I'll Have Another's value as a stallion if he sweeps the Triple Crown

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Creative Cause is going to stand somewhere for 15k unless he pads his resume further.

Agreed. I don't think CC is all that much, at least on dirt. Also, it's not like GC has been a superb sire of sires.

Bode is a no brainer.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Agreed. I don't think CC is all that much, at least on dirt. Also, it's not like GC has been a superb sire of sires.

Bode is a no brainer.

Creative Cause won his debut in 56.20 for 5fs and got a 98 Beyer. In his 2nd start -- he made short work of I'll Have Another in the Best Pal at 6.5f.

Creative Cause is a Giant's Causeway out of a millionaire Grade 1 winning router racemare.

Creative Cause is trained by a 71-year-old low ROI guy -- he claims his two best horses prior to CC are Swiss Yodeler and Buck Trout. Swiss Yodeler was 0-for-15 with only a single 2nd place finish after the age of two. Buck Trout won two races his entire career.

Speed: check
Precocity: check
Pedigree: check
Weak trainer: check

This horse has more durability and a better 2yo form as well.

Most of the good Giant's Causeways are slugs early on.

Doug O' Neill got Thor's Echo from Harrington after a maiden race -- and he ended up eventually winning the Breeders Cup Sprint by 4 lengths and being voted champion sprinter. Thor's Echo was sired by the mighty Swiss Yodeler.

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Creative Cause won his debut in 56.20 for 5fs and got a 98 Beyer. In his 2nd start -- he made short work of I'll Have Another in the Best Pal at 6.5f.

Creative Cause is a Giant's Causeway out of a millionaire Grade 1 winning router racemare.

Creative Cause is trained by a 71-year-old low ROI guy -- he claims his two best horses prior to CC are Swiss Yodeler and Buck Trout. Swiss Yodeler was 0-for-15 with only a single 2nd place finish after the age of two. Buck Trout won two races his entire career.

Speed: check
Precocity: check
Pedigree: check
Weak trainer: check

This horse has more durability and a better 2yo form as well.

Most of the good Giant's Causeways are slugs early on.

Doug O' Neill got Thor's Echo from Harrington after a maiden race -- and he ended up eventually winning the Breeders Cup Sprint by 4 lengths and being voted champion sprinter. Thor's Echo was sired by the mighty Swiss Yodeler.

Honest question, is California synth now a respected surface? or should some of these efforts be dismissed?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by PeteMugg

Honest question, is California synth now a respected surface? or should some of these efforts be dismissed?

Creative Cause beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe on dirt with a 102 Beyer and a 0 on TG the last time he wore blinkers.

He was beaten a nose by I'll Have Another in the SA Derby.

Everyone was certain Creative Cause was physically amiss going into the Kentucky Derby. He was missing training, Bruno De Jullio was saying he never looked worse, he had an issue with a foot and all this other stuff,

That's a tough horse. He's got a low ROI cowboy training him, he was raced heavy at age 2 and keeps answering the bell. The other two big horses are being training by a couple of alchemists ... and they both missed a lot of dances at age 2.

I just prefer Creative Cause as the better sire prospect. Bodemeister obviously 2nd best. I'll Have Another might be the 15th best stallion prospect in this crop.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Creative Cause won his debut in 56.20 for 5fs and got a 98 Beyer. In his 2nd start -- he made short work of I'll Have Another in the Best Pal at 6.5f.

Creative Cause is a Giant's Causeway out of a millionaire Grade 1 winning router racemare.

Creative Cause is trained by a 71-year-old low ROI guy -- he claims his two best horses prior to CC are Swiss Yodeler and Buck Trout. Swiss Yodeler was 0-for-15 with only a single 2nd place finish after the age of two. Buck Trout won two races his entire career.

Speed: check
Precocity: check
Pedigree: check
Weak trainer: check

This horse has more durability and a better 2yo form as well.

Most of the good Giant's Causeways are slugs early on.

Doug O' Neill got Thor's Echo from Harrington after a maiden race -- and he ended up eventually winning the Breeders Cup Sprint by 4 lengths and being voted champion sprinter. Thor's Echo was sired by the mighty Swiss Yodeler.

