Oaks and Derby Handicapping

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I'll have a million thoughts in the next 18 days, but here goes....
Dullahan is likely my first toss of the ones who figure to take money (<10-1). I know he ran late past some tired horses in the BC, but I think that finish was phony. He was on the rail all the way and really looked to have a clean trip. Others backed up. His Keenland wins were really nice, but so were Dean's Kitten, Monba, Dominican, Brilliant Speed...whoever. He would have to work like Paddy or Animal Kingdom for me to consider him anywhere but the super.

Daddy Long Legs causes me to pause, and I"m a Scat Daddy fan, but I need more evidence that he will feel comfortable on dirt. If so, live at a price.

I think there's more in Bodemeister, but the pace scenario scares me.

Union Rags and Creative Cause are the two that I have seen move on the turn and finish. If Creative Cause will level off and finish straight, he's the one I'll go for.

I'm not auto tossing Hansen like everyone. I have my doubts he'll slow down, but when they headed him last year at the top of the stretch, he went on. If the bandwagon empties to 20-1 like the English books have him, I just have to include.

I prefer Alpha to Gemologist.

Take Charge Indy and I'll Have Another get looks.

Loved El Padrino before last, so have to keep an eye on and decide what to do. He'll be a huge price.



I like Grace Hall and wonder why the On Fire Baby seemed dead set on the Derby, then just decides to skip an April prep and train to the Oaks.

I thought Hansen ran great in the Bluegrass and clearly his BC win was big. I dont want to use 5 or 6 horses, but Hansen is right there if I went even 5 deep.

[knickslions2]

Going to be a fun race.Its much too early but so far i like these two Union Rags and Creative Cause.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Going to be a fun race.Its much too early but so far i like these two Union Rags and Creative Cause.

A month ago those were the chalks. Sticking with them might pay off.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

A month ago those were the chalks. Sticking with them might pay off.

Agree. Ill take 5-7/1 on either of them.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Agree. Ill take 5-7/1 on either of them.

I think 7-1 is low end on both. I think you can get 8-12-1ish.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

A month ago those were the chalks. Sticking with them might pay off.

Double the odds on him as a month ago, on both, and really my opinion of either didn't change much.

If Rags wins the Florida Derby, he would be 3-1, but you will get twice that. Creative Cause could have been the favorite if he had won, especially since the San Felipe win looks so much better after Bode's big win.