Saratoga Trip Notes (8/22-9/3)

[ateamstupid]

Sunday, August 26

8-26-01
Cindy's Joy off several lengths slow, then bumped by Kittylicious, leaving those two at the back. Speedy's Gal relaxed in midpack down the backstretch, was aggressively sent through on the inside nearing the far turn, came 2-wide on the far turn, reeled in the spent frontrunner in midstretch and drew off to score unchallenged. Great ride, saving ground and getting first run on the closers. Didn't see any meaningful trips behind the winner.

8-26-02
Apologize hopped at the start, losing about 2 lengths. Sign was off second-last, had enough speed to put herself in a good spot 3rd at the rail, was kept unhurried on the turn while the top three locked horns, asked and shifted off the rail into the stretch, quickly caught up to the leading trio while drifting in at the 3/16 pole, surged to the front nearing the 1/8 and absolutely exploded away from there to win as tons the best. Very impressive debut and the needs to be watched going forward.

8-26-03
Break OK. Favored Thescreenisred was even with the leader in the first furlong, dropped back to the 2nd flight, was in tight while saving ground in the pocket into and around the turn, got clear top lane, caught up to the leader past the 1/8 pole, gradually pulled away from that one and maintained a safe margin over a good firster to the line to win as best. Talmadge Hill was away in midpack, saved ground on the turn, continued on the hedge through the stretch and closed nicely inside of the tiring pacesetter to get the place. Good debut with a good trip. White Sangria fended off the challenge of a longshot pace player through a sharp 1st 1/4, spurted clear past the 3/16, battled the winner gamely when she approached at the 1/8, began to get leg-weary at the 1/16 and was passed by the quality top pair. Decent turf debut. Desert Bliss dropped to the rear as usual, was 2-wide on the turn, swung widest turning for home and closed into a :17.30 final 3/16 to get fourth. Always was up against it in these speed-dominated Saratoga turf sprints. Anticipate her finally getting through this condition back at Belmont.

8-26-04
Break OK. Fiddlers Afleet was widest in the 2nd flight behind a leader setting a slow 1st 1/4, sidled up to the pacesetter approaching the turn for home as the pace quickened, poked a nose in front inside the 1/8 pole, gradually battled that one into defeat and held to win narrowly over a closing Sailmate. Not flashy, but had to wear down a leader with a lot of horse and then hold off closing bids to get home. Good to see him bounce back from his poor Morrissey run. Sailmate was in fifth behind a slow pace, made a 4-5 wide bid on the far turn, emerged as a threat past the 1/8 pole, couldn't quite get up but nailed the pacesetter for the place. Sneaky good race from off dawdling fractions with a lot of ground loss. Obviously better at these long sprints/one-turn miles than two-turn routes. Mine Over Matter can't buy a stalking midpack trip. He was gunned to the lead through suicidal fractions in the Chasin Wimmin and came back to trail behind an average pace in the Morrissey. Well, yet again, he fell back to last, was 2-wide on the turn and had to come over the top to get a closing 4th in here behind the crawl up front. Keeps running his race without getting any kind of setup. Be Bullish didn't appreciate being rated, fought his rider down the backstretch and came up empty in the stretch. Would've been better off on the lead.

8-26-05
Break OK. Mr Cowboy saved ground on hold in midpack off a hot pace, kept the hedge while sneaking up to the 2nd flight on the far turn, came a path off the inside to collar the sputtering leader turning for home, scooted away in midstretch and was never seriously threatened, winning in good time for the level with a dream trip. Hope Still Springs was shuffled back early, saved ground well off the legitimate pace, followed the winner's bid inside on the far turn, was cut loose past the 3/16 and whittled away at the winner's margin slowly, fell short but was well clear of 3rd. Big step forward for this guy with a good trip. Pace collapsed in here.

8-26-06
Break OK. A scorching pace duel developed between Red Hook and With Honorandgrace, while Daisysgonnamakeit was for some reason sent 3-wide after those two going into the turn instead of sitting chilly and waiting for them to retreat. Fractions fried all three runners, setting the table for Heidi's Holiday, who was outsprinted early, began to advance 2-wide on the turn, emerged as a danger near the 3/16, inhaled the tired pace players past the 1/8 and ran away to win by open lengths with a great setup.

