Street Sense Number

[Pointg5]

I tend to agree with Randall, but Thoro's don't take into account biases, so it may have not been that bad...That's too much, too soon and likely going to do him in...

[outofthebox]

This could have been just one of those "freakish" numbers. A once and a lifetime performance. What we do know is that he is going to get at least 3 months off. I can't see Nazfger running him until March. And since Carl usually doesn't crank on one in the a.m., his prep races are certainly to be nowhere near the number he produced in the BC. So in reality, we won't know if Street Sense is capable of another neg number untill the Ky Derby, and boy, that is one long road ahead of him..Best of luck!

[Cannon Shell]

The horse only ran in bandages because he had cut up his leg a few days before. The wounds were superficial but they did not want to bring him over with a big cut showing on his leg, not to mention the possibility of infection.

I do have a problem with the horse running such a big number this early in his career. It would concern me simply because three year olds that win triple crown races usually show some improvement as they progress through their 3 year old year. His number, while impressive on its own merits, may be hard to be able to improve upon. I'm not sure how you could prevent a horse from running this big of a number but he is in uncharted territory right now.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The horse only ran in bandages because he had cut up his leg a few days before. The wounds were superficial but they did not want to bring him over with a big cut showing on his leg, not to mention the possibility of infection.

I do have a problem with the horse running such a big number this early in his career. It would concern me simply because three year olds that win triple crown races usually show some improvement as they progress through their 3 year old year. His number, while impressive on its own merits, may be hard to be able to improve upon. I'm not sure how you could prevent a horse from running this big of a number but he is in uncharted territory right now.

He could move back 3-4 points and he still wins any of the preps.....I remember betting a horse in the Derby last year that ran a friggin 4 or 5

[Kasept]

Another thing not being taken into consideration in this discussion is where the figure/performance came in regards to Street Sense's development. He debuted fast (7.75) and then alternated with a top (5.5), pair (6.5), pair (5.5). The -2 is a 7.5 point move as a two year old in the fall. Hardly outrageous if the point of reference is taken without the stunningly fast figure Saturday.

If another Juvy had gone 10.5, 8.5, 7.5, 8.5, 1 in a similar series, we'd be impressed and all but wouldn't be fearing for his future. Street Sense started out as a faster 2 year old. It could simply be that this is his natural progression and he's that fast. As Rev pointed out, as a February foal, he should already ahead of the curve physically.

It could be that he's an early developer, but considering that he has been getting faster as the distances stretch out, I'd doubt it a bit. Had he started his pattern at a 16 and gotten down to the -2, I'd be a lot more concerned that the effort could do him lasting damage. But given that he started fast and got faster by his fifth start, I'm prepared to expect a continuation of good things from him under the care of one of the game's real horsemen.

[blackthroatedwind]

Isn't it also worth noting that the fast figure was earned under optimal conditions...i.e. sitting off a fast pace and making a move up a strong rail?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Isn't it also worth noting that the fast figure was earned under optimal conditions...i.e. sitting off a fast pace and making a move up a strong rail?

Of course. Still a great number, but the perfect trip probably aided it a couple points.

All I know about this guy is he's a quality horse and I feel stupid for not going with my gut instinct that he was the best value in the race off a poorly timed run at KEE and instead just taking the more "cowardly" method of inclusion in a multirace bet.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Isn't it also worth noting that the fast figure was earned under optimal conditions...i.e. sitting off a fast pace and making a move up a strong rail?

I think that that is surely worth noting. I thought that just about every Breeders Cup winner had a perfect trip with the exception of Invasor who had a pretty good one. Dreaming of Anna got an unexpected easy lead. Street Sense got through on the rail. OB got a dream trip. Thors Echo was in an ideal position. Red Rocks got the first run and saved ground around the turns. Round Pond got a perfect pocket trip behind a fast pace with 2 contenders failing to complete the course. Miesques approval ran really well considering he passed pretty much the whole field and outkicked the kickers. He would have had probably the toughest trip of all the winners.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think that that is surely worth noting. I thought that just about every Breeders Cup winner had a perfect trip with the exception of Invasor who had a pretty good one. Dreaming of Anna got an unexpected easy lead. Street Sense got through on the rail. OB got a dream trip. Thors Echo was in an ideal position. Red Rocks got the first run and saved ground around the turns. Round Pond got a perfect pocket trip behind a fast pace with 2 contenders failing to complete the course. Miesques approval ran really well considering he passed pretty much the whole field and outkicked the kickers. He would have had probably the toughest trip of all the winners.