Wasn't his debut at DMR though? Also, the dam you like to keep mentioning is a calbred with pretty unfashionable breeding.

[Charismatic1]

I think it could get up to $60-70 million if he wins the Triple Crown. A few farms will find that simply having the Triple Crown Messiah on their stallion roster is worth that bill.

When you add the inevitable interest from Japanese stallion stations, it's going to be hefty, because the Japanese don't view or value our pedigrees the same way. They go after American horses that can win big 10-furlong races: Roses in May, Silver Charm, Charismatic, War Emblem, and obviously Sunday Silence from two decades ago. (I may be forgetting a couple obvious studs.) They made a STRONG push for Tiznow as well. I do not think a Japanese farm will get I'll Have Another, but I mention their interest because it will drive the price tag up quite considerably.

I think the more interesting question is what his stud fee will be when he retires. Fees for freshmen have fluctuated so much in the last twelve years or so.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

I think the more interesting question is what his stud fee will be when he retires.

He will most likely be standing for $7,500 when his first crop are 5-year-olds.

Overdriven will stand for $7,500 in his first crop -- and will almost certainly be a much better stallion despite having a harder road initially.

Take Charge Indy is A. P. Indy-Take Charge Lady and won his debut sprinting and had a much better 2-year-old season for now hapless trainer Pay Byrne.

Algorithams is an undefeated son of Bernardini who won at a mile with a 5 length win over Hansen and earned a big figure last out.

Fed Biz cost $950,000 as a yearling and is a speedier router than I'll Have Another. He beat Blueskiesandrainbows by 12.5 lengths in his last start -- and that one was 3rd by a half length to I'll Have Another at 9 furlongs in the SA Derby.

I'll Have Another has never separated himself as a top performer at any distance of 9fs or less.

That's obviously important for a top stallion prospect because 99.5% of all races are at less than 9f -- and it worrisome because of the short comings of his 2yo campaign, the short comings of his pedigree, and the short comings of his lack of success in auction rings. It's also not encouraging that he's trained by an alchemist.

If you pay $70 million for him solely because he was able to wear down Bodemeister (a horse with no 2yo foundation) twice after 9 furlongs --- what does that make Bode worth considering he has a way more fashionable pedigree and superior raw speed?

Sunday Silence was by a sire who threw about ten different Grade 1 winners and multiple champions. Sunday Silence was out of a dam who was a multiple Graded Stakes winning race mare. Flower Alley stands for $7,500. Why wouldn't he suddenly become worth a fortune as well?

[Charismatic1]

Maybe when he's 5, sure. However, I have seen many horses with fashionable pedigrees and comparable attributes to the horses you mentioned also drop to $10,000 or less after a much higher freshman fee. Then, there are horses like lowly Cal-bred Tiznow, who didn't excel at 9 furlongs or less and known more for his grit than his talent. Many were surprised when he started at $30k or $35k, but he's up to $75k now and could rightly pull more.

BTW, you speak as though he has NO early speed. He has shown plenty. Sure, he was a tad further back in the Derby and Preakness compared to the Lewis and SA Derby, but how's that a penalty? Nobody held a complete lack of early speed against Tapit.

Assuming he is retired after this year, I have to believe the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years will stand for at least $75,000 in 2013. And most importantly, he would get really good mares. Never underestimate the allure of the Derby and Triple Crown. Many breeding decisions are influenced by those dreams. Many will figure: What better place to start than the horse who actually did it?

[Charismatic1]

As for Flower Alley, Elusive Quality was about $10-15k when Smarty Jones hit it big for him. Now, he is $50k, was up to $100k. Who's to say the same boost won't happen for Flower Alley? We know his fee will go up. Breeders will take another look at him, too.

I've never heard "he was a great two-turn horse up to 9 furlongs, must breed to him." Unless he wins a big one-turn mile race, that whole raw speed argument for Bodemeister is irrelevant. Breeders drool over champion milers and Classic winners (including BC Classic). If the horse has a flashy pedigree, they drool an even bigger mess. Despite the criticism, I do still think Bode can be a very good stallion. He'll have every opportunity. His speed may end up being a tiebreaker when breeders consider him versus five or six other comparably priced stallions, but that's the difference - I'll Have Another will be a group of 1 if he wins the Triple Crown.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

Assuming he is retired after this year, I have to believe the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years will stand for at least $75,000 in 2013. And most importantly, he would get really good mares. Never underestimate the allure of the Derby and Triple Crown. Many breeding decisions are influenced by those dreams. Many will figure: What better place to start than the horse who actually did it?