8-26-07
Troubleinrivercity broke several lengths slow. A speed duel materialized between Paci Di Notte and War Hitch. Mr E Philip sat in a great spot 2-wide in the 2nd flight behind the sparring leaders, made it into a four-way share of the lead at the 1/8 pole, kicked on strongest to score going away with a good trip. War Hitch dueled Paci Di Notte into defeat, took on a 3-pronged challenged at the 1/8, just succumbed to the winner but held the place in a strong effort. Did all the heavy lifting and backed up his big fig maiden win. Alternative was outsprinted early, saved ground on the far turn, eased back into the race, produced a good rally in the stretch, drifted out from in behind the winner, carrying the fourth horse with him to get the show. Useful turf debut, will benefit from the longer turf sprints at Belmont. Tiny Predicament was away near the back, guided to the inside on the turn, advanced into contention turning for home, had to alter course several times in midstretch, allowing the winner to go by, started to close once clear and was carried out by the show horse in deep stretch, likely costing him 3rd. This is his 2nd consecutive hidden good turf race. Sitting on a win.

8-26-08
Break OK. Screenplay made a clear lead going into the 1st turn, was rated from there, allowed Ronin Dax to take a narrow edge at the 9/16, engaged that one going into the far turn, poked a head in front turning for home and disposed of the other pace player at the 1/8 pole, opened up past the 1/16 and stayed clear to the wire with a good trip and ride as best. Recharged, sent off at a ridiculous 32-1, was wrangled back into midpack to get the hedge 1st turn, was unhurried on the inside far turn, came off the hedge past the 1/8 pole, rallied to get the place in the last few strides. Ground-saving ride and a good effort. Gelding is plenty capable going two turns. Sr Henry bumped with Pleasant Run at the start, was rank on the 1st turn, eventually settled in a comfortable 3rd behind the two pace players down the backside, let the winner get away a bit while saving ground nearing the turn for home, was set down at the 3/16, tried to reel in the winner but couldn't make a dent in that one's lead, was caught late for the place.

8-26-09
Clean break. Bombaguia stalked an easy tempo in 2nd, glued to the leader's neck in no hurry to go by, stayed in that spot as the pace started to quicken significantly on the far turn, drew on even terms into the lane, edged away from the leader nearing the 1/8 pole, kicked clear and held off a late bid from the tripped-out, overbet favorite. Grey gelding has turned into a quality 9-10 furlong turf horse for Kimmel. Barocci had a great trip, saving ground in the 2nd flight behind the two leaders, came out in the stretch with a clear shot at the winner but was never a serious threat. No excuse. Share Out and Westside Corral each saved ground near the back of the field and produced good late bids to get 3rd and 4th, respectively, in a race that otherwise held together. Good move forward for both.

8-26-10
It's Tricky went to her face at the start, somehow didn't lose the rider, lost 5+ lengths. Love and Pride tracked Brushed by a Star in a close 2nd through reasonable but progressively faster fractions, moved into the lead midway on the far turn, dueled with It's Tricky into midstretch, opened a clear lead at the 1/8 pole and had just enough to hold off the favorite. Good effort and trip with the blinkers off. Royal Delta got into a good position 2-wide in the 2nd flight, stayed in that spot until being asked 3-wide to go after the top pair into the far turn, was drifted wider turning for home, struggled to make an impact in the stretch, kept trying though and managed to whittle away at the winner's lead late, didn't have enough to get up. Disappointing effort from the presumptive queen of the Distaff division. It's Tricky ran a huge race, tugging her way up into a joint 3rd with Royal Delta after the disastrous start, was rated back to 4th down the backstretch, had a hole open on the rail far turn, briefly challenged the winner in the stretch before understandably fading, still was only beaten 1.5 lengths on the line. Clearly should've won this.

8-26-11
Saguaro Blossom was pinched back and checked coming out of the gate, affecting Patti's Zip as well. Owen Rico shook off the bid of a one-way speed to make a clear lead from the outside, scooted away turning for home and dominated this mediocre group in a big first-turf effort. Watch going forward. Shy Humor was very rank while drifting out in behind horses on the backstretch, came through an opening inside into the stretch and won a 3-way photo for the place. OK recovery to get a piece. No excuse for favored Verde Mont who was in a good position in the 2nd flight, asked to go after the winner turning for home and mustered no response, was beaten late for the minors. Saguaro Blossom might be worth a shot next out, as he made a decent 2-3 wide bid through traffic into the stretch after that poor beginning, flattened out from there. Has some turf breeding, would want a rider change though.

[Calzone Lord]

I've seen the way several different handicappers watch and analyze races and do trip notes -- and a lot of people have very different approaches.

The right approach is the one you find out works best for you through trial and error. Doing this kind of work like Ateam is doing will give you an edge...and especially a lot more so over time.

This is good effort Ateam. I haven't studied a lot of those races and appreciate your write-ups.