Isn't that usually the norm in BC races? Or in any race with 14 horses for that matter. Only a far superior horse can overcome a bad trip in full fields of good horses. There are too many good horses in the BC to let someone overcome a bad trip.

[randallscott35]

Steve, a 7 debut is good. A "0" debut by Discreet last year is the freakish fast kind.

Too much development, too early for Street I'm afraid. We'll see.


As for the wraps comments before on Nafzger. He absolutely runs most of his horses in wraps all the time, as does Wilkes by the way. The difference here is that he didn't always do that with Street Sense. Could be something, might be nothing. But I've seen enough of the wraps on angle as a warning sign in my life to be skeptical. Bluegrass Cat anyone?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Another thing not being taken into consideration in this discussion is where the figure/performance came in regards to Street Sense's development. He debuted fast (7.75) and then alternated with a top (5.5), pair (6.5), pair (5.5). The -2 is a 7.5 point move as a two year old in the fall. Hardly outrageous if the point of reference is taken without the stunningly fast figure Saturday.

If another Juvy had gone 10.5, 8.5, 7.5, 8.5, 1 in a similar series, we'd be impressed and all but wouldn't be fearing for his future. Street Sense started out as a faster 2 year old. It could simply be that this is his natural progression and he's that fast. As Rev pointed out, as a February foal, he should already ahead of the curve physically.

It could be that he's an early developer, but considering that he has been getting faster as the distances stretch out, I'd doubt it a bit. Had he started his pattern at a 16 and gotten down to the -2, I'd be a lot more concerned that the effort could do him lasting damage. But given that he started fast and got faster by his fifth start, I'm prepared to expect a continuation of good things from him under the care of one of the game's real horsemen.

TEN points Steve in 5 months, not only is that super impressive, but also ALOT of improvement, I guess in actuality it is expected from a 2 year old but from a wagering perspective, value has been sucked completely dry and is unplayable until he gets to the Derby, if he does

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Another thing not being taken into consideration in this discussion is where the figure/performance came in regards to Street Sense's development. He debuted fast (7.75) and then alternated with a top (5.5), pair (6.5), pair (5.5). The -2 is a 7.5 point move as a two year old in the fall. Hardly outrageous if the point of reference is taken without the stunningly fast figure Saturday.

If another Juvy had gone 10.5, 8.5, 7.5, 8.5, 1 in a similar series, we'd be impressed and all but wouldn't be fearing for his future. Street Sense started out as a faster 2 year old. It could simply be that this is his natural progression and he's that fast. As Rev pointed out, as a February foal, he should already ahead of the curve physically.

It could be that he's an early developer, but considering that he has been getting faster as the distances stretch out, I'd doubt it a bit. Had he started his pattern at a 16 and gotten down to the -2, I'd be a lot more concerned that the effort could do him lasting damage. But given that he started fast and got faster by his fifth start, I'm prepared to expect a continuation of good things from him under the care of one of the game's real horsemen.

What you say is true but I still worry about 7.5 pts of development from a 2 yo. that already is running good figures. It just seems that very few if any horses that move up that much have any development left in them. I know he was a three year old but Talkin man had a huge jump up in the Wood and was never the same horse after. Though every horse and situation is different, and I am not a knocker of the horse by any means, I will be suprised if he becomes a superhorse and breaks through that number anytime soon.

[lemoncrush]

I think it's an interesting theory, and since I don't follow sheet numbers much, I'm interested to see how he turns out.
I have to agree it's a little premature to bury a horse that won so impressively.
We all know how difficult it is to predict a derby favorite this early, and I would guess we'll be talking about several other new contenders by the first of the year.