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#1
11-09-2006, 11:22 AM
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Congrats to Giacomo also who finally broke into a negative number for the first time in his career.
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#3
11-09-2006, 11:26 AM
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Looked at them earlier today Rand.. I'll take the bet above. Carl Nafzger is the deciding factor here. He won't run him back until February.. He knows what he's got and did from the get-go. Sunday at the Breakfast he explained how he and Borel worked with Street Sense and how he planned to bring him along...
Nafzger, who told Mike Smith in July of 1989 that Unbridled was a Derby horse, said he knew right away what he had in this colt.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
11-09-2006, 11:32 AM
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Steve, all you have to do is look at past history...Keyed Entry and FuSam last year in the winter running their tops. How about Second of June from a few years back?(took him years to go back to negative territory and then he was gone) When they run this fast, this early it is always, I repeat always a negative....And I would never put my eggs in the basket of a 2 yr old in his 5th start needing wraps. Never.
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#5
11-09-2006, 11:40 AM
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Running the big effort isn't the issue... Running back too soon after the effort IS... Carl Nafzger is again, the difference here. Keyed Entry ran on that horrible sloppy track at Gulfstream which also ruined First Samurai, and then ran back way too soon in the Gotham (?)... Second of June ran back as well after the FOY and wasn't even three at the time yet (chronologically)... FuSam.. who cares? Nafzger will turn this colt out and give him every minute he needs to recover.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
11-09-2006, 11:59 AM
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This could have been just one of those "freakish" numbers. A once and a lifetime performance. What we do know is that he is going to get at least 3 months off. I can't see Nazfger running him until March. And since Carl usually doesn't crank on one in the a.m., his prep races are certainly to be nowhere near the number he produced in the BC. So in reality, we won't know if Street Sense is capable of another neg number untill the Ky Derby, and boy, that is one long road ahead of him..Best of luck!
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#8
11-09-2006, 12:36 PM
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The horse only ran in bandages because he had cut up his leg a few days before. The wounds were superficial but they did not want to bring him over with a big cut showing on his leg, not to mention the possibility of infection.
I do have a problem with the horse running such a big number this early in his career. It would concern me simply because three year olds that win triple crown races usually show some improvement as they progress through their 3 year old year. His number, while impressive on its own merits, may be hard to be able to improve upon. I'm not sure how you could prevent a horse from running this big of a number but he is in uncharted territory right now.
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#9
11-09-2006, 12:42 PM
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#10
11-09-2006, 12:56 PM
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Another element to this...
Another thing not being taken into consideration in this discussion is where the figure/performance came in regards to Street Sense's development. He debuted fast (7.75) and then alternated with a top (5.5), pair (6.5), pair (5.5). The -2 is a 7.5 point move as a two year old in the fall. Hardly outrageous if the point of reference is taken without the stunningly fast figure Saturday.
If another Juvy had gone 10.5, 8.5, 7.5, 8.5, 1 in a similar series, we'd be impressed and all but wouldn't be fearing for his future. Street Sense started out as a faster 2 year old. It could simply be that this is his natural progression and he's that fast. As Rev pointed out, as a February foal, he should already ahead of the curve physically. It could be that he's an early developer, but considering that he has been getting faster as the distances stretch out, I'd doubt it a bit. Had he started his pattern at a 16 and gotten down to the -2, I'd be a lot more concerned that the effort could do him lasting damage. But given that he started fast and got faster by his fifth start, I'm prepared to expect a continuation of good things from him under the care of one of the game's real horsemen.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 11-09-2006 at 12:59 PM.
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#11
11-09-2006, 02:37 PM
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I think it's an interesting theory, and since I don't follow sheet numbers much, I'm interested to see how he turns out.
I have to agree it's a little premature to bury a horse that won so impressively. We all know how difficult it is to predict a derby favorite this early, and I would guess we'll be talking about several other new contenders by the first of the year.
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#12
11-09-2006, 11:43 AM
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#13
11-09-2006, 11:48 AM
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That may have finished things up.. But I always felt that coming off the winter layoff, the huge effort that day at GP on the totally sloppy track, as heavy a horse as he was, really knocked First Samurai for a loop physically. He pounded down to the clay in that race, all out... Brothers had to really nurse him along after that. Hopefully Lansdon will see this tonight and give his perspective, but that's the way I saw it this winter/spring...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#14
11-09-2006, 12:31 PM
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#15
11-09-2006, 11:48 AM
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You are also guessing on the reason for the wraps. The fact is, the wraps weren't there for the previous starts so why now? Afleet Alex, if I'm correct, ran in wraps for only for the latter portion of his three year old season, which again was cut short due to retirement(he didn't even come close to finishing his 3 yr old season---that can't be your hope for Street Sense b/c that wouldn't be very successful at all). Nafzger makes no difference at all.
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#16
11-09-2006, 11:57 AM
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Wraps could have gone on as a protective measure due to concerns over the huge field.. getting kicked.. gaudged.. etc.. Tell you what.. We'll get Nafzger on the show tomorrow or next week, and we'll ask or you can call in...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#17
11-09-2006, 11:58 AM
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Wraps were added because the rail was hard. Nafzger makes alot of difference and I recall the race being over in a matter of strides, with 'Sense being gathered up late.
He will race two or three times before the Ky derby if things go well and certainly will not win the first prep, or the Bluegrass in Lexington. His best days are ahead of him. BBB
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#18
11-09-2006, 12:01 PM
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#19
11-09-2006, 12:18 PM
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Ya know, there was a time, before EPO, when good horses ran good races....and continued to run good races.
Who knows, maybe Street Sense is actually a good horse. I think he is. I can't even begin to understand how running a fast race in November would hurt a good horse four or six months later. Then again, I think the entire bounce theory is a crock.
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#20
11-09-2006, 12:28 PM
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if he runs that number in the Derby, he would win by about 10 lengths
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