4/14 (KEE): Blue Grass, Wiley (G1's), Comm (G2), Shakertown (G3)

Keeneland is murderers row. Glad you got something out of it. I'm wisely on the sidelines. That place has ruined my bankroll for derby too many years.

[Conrad]

I am trying to beat Hansen too so maybe we have a little something going here.
I wanted to play Heavy Breathing but 33-1 on a Pletcher horse is a lil scary.
That means NO ONE is betting him...no one of importance that is.

Dullahan is a classic big day trap horse. Looks like Holy Candy got the ones who abandoned ship. Just looks too good to be true.

It's either Hansen or Ever So Lucky.

[Conrad]

Life hands me 3-1 on a sure looking winner but i don't want it.
No thanks

[Dahoss]

Hansen ran really well in defeat. He's so much better than I originally thought.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Hansen ran really well in defeat. He's so much better than I originally thought.

I agree that he's better now, but Mike Maker is just horrible with debuters. His horses typically run abysmal first-out and start developing rapidly 3rd or 4th time out...especially routing.

Look at Blue Grass 3rd place finisher Gung Ho. He was 3rd by 9 at Indiana Downs with a 25 Beyer in his debut. He broke his maiden 2nd time out at PID with a 49 Beyer.

I tried to justify Stately Victor as my Kentucky Derby pick by focusing only on his fairly good 2nd place finish on dirt in his 2yo debut at Saratoga in a race that was rained off-the-grass.

I've had horses come out of 2yo sales who I knew were lightening fast -- and they'd debut for Maker and get beat 15 lengths with no excuse. By the 4th start they're high quality alw or stakes horses.

I guess it's not as extreme as it once was with Maker stats wise ... but you really have to project so much future improvment with his runners. To be honest, I don't think he's ever had a horse who was near as strong on form as Hansen was after two races.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I agree that he's better now, but Mike Maker is just horrible with debuters. His horses typically run abysmal first-out and start developing rapidly 3rd or 4th time out...especially routing.

Look at Blue Grass 3rd place finisher Gung Ho. He was 3rd by 9 at Indiana Downs with a 25 Beyer in his debut. He broke his maiden 2nd time out at PID with a 49 Beyer.

I tried to justify Stately Victor as my Kentucky Derby pick by focusing only on his fairly good 2nd place finish on dirt in his 2yo debut at Saratoga in a race that was rained off-the-grass.

I've had horses come out of 2yo sales who I knew were lightening fast -- and they'd debut for Maker and get beat 15 lengths with no excuse. By the 4th start they're high quality alw or stakes horses.

I guess it's not as extreme as it once was with Maker stats wise ... but you really have to project so much future improvment with his runners. To be honest, I don't think he's ever had a horse who was near as strong on form as Hansen was after two races.

So you must think Morgan's Guerrilla is the 2nd coming

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Hansen ran really well in defeat. He's so much better than I originally thought.

Hansen was terrific....but considering the weight that Dullahan carried, he should have beaten him. Gung Ho, who a lot of people here were very smart about, also ran well. The others? Not so much.

The single best thing about the Blue Grass is that not a single no-shotter got lucky enough to earn a Derby Golden Ticket. The right two horses, who already had the earnings, ran 1-2.