I'll Have Another has a career to finish, but in today's stallion market, I have a hard time seeing him above $50,000, even if he were to win the Belmont. He might be somehat comparable to a Big Brown (by Boundary, as opposed to a son of a top sire). Even Big Brown, however, was at an advertised (not actual) $60,000 fee, in a far more favorable bloodstock market.

Right now, the most accomplished and desirable first-year stallions are standing for about $35,000 (see Blame, Quality Road, Uncle Mo). Each of these three horses is by an accomplished, fashionable sire (Arch, Elusive Quality, Indian Charlie), not something you can say about Flower Alley. I also agree with the point made by others that the fact I'll Have Another was an $11,000 yearling and $35,000 2YO is something that will weigh on breeders' minds. Regardless of what price he starts at, he'll probably be standing in the $10,000 - $20,000 range by the time his first crop are 5YOs (if he wins the Triple Crown) and likely lower than that if he fails to win the Belmont.

It will be interesting to see what Three Chimneys does with Flower Alley. He'll probably be back up to $20-25,000 (where he started) for 2013, which is a huge stretch given his production to date, and back to $7,500 by 2016. Kind of like what happened to Our Emblem after War Emblem won the Derby and Preakness.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

Maybe when he's 5, sure. However, I have seen many horses with fashionable pedigrees and comparable attributes to the horses you mentioned also drop to $10,000 or less after a much higher freshman fee. Then, there are horses like lowly Cal-bred Tiznow, who didn't excel at 9 furlongs or less and known more for his grit than his talent. Many were surprised when he started at $30k or $35k, but he's up to $75k now and could rightly pull more.

BTW, you speak as though he has NO early speed. He has shown plenty. Sure, he was a tad further back in the Derby and Preakness compared to the Lewis and SA Derby, but how's that a penalty? Nobody held a complete lack of early speed against Tapit.

Assuming he is retired after this year, I have to believe the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years will stand for at least $75,000 in 2013. And most importantly, he would get really good mares. Never underestimate the allure of the Derby and Triple Crown. Many breeding decisions are influenced by those dreams. Many will figure: What better place to start than the horse who actually did it?

Tiznow, while a Calbred, was not lowly bred. His sire, to this day, was one of the most awesomely fast horses I've ever seen. I would probably put Cee's Tizzy in the top 10-20 most talented racehorses (on dirt) that I've ever seen.

His dam was pretty good too. In fact, the year before Tiznow won the BCC for the first time, his full brother was second in the BCC in what was one of the most unlikely BC wins I've ever seen, by Cat Thief. This same horse also beat a future Kentucky Derby winner early in his 3yo season.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

I think it could get up to $60-70 million if he wins the Triple Crown. A few farms will find that simply having the Triple Crown Messiah on their stallion roster is worth that bill.

When you add the inevitable interest from Japanese stallion stations, it's going to be hefty, because the Japanese don't view or value our pedigrees the same way. They go after American horses that can win big 10-furlong races: Roses in May, Silver Charm, Charismatic, War Emblem, and obviously Sunday Silence from two decades ago. (I may be forgetting a couple obvious studs.) They made a STRONG push for Tiznow as well. I do not think a Japanese farm will get I'll Have Another, but I mention their interest because it will drive the price tag up quite considerably.

I think the more interesting question is what his stud fee will be when he retires. Fees for freshmen have fluctuated so much in the last twelve years or so.

I dont think there is any chance that he gets to those numbers. $60 million for Fu Peg was crazy but you have to take into consideration that he was going to be a full time dual hemispehere stallion right from the start. I have a hard time believing that there will be much demand for IHA in Australia based on the pedigree.

Even if he were to get 150 mares a year at 75k for 3 years (which I dont think is extremely likely) still only brings in $33 million in stud fees.