DERBY/OAKS DAWN PATROL: (5/1) Valeski out, Optimizer in..

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's free to download and there's lots of great info in it. Daily updates, which are important because we had to have analysis turned in last Tuesday, start tomorrow. I'm very unhappy about the reports on El Padrino, but the picks were an attempt to send a message about how to approach the race. It's a near certainty that 4 of the top 6-7 choices or similarly obvious horses will NOT comprise the super. Horses like Sabercat, Done Talking, Liaison or Rousing Sermon rumble home 4th -- sometimes 3rd -- all the time in the Derby. It's a necessity to envision how those types get in the exotics because the Make Music for Mes (4th; 30-1), Imawildandcrazyguys (4th; 29-1), Denis of Corks (3rd; 27-1), Jazils (4th-DH; 24-1) or Don't Get Mads (4th; 29-1) are almost never part of people's suggested top finisers.

Here's what I wrote..

TIME RIGHT FOR 'ROMANS' DERBY CONQUEST
By Steve Byk
At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM)

ANALYSIS: A tumultuous run-up to the Triple Crown season has left the 2012 Derby with more uncertainty than usual as the BC Juvenile trifecta and winter book heavyweights HANSEN, UNION RAGS and CREATIVE CAUSE suffered armor-denting defeats en route to Kentucky. A host of emergent, well connected players including BODEMEISTER, GEMOLOGIST, I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, DADDY NOSE BEST, TAKE CHARGE INDY and DULLAHAN all arrive at the Downs with solid credentials, enthusiastic supporters and legitimate cases to wear the rose blanket.

MAIN CONTENDERS: Identifying the contenders is easy with the 9 above all capable. The question is how to approach the wagering once the post positions are drawn and you establish an anticipated pace scenario. The presence of fleet TRINNIBERG compromises a moderate early pace for HANSEN and/or BODEMEISTER with the prompting presence of I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, TAKE CHARGE INDY and GEMOLOGIST assuring a serious opening 6f. The second flight contenders led by UNION RAGS will be attacking in the final half mile and closers will get the opportunity to reach contention. With a meltdown highly possible, DULLAHAN, a half brother to 2009 Derby hero Mine That Bird from the team that finished 3rd with Paddy O'Prado in 2010, looms the choice to run by them all.

VALUE PLAYS: Since 2006, top Oaklawn prep finishers have compiled a record of 6/1-2-2-1 on First Saturday and rallying SABERCAT, whose sire Bluegrass Cat was 2nd to Barbaro at 30-1, can charge the exotics. EL PADRINO has the attractive 'post hype' look of a horse heralded in February and forgotten in April and trainer Todd Pletcher has authored 2 big tote Derby placements before with Bluegrass Cat and Invisible Ink. DONE TALKING and ROUSING SERMON are blueprints of the kind of runners that annually fill out the Derby superfecta at 40-1.

SELECTIONS:

1. DULLAHAN
2. EL PADRINO
3. SABERCAT
4. DONE TALKING

WAGERING STRATEGIES: ($100)

$1 Superfecta: DULLAHAN with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT, UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT, UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY with DONE TALKING, ROUSING SERMON ($60)

$4 Exacta: DULLAHAN with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT, UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY, GEMOLOGIST, I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, DADDY NOSE BEST, MARK VALESKI ($40)

Byk, can you explain why and how you like El Padrino (Pyro II)? I simply do not understand the love this horse gets.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Byk, can you explain why and how you like El Padrino (Pyro II)? I simply do not understand the love this horse gets.

Watch his allowance win in the mud at GP over Take Charge Indy.

[tanner12oz]

i think i recall seeing Dullahan's dosage being out of wack...might be wrong though...with you on sabrecat steve

[slotdirt]

I can't speak for Steve, but prior to the other day's work, I thought El Padrino fit the profile of a relative long shot who might get a piece (think Bluegrass Cat) coming off the worst performance of said horse's career. And "worst" performances in El Padrino's case is significantly different than what Pyro did in the Blue Grass back in 2008.

ETA - Pyro went off third choice back in 2008. Not really a comparison to El Padrino. IIRC, folks were just trying to find somebody - anybody - to beat the 2-1 favorite in that race.

[Indian Charlie]

Pyro ran in the BG over poly, not dirt.

Otherwise, they are very similar. Both beat very suspect competition, and did it unimpressively in pretty slow times.

I don't think he'll be a huge longshot either. He's sort of a hype horse, which will mean he gets overbet relative to his chances of winning.

And yeah, I watched his win over TCI. What am I looking for that explains his popularity and overhype?

Were you being facetious?

[slotdirt]

I understand that Pyro ran over poly, but he also utterly bombed. El Padrino's never had that kind of performance, regardless of the surface.

What do you consider longshot? 20-something-1? Because I think that's what you'll get on El Padrino. He'll certainly be much longer odds than Pyro's 5.7-1 back in 2008.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I understand that Pyro ran over poly, but he also utterly bombed. El Padrino's never had that kind of performance, regardless of the surface.

What do you consider longshot? 20-something-1? Because I think that's what you'll get on El Padrino. He'll certainly be much longer odds than Pyro's 5.7-1 back in 2008.

I doubt you'll see 20/1, and if it weren't for that awful performance in his last race, he'd have been one of the favorites.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Pyro ran in the BG over poly, not dirt.

Otherwise, they are very similar. Both beat very suspect competition, and did it unimpressively in pretty slow times.

I don't think he'll be a huge longshot either. He's sort of a hype horse, which will mean he gets overbet relative to his chances of winning.

And yeah, I watched his win over TCI. What am I looking for that explains his popularity and overhype?

Were you being facetious?

He's not really similar to Pyro at all.

Pyro was a very good 2YO who went into his 3YO season with a ton of fanfare. His two wins at FG to begin the year were wildly overrated because it seemed like he had been able to rally against negative pace setups when he was really just dominating slow horses.

El Padrino was a maiden winner who narrowly picked up a G2 placing as a 2YO. His pair of wins in the alw race and the Risen Star are more impressive than Pyro's pair of victories early in 2008. His wide trip off a very slow pace on a track that was kind to speed at GP is a better race than it looks on paper in my opinion.

I try not to read into his work too much because I wouldn't just about any other day of the year. But, he is going to be a longshot off a :53 and change drill at Palm Meadows, since there are so many workout darlings being raved about right now.

[slotdirt]

P.S. - not sure folks who are inquiring about Liaison can really knock those looking to take a stab with El Padrino...

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Byk, can you explain why and how you like El Padrino (Pyro II)? I simply do not understand the love this horse gets.

Cause as of right now he is #20 and 3 out of past 5 Derbies the #20 IN hit the board