Win streak attempt

[pweizer]

But that's the thing. A million things can happen in a race. Bad breaks, equipment issues, deal rails, etc. that are impossible to predict. Bad rides are also far too commonplace to take 1/5 on anything. I give you a lot of credit for trying this. If you couldn't pull it off, it really shows just how hard this is.

On the other hand, isolating horses with no chance is certainly easier as all the breaks in the world will not make a hopelessly slow horse fast.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

I think it certainly can be done -- it's just VERY hard to do on one attempt.

You really need 10 healthy horses (I got them in every race this challenge. They all fired. It may not look it, but Gantry ran to his par today)

If I had to do it over -- I'd put more emphasis on taking horses with superior late pace.

The only two horses that didn't win with ease -- were both ridden very passively, trapped inside until the stretch, and didn't have the best late pace rating in the field going into their races.

[cmorioles]

This one scared me when I saw the other horse was still in. You could have found an easier one if you thought the other wouldn't scratch, but you know that I'm sure.

[Indian Charlie]

The thing with jockeys is that they are far more likely to help your horse lose than they are to help your horse win.

[Calzone Lord]

I should have stuck with just picking Presque Isle Downs today.

My Best Bet in the paper won and paid $6.80 and my "Best Value of the day" won the last race as the top pick and paid $14.60 to win.



Also had a cold exacta that paid $104.20 in the last race -- and the 2nd place finisher was 9.5 lengths clear of the third horse.


http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120908&RN=8


Good day of betting locally. The Master has produced the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare sprint winner the last 3 years -- and Groupie Doll will probably make it the 4th year in a row.

[Calzone Lord]

One final thing about this thread -- I think it is a great illustration of the value of a rebate.

Obviously, you'd have done WAY better in a betting exchange than with a rebate because people like to oppose short priced favorites at small tracks. As Brock noted -- he was able to get 7-to-10 odds at Betfair on a winner that paid $2.20 and one of the winners who paid $2.60 at Emerald Downs traded at better than even money for a little while.

Even though a betting exchange is obviously preferred -- here is a comparison of how you'd do with a 7% rebate like the one Pinnacle was always known for VS betting at the windows.

Had you bet $100 on each horse to win:

With rebate: You'd be ahead $151
Without rebate: You'd be ahead just $95


If you attempted to do a $100 win parlay:

With rebate:

$147 - $164.64 - $208.92 - $285.88 - $476.83 - $652.95 - $763.79 - Ended up with $54.20 after a horse finally was defeated.

Without rebate:

$140 - $147 - $176.40 - $229.20 - $366.60 - $476.40 - $524 - $0


As you can see -- with the rebate, you'd have run the $100 up to $763.79 before finally losing -- and even though you lost -- the rebate from the losing bet, plus the leftover change, would you leave you with $54.20 ... that means the $100 parlay would have been just a $45.80 loser when a horse finally lost.

Without the rebate -- you'd have only run your initial $100 up to $524 -- and you would be left with zero once a horse lost.

In conclusion -- a betting exchange is great for backing standout horses. It is okay to back these type of horses if you get a rebate.

If you can't do a betting exchange, or you're not getting a rebate, you're getting raped with these type of horses. Even if you show a profit with them -- you're getting gouged badly.