2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[pointman]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Does a story running an hour leading up the race on NBC really make any impact on the handle?

Anyone at the track or an OTB probably isn't watching and/or has already made up their minds on who to bet.

Anyone at home watching that would be swayed by that kind of story, probably doesn't have an AWD account or has already given their money/bet to someone at the track. I think it's irrelevant.

If I remember correctly, NBC runs these stories all day long. They also promote these stories running up to the Derby. Maybe I am wrong, but I have to believe that these stories they promote do have an impact on where stupid money is bet.

Let's face it, the Derby more than any race has people who bet money on it that have no knowledge of betting horses, most of whom would be better off taking a match to their money instead of going to the windows.

Hanson will take money from people who bet on the pretty horsey, Take Charge Indy will take money from people who blindly bet Borel in the Derby under the belief that he wins virtually every Derby, Bodemeister will take money because the horse is named after Baffert's son, Dullahan will have the people who now believe that the turf horse to Derby (i.e. Animal Kingdom) route is the new way to win, etc.

Maybe I see it a bit differntly since I live in Manhattan and OTB's (before they were closed) were just a walk down the street, but before ADW's, I would see people pouring in to bet the Derby all day long, most of whom would not be caught dead in an OTB other than the Derby. The closer it got to the race, the longer the lines would get to bet.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by pointman

If I remember correctly, NBC runs these stories all day long. They also promote these stories running up to the Derby. Maybe I am wrong, but I have to believe that these stories they promote do have an impact on where stupid money is bet.

Let's face it, the Derby more than any race has people who bet money on it that have no knowledge of betting horses, most of whom would be better off taking a match to their money instead of going to the windows.

Hanson will take money from people who bet on the pretty horsey, Take Charge Indy will take money from people who blindly bet Borel in the Derby under the belief that he wins virtually every Derby, Bodemeister will take money because the horse is named after Baffert's son, Dullahan will have the people who now believe that the turf horse to Derby (i.e. Animal Kingdom) route is the new way to win, etc.

Maybe I see it a bit differntly since I live in Manhattan and OTB's (before they were closed) were just a walk down the street, but before ADW's, I would see people pouring in to bet the Derby all day long, most of whom would not be caught dead in an OTB other than the Derby. The closer it got to the race, the longer the lines would get to bet.

Ya its the same every year

Hansen will take money since he won the Juvy,he is white and they will do 5 stories on Dr.Crazy. TCI will take the Borel money,Mark Valeski will take the Rosie cash ,Bodemeister cause of Bob and his son plus heart attack and then there is the Went The Day Well who will take cash cause of the AK angle.

Only 1 question? Who will be this year's Wise Guy Horse???

[cal828]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Ya its the same every year

Hansen will take money since he won the Juvy,he is white and they will do 5 stories on Dr.Crazy. TCI will take the Borel money,Mark Valeski will take the Rosie cash ,Bodemeister cause of Bob and his son plus heart attack and then there is the Went The Day Well who will take cash cause of the AK angle.

Only 1 question? Who will be this year's Wise Guy Horse???

Daddy Nose Best?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by cal828

Daddy Nose Best?

Agreed, unfortunately. I like him a lot.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by cal828

Daddy Nose Best?

Originally Posted by justindew

Agreed, unfortunately. I like him a lot.

His Sunland Derby will get discounted because of the insane speed duel but it was a fast race on figures and he finished-up strong. The big negative at this point is how the runner-up didn't exactly flatter in the Arkansas Derby.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

His Sunland Derby will get discounted because it's the Sunland Derby.

FTFY

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

His Sunland Derby will get discounted because of the insane speed duel but it was a fast race on figures and he finished-up strong. The big negative at this point is how the runner-up didn't exactly flatter in the Arkansas Derby.

Agreed. I had high hopes for Isn't he Clever last weekend, because I thought he ran a monster race at Sunland. If he somehow makes the Derby i'll stick with him on deep exotic tickets.

[tjfla]

#21 Isn't He Clever

However if

Stirred Up Wins the Jerome he is #21

Castaway Wins the Lexington,El Padrino is #21/2nd means he is #21

Morgan's Guerilla Wins the Lexington he is #21

News Pending Wins the Lexington he is #21

Also Hansen and Bodemeister just moved down on alot of lists

[justindew]

Originally Posted by tjfla

#21 Isn't He Clever

However if

Stirred Up Wins the Jerome he is #21

Castaway Wins the Lexington,El Padrino is #21/2nd means he is #21

Morgan's Guerilla Wins the Lexington he is #21

News Pending Wins the Lexington he is #21

Also Hansen and Bodemeister just moved down on alot of lists

What if Stirred Up and Castaway both win?

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by cal828

Daddy Nose Best?

Ya same here,which sucks cause was hoping he would be the BOMB(25/1 or so) on the exotics

[justindew]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Ya same here,which sucks cause was hoping he would be the BOMB(25/1 or so) on the exotics

I feel like the trend in recent years has been for the odds climbing on the favorites, and dropping on everyone else. That's why I'm seeing a post time favorite in the 7-1 range, with horses like Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino, and Mark Valeski landing in the 20-1 to 25-1 range. Although I have a bad feeling we'll see something in the teens for Daddy Nose Best.

[tjfla]

No clue how reliable this source is but looks like Rousing Sermon is IN

http://voices.idahostatesman.com/201...kentucky_derby

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by justindew

Although I have a bad feeling we'll see something in the teens for Daddy Nose Best.

The teens in this year's Derby could possibly be the 10th pick though.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by justindew

I feel like the trend in recent years has been for the odds climbing on the favorites, and dropping on everyone else. That's why I'm seeing a post time favorite in the 7-1 range, with horses like Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino, and Mark Valeski landing in the 20-1 to 25-1 range. Although I have a bad feeling we'll see something in the teens for Daddy Nose Best.

Can't really see the post time favorite being as high as 7-1 in a year in which there has really been only one blow out win. I don't think the first time or occasional bettors and probably a good segment of seasoned handicappers will be able to get past the 9 and half length win and the 108 beyer.