Street Sense Number

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Looked at them earlier today Rand.. I'll take the bet above. Carl Nafzger is the deciding factor here. He won't run him back until February.. He knows what he's got and did from the get-go. Sunday at the Breakfast he explained how he and Borel worked with Street Sense and how he planned to bring him along...

Nafzger, who told Mike Smith in July of 1989 that Unbridled was a Derby horse, said he knew right away what he had in this colt.

Steve, all you have to do is look at past history...Keyed Entry and FuSam last year in the winter running their tops. How about Second of June from a few years back?(took him years to go back to negative territory and then he was gone) When they run this fast, this early it is always, I repeat always a negative....And I would never put my eggs in the basket of a 2 yr old in his 5th start needing wraps. Never.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Steve, all you have to do is look at past history...Keyed Entry and FuSam last year in the winter running their tops. How about Second of June from a few years back?(took him years to go back to negative territory and then he was gone) When they run this fast, this early it is always, I repeat always a negative....And I would never put my eggs in the basket of a 2 yr old in his 5th start needing wraps. Never.

Needing wraps and using wraps are two different things. Afleet Alex always ran in wraps.. what of it?

Running the big effort isn't the issue... Running back too soon after the effort IS... Carl Nafzger is again, the difference here.

Keyed Entry ran on that horrible sloppy track at Gulfstream which also ruined First Samurai, and then ran back way too soon in the Gotham (?)...

Second of June ran back as well after the FOY and wasn't even three at the time yet (chronologically)...

FuSam.. who cares?

Nafzger will turn this colt out and give him every minute he needs to recover.

[Pointg5]

I tend to agree with Randall, but Thoro's don't take into account biases, so it may have not been that bad...That's too much, too soon and likely going to do him in...

[outofthebox]

This could have been just one of those "freakish" numbers. A once and a lifetime performance. What we do know is that he is going to get at least 3 months off. I can't see Nazfger running him until March. And since Carl usually doesn't crank on one in the a.m., his prep races are certainly to be nowhere near the number he produced in the BC. So in reality, we won't know if Street Sense is capable of another neg number untill the Ky Derby, and boy, that is one long road ahead of him..Best of luck!

[Cannon Shell]

The horse only ran in bandages because he had cut up his leg a few days before. The wounds were superficial but they did not want to bring him over with a big cut showing on his leg, not to mention the possibility of infection.

I do have a problem with the horse running such a big number this early in his career. It would concern me simply because three year olds that win triple crown races usually show some improvement as they progress through their 3 year old year. His number, while impressive on its own merits, may be hard to be able to improve upon. I'm not sure how you could prevent a horse from running this big of a number but he is in uncharted territory right now.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The horse only ran in bandages because he had cut up his leg a few days before. The wounds were superficial but they did not want to bring him over with a big cut showing on his leg, not to mention the possibility of infection.

I do have a problem with the horse running such a big number this early in his career. It would concern me simply because three year olds that win triple crown races usually show some improvement as they progress through their 3 year old year. His number, while impressive on its own merits, may be hard to be able to improve upon. I'm not sure how you could prevent a horse from running this big of a number but he is in uncharted territory right now.

He could move back 3-4 points and he still wins any of the preps.....I remember betting a horse in the Derby last year that ran a friggin 4 or 5

[Kasept]

Another thing not being taken into consideration in this discussion is where the figure/performance came in regards to Street Sense's development. He debuted fast (7.75) and then alternated with a top (5.5), pair (6.5), pair (5.5). The -2 is a 7.5 point move as a two year old in the fall. Hardly outrageous if the point of reference is taken without the stunningly fast figure Saturday.

If another Juvy had gone 10.5, 8.5, 7.5, 8.5, 1 in a similar series, we'd be impressed and all but wouldn't be fearing for his future. Street Sense started out as a faster 2 year old. It could simply be that this is his natural progression and he's that fast. As Rev pointed out, as a February foal, he should already ahead of the curve physically.

It could be that he's an early developer, but considering that he has been getting faster as the distances stretch out, I'd doubt it a bit. Had he started his pattern at a 16 and gotten down to the -2, I'd be a lot more concerned that the effort could do him lasting damage. But given that he started fast and got faster by his fifth start, I'm prepared to expect a continuation of good things from him under the care of one of the game's real horsemen.

