Possible new handicaping show

[joeydb]

Great job Doug. I'd definitely watch and "youtube subscribe" to your channel.

I did have a couple of questions:

1) Do you find the presence of a speed duel to be reliably predictable before the race?

2) When you say efficiency in your analysis, do you mean from a Brohamer percent energy usage point of view, saving ground in the run, both, or neither?

I think your analysis has some real value and I'm just trying to see how I would use it in my own approach to the race, before it is run of course.

Again, awesome idea and great format. I love how you showed all the data you were referring to and formatted it for easy viewing, along with the run itself since I am not much of a trip handicapper on my own.

Joe

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by joeydb

Great job Doug. I'd definitely watch and "youtube subscribe" to your channel.

I did have a couple of questions:

1) Do you find the presence of a speed duel to be reliably predictable before the race?

2) When you say efficiency in your analysis, do you mean from a Brohamer percent energy usage point of view, saving ground in the run, both, or neither?

I think your analysis has some real value and I'm just trying to see how I would use it in my own approach to the race, before it is run of course.

Again, awesome idea and great format. I love how you showed all the data you were referring to and formatted it for easy viewing, along with the run itself since I am not much of a trip handicapper on my own.

Joe

Doug will have a much better answer for you... But do you follow Aqueduct? I have been betting Aqueduct almost daily and its getting really frustrating. On paper you have anywhere from 3-5 speeds, and 1 horse gets a soft lead. Its been going on all winter. So for question #1 I would say its almost impossible to predict it. What looks like a collapse on paper, a lot of times turns into a 1 speed number around the track.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Doug will have a much better answer for you... But do you follow Aqueduct? I have been betting Aqueduct almost daily and its getting really frustrating. On paper you have anywhere from 3-5 speeds, and 1 horse gets a soft lead. Its been going on all winter. So for question #1 I would say its almost impossible to predict it. What looks like a collapse on paper, a lot of times turns into a 1 speed number around the track.

No, I am a casual player - I am sporadic in my attendance and play, but I do keep as many records as I can. I tend to use numerical tools more than anything else, hoping I can "tune" them for better accuracy but at least they will be consistent.

I was wondering if it even possible to have a loose predictor of the speed duel - nothing is perfect of course.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

thread jack..

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

thread jack..

Question 1. Look at it, and tell me where I went off topic. I def. would like a response. Thanks.

Sometimes I want my fries fresh off the grill but then I get them and they're soggy.

[dagolfer33]

Doug, can you do a video showing us how to make a cake like that? Maybe add some some hawt half-naked chicks and call it "Cake Whores."

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by joeydb

No, I am a casual player - I am sporadic in my attendance and play, but I do keep as many records as I can. I tend to use numerical tools more than anything else, hoping I can "tune" them for better accuracy but at least they will be consistent.

I was wondering if it even possible to have a loose predictor of the speed duel - nothing is perfect of course.

On paper, its very easy to predict. But then when the gate opens, it does not always turn out that way. Thats what makes this game so challenging.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by joeydb

Great job Doug. I'd definitely watch and "youtube subscribe" to your channel.

I did have a couple of questions:

1) Do you find the presence of a speed duel to be reliably predictable before the race?

2) When you say efficiency in your analysis, do you mean from a Brohamer percent energy usage point of view, saving ground in the run, both, or neither?

I think your analysis has some real value and I'm just trying to see how I would use it in my own approach to the race, before it is run of course.

Again, awesome idea and great format. I love how you showed all the data you were referring to and formatted it for easy viewing, along with the run itself since I am not much of a trip handicapper on my own.

Joe

Question #1: There are situations where they are much more likely to occur -- but it shouldn't be something you can easily predict before a race for the simple fact that speed duels are so destructive and even the most incompetent of jockeys know this.

Question #2: Most every horse has a preferred running style. I judge how efficient they just ran in a race by looking at running styles and pace figures. I have read Brohamer's book, but I don't use his style of pace analysis.

* For a front-running horse ... the most efficent race they can run comes when they're on an uncontested early lead while running a pace figure that is within their typical range of comfort and they're not being hard-rated by the jockey. A lot of jockeys can screw-up when they get loose early by trying to rate too much.

* For a speed horse who doesn't have to be a front-runner ... the most efficent race is either the one described above or a clear stalking trip about 3/4 of a length to a 1 1/2 lengths off of an inferior pace setter.

* For a mid-pack type horse ... the most efficent possible race they can run is when speed horses are hooked up in-front of them and setting a strong pace - meanwhile they're gapped back in a clear and isolated position with no one else less than 2 lengths behind them. This trip will ensure a peak result and an absolute max speed figure.

* For a deep closing horse ... the most efficent possible race is obviously when a fast and hotly contested early pace is happening up front. That's all a deep closer can ask for. It will even help the deep closers cause a lot more if there is no mid-pack runner gapped in a clear and isolated position.

Those are the most efficent trips that lead to peak performances and peak speed figures. An efficent trip is just a clear trip in a race where the pace dynamics didn't work against the runner.

If you can identify a legit track bias ... horses who run races with a most efficent trip and are aided by a path or speed bias at the same time ... they make sensational bet againsts. Betfair tip #1.