secret circle

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I must have watched a different race than you guys.

He might be able to beat a couple of 5 horse fields, but I think he'll be exposed as the distances get farther. He was already exposed at a mile. He had an extremely soft trip, never really got clear of Longview Drive and got run down late.

Nice sprinter/miler. I'll be shocked of he is a factor as the distances increase.

I'm with you.

[Calzone Lord]

The blinkers worked on Longview Drive. He showed a dramatic improvement in tactical speed and it allowed him an uncontested lead. The Beyer came back a 99. I guess I could examine it to see if it was a completely rubbish figure... but show me who else has run that fast in a two-turn route? Horses are winning Graded Stakes with mid 80's.

Assuming the figure can be trusted -- I don't care much what Longview Drive's prior form looked like. He ran the race he ran.

Secret Circle's style wins Derby preps. Horses stretching out off of Fast early-Slow Late 6f races and get rated off the lead in two-turn routes never run to peak. I think he's good enough to win a big prep or two if he stays sound and all.

I think Hoss's analysis would have been perfect if the race didn't come back as fast as it did. Where are the other fast races to this point?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I think Hoss's analysis would have been perfect if the race didn't come back as fast as it did. Where are the other fast races to this point?

I can't argue with this part. The figure at least makes it a little murky.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can't argue with this part. The figure at least makes it a little murky.

It's too early for this sort of stuff anyway. I think you lead the charge against Hansen after his first two races and came back around to bet him in his 3rd start without a single start in between.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's too early for this sort of stuff anyway. I think you lead the charge against Hansen after his first two races and came back around to bet him in his 3rd start without a single start in between.

They named the right rider.

I agree that races need to be handicapped when they are drawn. However, I would book any and all action on Secret Circle for the KY Derby.

[NTamm1215]

I thought one of the more interesting things that went somewhat unnoticed (with the exception of Mike Watchmaker calling attention to it) is that Sheikh Mohammed finally changing his approach to the Kentucky Derby could lead to him having the best candidates for the race yet. Alpha's race was hardly fast Beyer-wise but I thought he ran OK and will likely move forward.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I thought one of the more interesting things that went somewhat unnoticed (with the exception of Mike Watchmaker calling attention to it) is that Sheikh Mohammed finally changing his approach to the Kentucky Derby could lead to him having the best candidates for the race yet. Alpha's race was hardly fast Beyer-wise but I thought he ran OK and will likely move forward.

Yeah, I read they are keeping Alpha here this Winter.

That could indicate other things as well though.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I think Hoss's analysis would have been perfect if the race didn't come back as fast as it did. Where are the other fast races to this point?

I can't really disagree with this either. Not a lot of fast races to this point.

What did you think of Isn't He Clever? I don't know how far he'll stretch but he looked pretty good last time.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What did you think of Isn't He Clever? I don't know how far he'll stretch but he looked pretty good last time.

I had to look that one up. Never even heard of the horse and I'm fooling around with 8 tracks.

Smarty Jones 2yo gelding, wins at Zia and Sunland, nice win last. I don't know much about his competiton.

There's not much out there in this division that I can see at the major circuits.

I liked Fed Biz's maiden win. he got in an early duel with a horse who stopped to a walk -- and two more solid types for the So. Cal MSW level made moves at him which he shrugged off.

In terms of more obscure horses who still are maidens...

There's a money-burning hanger at the Fairgrounds named Sir Bond who's run two seconds and a third in three career starts. He's like an 80 Beyer horse.

This horse had the unblinkered bullet 1/8th at Keeneland April and has tremendous early speed. He's by Street Sense out of a mare who produced multiple Graded Stakes winning front-end speed-router Wiesman's Ferry.

He's had the great misfortune of being trained by Neil Howard. He's been grabbed and rated way back in all 3 career starts. Howard has him going 50 and change in routes -- and he keeps making these sweeping far turn moves and hanging badly in the stretch late.

It's been comedy to watch that horse ... but you at least know what you're getting with Howard. If he trained Caller One he'd try to make him into a slow breaking, deep closing, classic distance horse. At some point, hopefully before his 20th career start, Howard will allow him to run.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I had to look that one up. Never even heard of the horse and I'm fooling around with 8 tracks.

Smarty Jones 2yo gelding, wins at Zia and Sunland, nice win last. I don't know much about his competiton.

There's not much out there in this division that I can see at the major circuits.

I liked Fed Biz's maiden win. he got in an early duel with a horse who stopped to a walk -- and two more solid types for the So. Cal MSW level made moves at him which he shrugged off.

In terms of more obscure horses who still are maidens...

There's a money-burning hanger at the Fairgrounds named Sir Bond who's run two seconds and a third in three career starts. He's like an 80 Beyer horse.

This horse had the unblinkered bullet 1/8th at Keeneland April and has tremendous early speed. He's by Street Sense out of a mare who produced multiple Graded Stakes winning front-end speed-router Wiesman's Ferry.

He's had the great misfortune of being trained by Neil Howard. He's been grabbed and rated way back in all 3 career starts. Howard has him going 50 and change in routes -- and he keeps making these sweeping far turn moves and hanging badly in the stretch late.

It's been comedy to watch that horse ... but you at least know what you're getting with Howard. If he trained Caller One he'd try to make him into a slow breaking, deep closing, classic distance horse. At some point, hopefully before his 20th career start, Howard will allow him to run.

I would have loved to seen what horses like Mambo in Seattle, Grasshopper and, Brilliant would have down with one of today's super trainers.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I would have loved to seen what horses like Mambo in Seattle, Grasshopper and, Brilliant would have down with one of today's super trainers.

Howard did a great job with Mineshaft -- but he came from Europe to start with and didn't do much here for Howard until he exploded with first-time lasix and subsquently ran all outstanding races.

He's the anti-Baffert in terms of training.

[RockHardTen1985]

Back to Secret Circle. First stretch out, and the race came back fast enough. Ill give him one more shot. Its very likely he wires whatever race he shows up in next.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The blinkers worked on Longview Drive. He showed a dramatic improvement in tactical speed and it allowed him an uncontested lead. The Beyer came back a 99. I guess I could examine it to see if it was a completely rubbish figure... but show me who else has run that fast in a two-turn route? Horses are winning Graded Stakes with mid 80's.

Assuming the figure can be trusted -- I don't care much what Longview Drive's prior form looked like. He ran the race he ran.

Secret Circle's style wins Derby preps. Horses stretching out off of Fast early-Slow Late 6f races and get rated off the lead in two-turn routes never run to peak. I think he's good enough to win a big prep or two if he stays sound and all.

I think Hoss's analysis would have been perfect if the race didn't come back as fast as it did. Where are the other fast races to this point?

Baffert is smart and will run him in the same Derby preps as he ran The Factor.
Which means he will keep him on very speed favoring tracks like SA and Oaklawn.