Derby replaces graded earnings with point system

[slotdirt]

That must be an oversight on the Illinois Derby. How do you include races like the El Camino Real and skip the Illinois Derby?

[slotdirt]

Also, why is the UAE Derby so valuable? The best ever finish by a UAE Derby-Kentucky Derby horse is 8th by Regal Ransom in 2009.

On second glance, this system needs some serious tweaking.

[slotdirt]

The f'ing Blue Grass will produce a couple guaranteed Derby starters every year (not that this is anything new). We need more Monbas.

[jms62]

So Violence gets 10 Whole points for his Grade 2 and Grade 1 wins to close out the year. Shanghai Boobby gets 10 for winning the Juvenile. Both could have gotten as much for a 3rd in the Sunland Derby. Do those that come up with these ideas ever simulate these scenarios?

[3kings]

Originally Posted by jms62

So Violence gets 10 Whole points for his Grade 2 and Grade 1 wins to close out the year. Shanghai Boobby gets 10 for winning the Juvenile. Both could have gotten as much for a 3rd in the Sunland Derby. Do those that come up with these ideas ever simulate these scenarios?

They were trying to eliminate the free spots for races like the Delta Jackpot and other races where the horses earned all their graded earnings sprinting or as 2 year olds. In the last 10 years there were a bunch of horses in the derby gate that didn't run a lick as three year olds. Is this the perfect system, of course not. I agree it needs tweeked but I'm curious to see how it plays out.

[NTamm1215]

Poor Todd Pletcher will actually have to run his newly turned 3YOs in two graded stakes races instead of one now.

I'm also of the opinion that the system is not perfect but am interested to see how it changes where horses land in the spring.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by 3kings

They were trying to eliminate the free spots for races like the Delta Jackpot and other races where the horses earned all their graded earnings sprinting or as 2 year olds. In the last 10 years there were a bunch of horses in the derby gate that didn't run a lick as three year olds. Is this the perfect system, of course not. I agree it needs tweeked but I'm curious to see how it plays out.

I understand what they are trying to do and agree but I think it is a no brainer to give equal points to ALL graded Route races both 2 and 3 year old year.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by jms62

I understand what they are trying to do and agree but I think it is a no brainer to give equal points to ALL graded Route races both 2 and 3 year old year.

I'm for more emphasis being put on the three year old year, maybe a 3:2 ratio for points earned. I like to see these horses run against each other a few times and think they might have to how. I'm hoping the "2 race" campaign before the derby is going to be lessened.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

On second glance, this system needs some serious tweaking.

What do you expect from them?

Justin Dew is probably the sharpest and most competent person employed by Churchill Downs in the last 25 years.

[slotdirt]

And I noticed a tweet from Justin Dew directed at the Derby inquiring about the Illinois Derby exclusion.

[Travis Stone]

It's not perfect, and there are likely a few tweaks to follow, but in my opinion this shows how horse racing can better market itself without having to spend millions of dollars to do so. The "phases" stuff is a bit abstract, but the concept has a lot of potential.

[Linny]

Clearly, unless a filly has taken on the boys in prior starts, we won't be seeing any fillies in the Derby. That's too bad. The "Oaks or Derby" speculation seems to create some interest in years when there is a very good filly or two around.

I guess I can see why they are not including any sprints (Hopeful, DM Futurity or any short early season races like the Hutchison) but horses like Trinniberg and other sprinters who have run in the Derby have added interest and PACE to the race.

I realize that the BCJ has historically not been a bellwether for Derby success, but to rank it as on par with the Withers or the Delta Jackpot or the El Camino Real seems ... well... strange.

It appears to be an attempt and "manufacturing" the "proper" Derby field rather than allowing it to develop in a more organic fashion.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Linny

It appears to be an attempt and "manufacturing" the "proper" Derby field rather than allowing it to develop in a more organic fashion.

While this year he had every right to contest the race, a fast sprinter like Trinniberg in the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby doesn't sound too organic to me.

[Calzone Lord]

Arazi was a 4-to-5 favorite in the Kentucky Derby. I believe he was the last odds-on Derby favorite.

That would be hilarious if a would-be odds on favorite can't get into the race because of how they fixed something that truthfully wasn't broke.

Who are the horses who would have got in under this silly point system, that were otherwise excluded from the Derby because of lack of earnings?

Rachel Alexandra opted for the Kentucky Oaks -- but she is another who would have been excluded.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Linny

Clearly, unless a filly has taken on the boys in prior starts, we won't be seeing any fillies in the Derby. That's too bad. The "Oaks or Derby" speculation seems to create some interest in years when there is a very good filly or two around.