Ultimately for me, the best way that I found that I could maximize an edge doing trip notes was not to do a circuit like you are. Even though you are detailed and do a good job, you are going to watch quite a few races where, for the most part, nothing really important to note happens.

Over the years, I went from initially trying to make something out of nothing with those type of races -- to eventually just writing stuff like "Fairly enough run race" for my entire analysis of it. It looked like it screamed of laziness -- but I learned over time that some races simply aren't even worth the effort.

They are typically fairly paced races, where all paths and running styles have a chance, and no major trips happen...and when they do, chart callers do a decent job noting it.

My entire M.O. for my trip notes eventually changed to where I developed a profiling system for finding the kind of races that are likely going to create big edge situations. And filtering out the kind of races that appear to be unlikely to create much advantage going forward.

Before I ever watch the race, I especially want to analyze trips on days where I believe racing surfaces are biased. I want to analyze races where I know extreme pace scenarios happen. I want to analyze races that I believe are unusually strong (or weak for finding bet-against if you do exchange betting) I don't care where these races take place. They can take place at Canterbury Park for all I care.

The real trick to this approach of mine is figuring out where the bias days are, where the crazy paces are, where the strong and weak races for the level are.

The type of horse who raced against both a track bias, and unfavorable pace dynamics, in an unusually strong race for the level -- is going to do a hell of a lot more for you than one who legitimately had a few lengths worth of trouble in a fairly paced race over a fair racetrack...especially if the chart caller caught the trouble.

The type of horse who was aided by a track bias, as well as highly favorable pace dynamics, in a below par for the level type of race is going to be a much better bet against than a horse who got a nice ride and had a perfect trip in an avg paced and quality race over a fair track.

The big drawback to my newer approach VS your current approach (which is very close to my old approach) is that what you are doing now will help you a lot more with multi-race wagers like the Pick 3 and Pick 4. Those are the best value wagers on the standard betting menu in America right now -- and a lot of times I'm stuck not playing them.

Anyway. Good work. I appreciate the effort and look forward to reading more. If you start to feel burn-out from this at some point -- don't give up on it, just put less emphasis and fewer words into the races that don't merit as much effort on your part.

If you watch a race just once -- and write "fairly enough run race" and quickly move on -- that is nothing to feel bad about.

[ateamstupid]

Good insight, Doug. I agree that there are a lot of races where not much is to be said, and I do use a succinct 'no major trips' comment occasionally, but I still usually include a few sentences if I think something can be gleaned from a fairly-run race (i.e. favorite loses with no excuse, horse looks like it needs more/less distance, first-time starter runs better than anticipated, etc.)

I prefer to focus on one track at a time, not just in doing trip notes, but my wagering as well. Obviously this is limiting in the ways you pointed out, but I generally do better when I can handicap a particular meet card-by-card. It helps to figure out owner/trainer/jockey tendencies, and more importantly, it allows me to gauge whether a race came up strong/weak for its level and how to view the horses coming out of that race going forward.

I've been busy with work the past week, so that's why I haven't been posting as much, but now that the US Open is coming to a close, I'll be putting up some cards this week.

[Gate Dancer]

Like what you've done so far and will be following along as the Fall progresses. Will be adding a few more horses to my Stable Mail based on some of the comments. Thanks much!!

[ateamstupid]

Monday, August 27

8-27-01
Spinit to Winit stumbled badly at the start. True Fortune was engaged in a pace duel with Carla Sweetrevenge from the bell, began to get away from that one at the 3/16, dug in to meet and repel the challenge of Polan while drifting out in deep stretch. OK effort. Polan sat just off the dueling pair in 3rd, went 3-4 wide around the turn, launched a bid into contention in midstretch but flattened out and couldn't get to the winner while being affected slightly by that one drifting out. Ran better than the winner considering ground loss. Bit Bustin was devoid of early speed, began to drop back even further when resenting the dirt in her face going into the turn, saved ground before coming widest top lane, made up a ton of ground from there to get a fast-closing 3rd. Looks to have the most upside from this group. Watch going longer and/or on turf.

8-27-02
No major trips. Federation was much the best with a good trip. Prize Catch was the only horse to make up ground in the stretch. No excuse for Counterparty.

8-27-03
Golden Fire was bumped coming out of the gate. Effie Trinket stalked a slow pace 2-wide, made the lead in midstretch and narrowly held off two good closing bids to score not particularly impressively with the best of it. Agilion was unhurried early, putting her up against it coming from off a slow pace, was produced 3-wide on the turn and came with a good rally to just miss the win. Not bad considering the quick late pace she had to close into. Zekes Surprise was in the 2nd flight going into the turn, was pushed along 2-wide at the 5/16 pole, kicked on with the place horse and finished a close 3rd while in a bit tight late. Top three clearly best in this phony stake.