[blackthroatedwind]

Isn't it also worth noting that the fast figure was earned under optimal conditions...i.e. sitting off a fast pace and making a move up a strong rail?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Isn't it also worth noting that the fast figure was earned under optimal conditions...i.e. sitting off a fast pace and making a move up a strong rail?

Of course. Still a great number, but the perfect trip probably aided it a couple points.

All I know about this guy is he's a quality horse and I feel stupid for not going with my gut instinct that he was the best value in the race off a poorly timed run at KEE and instead just taking the more "cowardly" method of inclusion in a multirace bet.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Isn't it also worth noting that the fast figure was earned under optimal conditions...i.e. sitting off a fast pace and making a move up a strong rail?

I think that that is surely worth noting. I thought that just about every Breeders Cup winner had a perfect trip with the exception of Invasor who had a pretty good one. Dreaming of Anna got an unexpected easy lead. Street Sense got through on the rail. OB got a dream trip. Thors Echo was in an ideal position. Red Rocks got the first run and saved ground around the turns. Round Pond got a perfect pocket trip behind a fast pace with 2 contenders failing to complete the course. Miesques approval ran really well considering he passed pretty much the whole field and outkicked the kickers. He would have had probably the toughest trip of all the winners.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Another thing not being taken into consideration in this discussion is where the figure/performance came in regards to Street Sense's development. He debuted fast (7.75) and then alternated with a top (5.5), pair (6.5), pair (5.5). The -2 is a 7.5 point move as a two year old in the fall. Hardly outrageous if the point of reference is taken without the stunningly fast figure Saturday.

If another Juvy had gone 10.5, 8.5, 7.5, 8.5, 1 in a similar series, we'd be impressed and all but wouldn't be fearing for his future. Street Sense started out as a faster 2 year old. It could simply be that this is his natural progression and he's that fast. As Rev pointed out, as a February foal, he should already ahead of the curve physically.

It could be that he's an early developer, but considering that he has been getting faster as the distances stretch out, I'd doubt it a bit. Had he started his pattern at a 16 and gotten down to the -2, I'd be a lot more concerned that the effort could do him lasting damage. But given that he started fast and got faster by his fifth start, I'm prepared to expect a continuation of good things from him under the care of one of the game's real horsemen.

TEN points Steve in 5 months, not only is that super impressive, but also ALOT of improvement, I guess in actuality it is expected from a 2 year old but from a wagering perspective, value has been sucked completely dry and is unplayable until he gets to the Derby, if he does

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Another thing not being taken into consideration in this discussion is where the figure/performance came in regards to Street Sense's development. He debuted fast (7.75) and then alternated with a top (5.5), pair (6.5), pair (5.5). The -2 is a 7.5 point move as a two year old in the fall. Hardly outrageous if the point of reference is taken without the stunningly fast figure Saturday.

If another Juvy had gone 10.5, 8.5, 7.5, 8.5, 1 in a similar series, we'd be impressed and all but wouldn't be fearing for his future. Street Sense started out as a faster 2 year old. It could simply be that this is his natural progression and he's that fast. As Rev pointed out, as a February foal, he should already ahead of the curve physically.

It could be that he's an early developer, but considering that he has been getting faster as the distances stretch out, I'd doubt it a bit. Had he started his pattern at a 16 and gotten down to the -2, I'd be a lot more concerned that the effort could do him lasting damage. But given that he started fast and got faster by his fifth start, I'm prepared to expect a continuation of good things from him under the care of one of the game's real horsemen.

What you say is true but I still worry about 7.5 pts of development from a 2 yo. that already is running good figures. It just seems that very few if any horses that move up that much have any development left in them. I know he was a three year old but Talkin man had a huge jump up in the Wood and was never the same horse after. Though every horse and situation is different, and I am not a knocker of the horse by any means, I will be suprised if he becomes a superhorse and breaks through that number anytime soon.

[lemoncrush]

I think it's an interesting theory, and since I don't follow sheet numbers much, I'm interested to see how he turns out.
I have to agree it's a little premature to bury a horse that won so impressively.
We all know how difficult it is to predict a derby favorite this early, and I would guess we'll be talking about several other new contenders by the first of the year.

[Revolution]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Needing wraps and using wraps are two different things. Afleet Alex always ran in wraps.. what of it?

Running the big effort isn't the issue... Running back too soon after the effort IS... Carl Nafzger is again, the difference here.

Keyed Entry ran on that horrible sloppy track at Gulfstream which also ruined First Samurai, and then ran back way too soon in the Gotham (?)...