I guess I can see why they are not including any sprints (Hopeful, DM Futurity or any short early season races like the Hutchison) but horses like Trinniberg and other sprinters who have run in the Derby have added interest and PACE to the race.

I realize that the BCJ has historically not been a bellwether for Derby success, but to rank it as on par with the Withers or the Delta Jackpot or the El Camino Real seems ... well... strange.

It appears to be an attempt and "manufacturing" the "proper" Derby field rather than allowing it to develop in a more organic fashion.

I can see where you would want to craft a cutoff, say for the sake of argument, October - to eliminate sprints from consideration. I think most of the classic distance runners start short early and should be handling 2 turns October. Eliminating the Saratoga Special, the Sanford and the Hopeful - as well as the Dmr Futurity is fruitless, and may impact how trainers of potential Derby contenders approach both meets.

[MaTH716]

I would be more interested in a 3 year old points series (for fillies as well) that started at the begining of the year and went through the Breeders Cup.

[NTamm1215]

By my quick calculations, this is what the 2012 Derby field would have looked like using this system:

I'll Have Another 110
Bodemeister 120
Dullahan 111
Went the Day Well 50
Creative Cause 102
Liaison 12
Union Rags 84
Rousing Sermon 26
Hansen 100
Daddy Nose Best 60
Optimizer 23
Alpha 54
El Padrino 62
Done Talking 1? (I think they accidentally omitted the Ill Derby)
Sabercat 30
Gemologist 110
Trinniberg 0
Prospective 64
Take Charge Indy 101
Daddy Long Legs 100

[3kings]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

By my quick calculations, this is what the 2012 Derby field would have looked like using this system:

I'll Have Another 110
Bodemeister 120
Dullahan 111
Went the Day Well 50
Creative Cause 102
Liaison 12
Union Rags 84
Rousing Sermon 26
Hansen 100
Daddy Nose Best 60
Optimizer 23
Alpha 54
El Padrino 62
Done Talking 1? (I think they accidentally omitted the Ill Derby)
Sabercat 30
Gemologist 110
Trinniberg 0
Prospective 64
Take Charge Indy 101
Daddy Long Legs 100

If you look at it this way it looks pretty good, just eliminating hopeless horses. This system will make the last 2 major preps in CA, NY, FL,ARK, and LA have large loaded fields.

[Travis Stone]

The two things that stick-out to me... The Illinois Derby should be on the list. And the BC Juvenile should be worth more as the season ending championship for 2yo's and the attention it gets leading into the 3yo year.

[Alan07]

KENTUCKY OAKS PREP SEASON

Points: 10-4-2-1

Fillies’ Mile 1 M (T) Newmarket
Oak Leaf** 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Alcibiades 1 1/16 M (S) Keeneland
Frizette 1 M Belmont
Mazarine 1 1/16 M (S)
Pocahontas 1 M Churchill Downs
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Delta Downs Princess 1 M Delta Downs
Demoiselle 1 1/8 M Aqueduct
Golden Rod 1 1/16 M Churchill Downs
Hollywood Starlet 1 1/16 M (S) Hollywood Park
Old Hat 6 F Gulfstream Park
Busanda 1 M Aqueduct
Santa Ynez 6 ½ F Santa Anita
Silverbulletday 1 M 70 Y
California Oaks 1 1/16 M (S) Golden Gate
Santa Ysabel 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Forward Gal 7 F Gulfstream Park
UAE 1000 Guineas 1 M (S) Meydan
Martha Washington 1 M Oaklawn


KENTUCKY OAKS CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

First Leg of Series (50-20-10-5)

UAE Oaks 1 3/16 M (S) Meydan
Davona Dale 1 1/16 M Gulfstream Park
Rachel Alexandra 1 1/16 M Fair Grounds
Las Virgenes 1 M Santa Anita
Honeybee 1 1/16 M Oaklawn Park
Cicada 6 F Aqueduct
Bourbonette Oaks 1 M (S) Turfway
Sunland Oaks 1 1/16 M Sunland


Second Leg of Series (100-40-20-10)

Fair Grounds Oaks 1 1/16 M Fair Grounds
Gulfstream Oaks 1 1/8 M Gulfstream Park
Santa Anita Oaks 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Ashland 1 1/16 M (S) Keeneland
Comely 1 M Aqueduct
Fantasy 1 1/16 M Oaklawn


“Wild Card” (20-8-4-2)

Beaumont 7 F (S) Keeneland

** Will be renamed at a later date.