8-27-04
Henny's Hurricane off about 2 lengths slow, Santorini Moon away a length late. Wildcat Aly traveled in the 2nd flight into the turn, made an early 3-wide move nearing the top of the stretch, inhaled the frontrunner while drifting wider turning for home, saw off the challenge of Victoria Lynn in midstretch and kicked clear again in the final 1/16 to win comfortably as best. Magnificent Mia tracked the leader 2-wide in 2nd, was checked back sharply off heels around the 5/16 pole when the winner made her move, dropping back to 4th, began to re-rally at the 1/8 and came on nicely to grab the place. Well done considering the trouble on the turn. Henny's Hurricane recovered from the slow start to produce an OK stretch kick and just nail the chalk for 3rd while never threatening for the win.

8-27-05
Break OK. O' Frederica was in the 2nd flight behind a 3-way pace squabble, put in the 2-path for the first half of the turn before making a sudden, sweeping 4-wide move into contention on near side of the turn, gradually wore down the lone remaining pace player inside the final 1/8 to win going away with a good trip. Let's Have Us One was sandwiched in that pace duel and emerged victorious from the battle entering midstretch, but had no real response when engaged by the winner at the 1/8 pole, stayed on a little better than evenly for the place. One More Cat was 3-wide on that duel, couldn't quite stay with the top two in deep stretch but kept on for a clear 3rd.

8-27-06
Break OK. See Me Proud was under a good hold in last while saving ground, made a looping 4-wide move on the near side of the far turn, inched towards two pace players inside the 1/8 pole and forged by them in the final 1/16, holding off a fellow closer who saved ground to the line. Big step forward. Was best by more than a neck in reality, as place horse Myhorseofcourse had a similar trip until the far turn but slipped through an opening at the hedge while the winner was going wide. Parachute Coney and Imperial Robyn traded the lead multiple times throughout the race, hooked up once and for all at the top of the lane, dueled until midstretch when neither could answer the challenges of the top pair. Not bad for either.

8-27-07
Forever Road missed the break, spotted the field about 4-5 lengths. Indian Splendor caught a flier and shot right out to set a clear and fast pace, stringing out the field down the backstretch, began to drift out at the 7/16 and eventually completely bolted to the outside rail. Has serious speed but racks disciprine at this point. Sensational Appeal was hard ridden going into the turn, saved ground before being put into the 3-path top lane, rallied to collar default leader Neon Moon past the 1/8 and win going away. Speaking Role was away a half-step slowly, dropped back to second-last down the backside, went 2-wide on the far turn, reached contention nearing the 1/8 pole, shied when asked to split horses to the inside, was taken to the outside and closed with interest to get the place while drifting out. Galloped out past the winner while still bearing out. Looks like the only remotely interesting horse from this slow race.

8-27-08
Can't Catch Me Now stumbled at the start, Alcolite broke 2-3 lengths slow. Leap was 3-wide in the 3rd flight around the turn, was put to a hard drive at the 3/8 without making a serious impact, continued to plug away until the 1/16 pole when he finally started to reel in the leader, got up in the last jump to win as best. Bigger colt should improve stretching out. Tough beat for Comandante, who made all the pace and appeared home free at the 1/8 pole but was nailed in the final stride. Pretty good debut for Western Grit, who ran alongside the winner 2-wide, had to be held up a bit in behind horses when that one made his move, was briefly leaned on by the tiring favorite in midstretch, stayed on well to finish an in-touch 3rd. No excuse for favored Shot Rock.

8-27-09
Ginger Snapit hopped at the start, got squeezed back and stumbled a few strides out of the gate. Go Unbridled dropped back towards the back behind average fractions, started to pick it up 2-wide midway on the far turn, slipped through inside a tiring pace player, rallied up to the leaders at the 1/8 pole and powered away from there to score as much the best. The Chief's mare was the only proven nine-furlong horse on paper and that proved out. Ginger Snapit was 2-wide on the first turn after her troubled start, unhurried in last down the backstretch, urged 2-3 wide on the far turn, couldn't quicken with the winner but came on late to get 3rd and was the only other horse still running in the stretch. Good effort, ran the 2nd best race.

8-27-10
Rockefeller missed the kick and was then squeezed back, while Gallant Breeze and Join Forces were off several lengths slow as well. Miss Suwanee made the lead easily, set sharp fractions and drew away in the stretch to score impressively over the boys off the layoff. Loud Pipes chased her all the way around the track and finished a clear place. No major trips behind the top pair.