzone Lord]

I don't like Shanghain Bobby's Derby chances at all. He was falling apart late in the BC Juvenile...there was just no Action This Day or Anees type in the race to blow past him late.

A lot of Pletcher 2yo's will improve noticeably when Gulfstream opens up and gets going. With less pace pressure and lasix he should be fine at 8f and maybe fine up to 9f ... but the Derby is a different animal for a horse with his running style...unless of course he shows the unlikely dimension and becomes a converted mid-pack horse.

I think people forget what a great race Bodemeister ran in the Kentucky Derby. He outran a Breeders Cup Sprint winner-- set an absolutely insane killer pace -- blew the race apart on the far turn and had five on the Derby field in the stretch -- and just came up short late.

I'm sure Baffert probably wishes he didn't run him back in the Preakness off of such a gut-wrenching performance.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't like Shanghain Bobby's Derby chances at all. He was falling apart late in the BC Juvenile...there was just no Action This Day or Anees type in the race to blow past him late.

A lot of Pletcher 2yo's will improve noticeably when Gulfstream opens up and gets going. With less pace pressure and lasix he should be fine at 8f and maybe fine up to 9f ... but the Derby is a different animal for a horse with his running style...unless of course he shows the unlikely dimension and becomes a converted mid-pack horse.

I think people forget what a great race Bodemeister ran in the Kentucky Derby. He outran a Breeders Cup Sprint winner-- set an absolutely insane killer pace -- blew the race apart on the far turn and had five on the Derby field in the stretch -- and just came up short late.

I'm sure Baffert probably wishes he didn't run him back in the Preakness off of such a gut-wrenching performance.

How many lengths better was Uncle Mo's juvy win

[hondo]

In looking at his breeding I agree he does appear to have distance limitations and he appears to be best bred for middle distances. I may be wrong but his very upper limit appears to be a 1 1/8 and he would not be my Derby choice. I too did not pay him the attention he deserved in the BC, but you have to give him credit he appears he wins wins even though he has been "knocked" in many of his races.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by freddymo

How many lengths better was Uncle Mo's juvy win

Shanghai Bobby did win the race the hard way and it was a very strong pace and he had no lasix -- but Uncle Mo's BC Juvy was obviously a ton better.

Using another Pletcher horse who started in the BC Juvie -- I'd compare the performance with Chapel Royal's 3rd place finish at Santa Anita in the Juvie the year Action This Day won a collapse-fest in a race where the 1st, 2nd, and 4th place finishers raced 12th, 10th, and 11th early on in a field of 12.

Pletcher's Chapel Royal was the only pace survivor.