Second of June ran back as well after the FOY and wasn't even three at the time yet (chronologically)...

FuSam.. who cares?

Nafzger will turn this colt out and give him every minute he needs to recover.

I though First Samurai was ruined by a starting gate and broken ribs.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Revolution

I though First Samurai was ruined by a starting gate and broken ribs.

Rev,

That may have finished things up.. But I always felt that coming off the winter layoff, the huge effort that day at GP on the totally sloppy track, as heavy a horse as he was, really knocked First Samurai for a loop physically. He pounded down to the clay in that race, all out... Brothers had to really nurse him along after that.

Hopefully Lansdon will see this tonight and give his perspective, but that's the way I saw it this winter/spring...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Rev,

That may have finished things up.. But I always felt that coming off the winter layoff, the huge effort that day at GP on the totally sloppy track, as heavy a horse as he was, really knocked First Samurai for a loop physically. He pounded down to the clay in that race, all out... Brothers had to really nurse him along after that.

Hopefully Lansdon will see this tonight and give his perspective, but that's the way I saw it this winter/spring...

yep, that race was SERIOUSLY fast and the conditions are what smoked him, gutted him......For him to come back and run the race he did in the FOY is amazing if you ask me, even with the bootleg ride that the jock put on that day, I think it was Prado......

Nafzger routinely runs his horses in front bandages whether they need them or not and has for years. I actually had a conversation with Unbridled's groom about it once. She said it was just his thing...

Remember Banshee Breeze? She never needed them either, but ran in them as a precaution. Since Nafzger is on all our radar now, pay close attention to how many go postward in those front bandages. Not a toss-out reason when it comes to him.

I remember bandages on Mayo on the Side, Carmandia, Eurosilver, Santana Strings, Softly, Atlas Valley, so many more all wore bandages when sent postward by Nafzger.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by redransom

Nafzger routinely runs his horses in front bandages whether they need them or not and has for years. I actually had a conversation with Unbridled's groom about it once. She said it was just his thing...

Remember Banshee Breeze? She never needed them either, but ran in them as a precaution. Since Nafzger is on all our radar now, pay close attention to how many go postward in those front bandages. Not a toss-out reason when it comes to him.

I remember bandages on Mayo on the Side, Carmandia, Eurosilver, Santana Strings, Softly, Atlas Valley, so many more all wore bandages when sent postward by Nafzger.

Banshee Breeze was a VERY sore going horse. But, good horses can run through soreness.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Needing wraps and using wraps are two different things. Afleet Alex always ran in wraps.. what of it?

Running the big effort isn't the issue... Running back too soon after the effort IS... Carl Nafzger is again, the difference here.

Keyed Entry ran on that horrible sloppy track at Gulfstream which also ruined First Samurai, and then ran back way too soon in the Gotham (?)...

Second of June ran back as well after the FOY and wasn't even three at the time yet (chronologically)...

FuSam.. who cares?

Nafzger will turn this colt out and give him every minute he needs to recover.

We'll see Steve. The idea that Nafzger will magically wipe away a number like that b/c its him doesn't seem to make sense to me. Brothers and Pletcher and every other trainer that has had a young horse run a number even close to that even later in his campaign were unable to stop the inevitable. You can throw Read the Footnotes into this debate as well as he was finished off something like this also.

You are also guessing on the reason for the wraps. The fact is, the wraps weren't there for the previous starts so why now? Afleet Alex, if I'm correct, ran in wraps for only for the latter portion of his three year old season, which again was cut short due to retirement(he didn't even come close to finishing his 3 yr old season---that can't be your hope for Street Sense b/c that wouldn't be very successful at all).

Nafzger makes no difference at all.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You are also guessing on the reason for the wraps. The fact is, the wraps weren't there for the previous starts so why now? Afleet Alex, if I'm correct, ran in wraps for only for the latter portion of his three year old season, which again was cut short due to retirement(he didn't even come close to finishing his 3 yr old season---that can't be your hope for Street Sense b/c that wouldn't be very successful at all). Nafzger makes no difference at all.

Nafzger knows the horse. We don't. I can tell you though that Sunday, Nafzger said he will have him off now until late January/early February. Should ideally be plenty of time.

Wraps could have gone on as a protective measure due to concerns over the huge field.. getting kicked.. gaudged.. etc.. Tell you what.. We'll get Nafzger on the show tomorrow or next week, and we'll ask or you can call in...