12/26 (SA): Malibu (G1), Sir Beaufort (G3), Cal Breeders (M/F)

[RockHardTen1985]

This race is great, lots of things going on.
Horse I dont want any part of at all-

Associate. He will be bet a little Dutrow/Ramon to blow out wins. Tons of speed in here and he has beat nothing at all. He can beat me everyday in a spot like this.
The Factor. One of my favorites, but he feels like hes over the top. His last 2 leave a lot to be desired. Ill be hoping he runs well, but I wont have $1 on him. Wont even cover in multis.
Wine Police. Hes Ok, so are the 2 above but not in this spot and not for me. He never really moved forward this year off his 2yr old debut. He can beat me.
Racing Aptitude. Ran really well last time, but I highly doubt he can repeat that race vs a group like this. Hard for me to toss Baffert, but thats 2 now.
Light Up The Score. Not that this one will really be bet, but it is Steve A. Hes just not good enough, I doubt anyone will argue that.

Horses I like-

Rothko. Getting better with every race. I dont love him, but Ill cover him in my multis with 2 other horses. This guy has to be a price in this spot.
Smash. Obvious issues with this guy. He was supposed to be a Derby horse last year and was then off till May. First time since May he is pairing up races, second time in his brief career. If hes right, and you have to assume he is they wont beat him.
Hoorayforhollywood. Love everything about him, except the 2 short price seconds. The cutback works, has speed but has proven he can sit and win.
Those are the 3 Im using. Dont really get the Ellis horse at all, wont be using him.

[Dahoss]

What don't you get about the Ellis horse aside from not being trained by Baffert?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What don't you get about the Ellis horse aside from not being trained by Baffert?

We both know it has nothing to do with Baffert. I dont like The Factor and he was my favorite 2yr old last year. For starters Smash already beat him, why is he going to improve and be better then Smash on Monday?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

We both know it has nothing to do with Baffert. I dont like The Factor and he was my favorite 2yr old last year. For starters Smash already beat him, why is he going to improve and be better then Smash on Monday?

It's a bit more complicated then you are making it. Smash beat him a half length after looking like he was going to win by open lengths at the top of the stretch. To me, it seems like he is a horse heading in the right direction. His lone dirt start was a sharp effort and I have a lot more confidence in him running his race compared to Smash who is being kept together with scotch tape.

Again, what's not to get?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's a bit more complicated then you are making it. Smash beat him a half length after looking like he was going to win by open lengths at the top of the stretch. To me, it seems like he is a horse heading in the right direction. His lone dirt start was a sharp effort and I have a lot more confidence in him running his race compared to Smash who is being kept together with scotch tape.

Again, what's not to get?

He will have to improve 10 beyer points off his lone dirt effort. I dont like the horse at all. This entire field with the exception of maybe The Factor feels like they are heading the right way, and even he has a chance to win.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

He will have to improve 10 beyer points off his lone dirt effort.

So would Smash, Rothko and Hoorayforhollywood.