Oaks and Derby Handicapping

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Sticking with Union Rags

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Sticking with Union Rags

Are you guys all confident he can get the distance? Im not really sure he can.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Sticking with Union Rags

even after his last? left me with some doubts.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Danzig

even after his last? left me with some doubts.

There are reasons to like and dislike Union Rags. The fact that he only has one rather easy victory against a weak field then the Florida Derby as a 3YO is a bit frustrating. The Fountain of Youth had a soft field, featured a distance-challenged Pletcher trainee who rode a dead rail, and it ended with him beating a total bum in News Pending.

Leparoux gave Union Rags no chance to win the Florida Derby. Somehow it has been forgotten that Union Rags won the Saratoga Special in wire-to-wire fashion last year. Leparoux rode him as if he is a one-paced plug who needs race dynamics to go his way. This came one race after he let him run a little bit early, and the result was a handy win.

Even if Leparoux did hurt Union Rags' chances, there wasn't enough about his Fla Derby effort to make you stay very confident in him. The latest round of preps certainly made the odds on contenders drop, and that will help Union Rags' odds. However, if you're betting him, you are hoping that he will be able to negotiate the traffic from behind a fast pace, because Leparoux will allow him to meander through the opening half-mile, as he does nearly every horse he rides.

[Perrault Robbed]

I forecast Bodemeister winning the Preakness and running 2nd to Princess Arabella in the Belmont.

Considering the odds I am hearing, he is the first horse I throw out of the Derby. In my opinion, Baffert is short a race with this horse. He let him roll in the Ark Derby because there was little pace and he needed money to get in the Derby. I think this field is much better than the ones which Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Big Brown were able to rate, pounce and win. The fact of the matter is the horse has never rated. He did look a lot more comfortable when the hood came off but he was on an easy lead. Twice he has been on loose leads and romped; twice he has had a horse in front of him and he lost. I think he will come out of the Derby a much better horse than going in. If he makes the lead and wins a la Winning Colors, War Emblem, Spend a Buck, then so be it, but I find that scenario highly, highly unlikely. I might throw him in a Pick 3 or a Pick 4 if he were 15-1 or so, but as a co-favorite or so, no thanks.

Obviously my comment on top reflects my opinion of the Oaks. IMHO, she is very,very, special. I think Baffert has been sitting with pocket aces since day one with this filly, and he has been blowing hard about Eden's Moon all spring to take attention away from this claasy miss.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Perrault Robbed

I forecast Bodemeister winning the Preakness and running 2nd to Princess Arabella in the Belmont.

Considering the odds I am hearing, he is the first horse I throw out of the Derby. In my opinion, Baffert is short a race with this horse. He let him roll in the Ark Derby because there was little pace and he needed money to get in the Derby. I think this field is much better than the ones which Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Big Brown were able to rate, pounce and win. The fact of the matter is the horse has never rated. He did look a lot more comfortable when the hood came off but he was on an easy lead. Twice he has been on loose leads and romped; twice he has had a horse in front of him and he lost. I think he will come out of the Derby a much better horse than going in. If he makes the lead and wins a la Winning Colors, War Emblem, Spend a Buck, then so be it, but I find that scenario highly, highly unlikely. I might throw him in a Pick 3 or a Pick 4 if he were 15-1 or so, but as a co-favorite or so, no thanks.

Obviously my comment on top reflects my opinion of the Oaks. IMHO, she is very,very, special. I think Baffert has been sitting with pocket aces since day one with this filly, and he has been blowing hard about Eden's Moon all spring to take attention away from this claasy miss.

Mamma Kimbo is no slouch.

[Perrault Robbed]

I must admit that the thing with Princess A was for me like some Luck moment when Nolte's horse was running down the lane to violin music; however, the music started playing in the post parade rather than during the race. She looked more like your typical Drysdale mare back in the day than a Baffert. Edens Moon looks like something Baffert would train. When Arabella stepped on the track, I just sat back (she was like 3-5) and said I want to see what this girl can do cause it could be spectacular. HRTV immediately went off over her, particularly Pincay, Jr., to all of America.

Now, I was within 3 feet of Mamma Kimbo in the paddock when she broke her maiden, and there was a reason she was 6-1 or so in the midst of Baffert's historic streak. She was not an overly impressive athlete. She did run a lightning fast time that day however, and her Fantasy win was extremely impressive. You are right; she is no slouch, but it is rich man/poor man come May 4th for me.

If I am correct, but I might be mistaken, Arabella's attempt is something of a figures versus eye test scenario. I am not sure her figures have been all that good her last couple of races; however, i think they were both just public workouts for her. What do you do with a public workout that is getting a race figure? Her gallop out in the 7f allowance win was tremendous.
If you look at the works going into that race, she was verey lightly worked going into that race. The Oaks in New Mexico was a joke. We will see. As we all know, sometimes you get knocked the ____ out.

[Indian Charlie]

Visually speaking, Arabella is no Phone Trick.

[pucknut]

alpha and bodiemeister my top two
subject to further health words on both