Weird betting coup at Thistledown

[Indian Charlie]

It happening on a 1/5 shot that won by 16.5 lengths is highly suspicious.

This was a horse that could not lose without falling down.

[tector]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It happening on a 1/5 shot that won by 16.5 lengths is highly suspicious.

This was a horse that could not lose without falling down.

Another mere coincidence--you must disregard that fact. Please await facts from the offshore books, those will resolve the issue. Of course if those facts don't show up--is that even POSSIBLE?--then no conclusions of any kind can be drawn. Act as if nothing happened. And if happens again, that won't happen, either. In fact, it already didn't.

[pba1817]

Barney Curley?

[Calzone Lord]

This is very bizarre.

If it is a computer glitch -- it's an expensive one.

Very few people, if any, could get down for that much money with books at Thistle to make a profit out of that situation.

I know a guy who was leading owner year in and year out on the So. Cal circuit -- and I recall he told me he could beat Mountaineer for as much as $50,000 in a race with just one mysterious book. He was claiming horses like Repole of the West at one time though -- and I'm sure a book would only allow themselves to be slaughtered by him in a race at a small track because having him as a client was to their benefit.

It looks like computers though -- they're a menace with the way they move odds late. Bodemeister got crushed late by them in both the Ky Derby and Preakness this year. Sweetnorthernsaint got hammered to Ky Derby favortisim in the last mintue the one year. The Monarchos/Invisible Ink entry got creamed late in the Fla Derby. Many examples even into the teeth of massive sized win pools.

[hailrazer]

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....

Agreed. I'm sure there are details we are not privy to, but it seems likely that they had a wagering outlet that was not parimutuel based.

[Kasept]

More news, though no further clarity: http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-...-still-mystery

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Kasept

More news, though no further clarity: http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-...-still-mystery

The bets drove the odds on the favorite up to 14-1 before a robotic wagering program targeted the favorite with an $8,359 win bet placed just before the race went off.

That makes it sound like the robotic worked perfectly. In less than 90 seconds, the Bot made a $8,359 win bet to drive the winners price from 14-to-1 to 5-to-1.

[blackthroatedwind]

I know I'm not allowed to discuss this, else I will be yelled at by this thread's self-designated matron, but finding sites that will accept bets and pay in a situation like this is pretty much impossible. It is FAR more likely this was a computer glitch.

Cue thread matron.....

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I know I'm not allowed to discuss this, else I will be yelled at by this thread's self-designated matron, but finding sites that will accept bets and pay in a situation like this is pretty much impossible. It is FAR more likely this was a computer glitch.

Cue thread matron.....

I'm pretty shocked that people are arguing that point with you. The offshore world is beyond sketchy after Black Monday, and only three sites are worthwhile right now, all based in a country that has no affliation at all with the US. And those sites have like max win around 1k for a track like Thistly Downs. And even those sites are slow pay when you do win.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I know I'm not allowed to discuss this, else I will be yelled at by this thread's self-designated matron, but finding sites that will accept bets and pay in a situation like this is pretty much impossible. It is FAR more likely this was a computer glitch.

Cue thread matron.....

Computers don't usually just 'glitch' for no readily apparent reason.

That, taken with the extreme unlikeliness that this happened with a horse that won by 16.5 lengths defies what you are saying about it not being a betting coup.

Perhaps, if it was a coup, the people behind this had the ability to wager with good old fashioned bookies that would pay full track odds.

They still do exist, believe it or not. Or perhaps they had a way to wager at a site not in the USA? I know in Mexico, for instance, I used to be able to wager and get track odds, without being tied in.

Knowing something about how computers work, I'd say it's nearly impossible that the computer glitched itself in such a highly specific and detailed way.

Humans had to be involved, and I don't care about what sort of nonsensical spin that the officials are eventually going to throw our way as explanation.