Oaks and Derby Handicapping

[Thunder Gulch]

I'll have a million thoughts in the next 18 days, but here goes....
Dullahan is likely my first toss of the ones who figure to take money (<10-1). I know he ran late past some tired horses in the BC, but I think that finish was phony. He was on the rail all the way and really looked to have a clean trip. Others backed up. His Keenland wins were really nice, but so were Dean's Kitten, Monba, Dominican, Brilliant Speed...whoever. He would have to work like Paddy or Animal Kingdom for me to consider him anywhere but the super.

Daddy Long Legs causes me to pause, and I"m a Scat Daddy fan, but I need more evidence that he will feel comfortable on dirt. If so, live at a price.

I think there's more in Bodemeister, but the pace scenario scares me.

Union Rags and Creative Cause are the two that I have seen move on the turn and finish. If Creative Cause will level off and finish straight, he's the one I'll go for.

I'm not auto tossing Hansen like everyone. I have my doubts he'll slow down, but when they headed him last year at the top of the stretch, he went on. If the bandwagon empties to 20-1 like the English books have him, I just have to include.

I prefer Alpha to Gemologist.

Take Charge Indy and I'll Have Another get looks.

Loved El Padrino before last, so have to keep an eye on and decide what to do. He'll be a huge price.



I like Grace Hall and wonder why the On Fire Baby seemed dead set on the Derby, then just decides to skip an April prep and train to the Oaks.