Holiday Wknd Stakes Beyers: Honor/Serve 104; Wise Dan 105

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Betsy

The BSF for THAS seems rather low given that he ran 1:33 and change on a track that was hardly blazing; he got a 105 for the PA Derby on a track that, while earlier in the card was not fast, did quicken up later on.

It seemed perfectly in line intellectually if you look at the only other mile race on the card, the 5th, at 2YO maiden race. That race went 2 4/5 slower, or approximately 30 Beyer points at one mile, and given the talent of those 2YOs, 106 seems more than reasonable.

Aside from that, what makes you think his win yesterday was substantially better than his effort in the PA Derby?

[blackthroatedwind]

Suddenly On Fire Baby looks particularly mediocre.

I watched most of Churchill yesterday and what I saw made it seem like the rail was very strong.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It seemed perfectly in line intellectually if you look at the only other mile race on the card, the 5th, at 2YO maiden race. That race went 2 4/5 slower, or approximately 30 Beyer points at one mile, and given the talent of those 2YOs, 106 seems more than reasonable.

Aside from that, what makes you think his win yesterday was substantially better than his effort in the PA Derby?

I actually thought he ran a big race in the PA Derby, but a track record (at a sprint) had been set the race before. 1:33 and change is just extremely fast, but aside from the time, he did beat older horses (even though the field wasn't that great). I don't like being fixated on BSF because I don't think they capture everything about a race, but I always end up fixated anyway. I can see now how a 106 is fair - and not that it's anything to complain about, which I did. I'm also still on a high. This race was one of the most satisfying wins I've had as a fan and I'm just happy he got a grade 1, which I hope is the first of several.

I agree also that he probably shouldn't be on the ballot for 3 year old of the year because he didn't run much of the year - the best part of his season was compressed into 2 months. That's fine - I expect him to be a very good older horse and just getting him back to even better than he was before was an accomplishment.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I actually thought he ran a big race in the PA Derby, but a track record (at a sprint) had been set the race before. 1:33 and change is just extremely fast, but aside from the time, he did beat older horses (even though the field wasn't that great). I don't like being fixated on BSF because I don't think they capture everything about a race, but I always end up fixated anyway. I can see now how a 106 is fair - and not that it's anything to complain about, which I did. I'm also still on a high. This race was one of the most satisfying wins I've had as a fan and I'm just happy he got a grade 1, which I hope is the first of several.

I agree also that he probably shouldn't be on the ballot for 3 year old of the year because he didn't run much of the year - the best part of his season was compressed into 2 months. That's fine - I expect him to be a very good older horse and just getting him back to even better than he was before was an accomplishment.

I might be as big a fan of his as you are, but he still feels like he will crumble if things dont go his way. Very easy trip yesterday.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I might be as big a fan of his as you are, but he still feels like he will crumble if things dont go his way. Very easy trip yesterday.

His trips are not flukish - he has speed and is tractable, so he often makes his trips. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens when he's looked in the eye at this point - I'm not going to bother speculating as there's really no point.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I might be as big a fan of his as you are, but he still feels like he will crumble if things dont go his way. Very easy trip yesterday.

I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.

No way Webber ships to Dubai unless they buy out the soup company

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.

The plan Mott laid out in the DRF is to run him in the GP Handicap in March then the Met Mile. He alluded to how the horse was a bit rushed to get back in February this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's not seen until the Westchester at Belmont.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The plan Mott laid out in the DRF is to run him in the GP Handicap in March then the Met Mile. He alluded to how the horse was a bit rushed to get back in February this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's not seen until the Westchester at Belmont.

It also mentioned his main objective was the Met Mile (May 28th) followed by running in races like the Stephen Foster (June 16th.)
I would bet a lung he doesn't get wheeled back in three weeks, if he runs well in the Met.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

It also mentioned his main objective was the Met Mile (May 28th) followed by running in races like the Stephen Foster (June 16th.)
I would bet a lung he doesn't get wheeled back in three weeks, if he runs well in the Met.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

It also mentioned his main objective was the Met Mile (May 28th) followed by running in races like the Stephen Foster (June 16th.)
I would bet a lung he doesn't get wheeled back in three weeks, if he runs well in the Met.

No one really goes Met-Foster, right? I would think prep somewhere, Met, Whitney, maybe Woodward then JCGC, BCC. 5 or 6 race campaign max.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think his efforts at Gulfstream can be ignored, as you can make a case that the injury that laid him up for a few months was affecting his winter performances.

The worry with this colt at the moment is distance. I thought he ran his race in the BC, stalking and pouncing, before ultimately wilting in the stretch. His PA Derby wasn't particularly pretty the final furlong either, switching leads and having his lead cut in half by Ruler On Ice when it looked like he'd win by a pole at the head of the lane.

It'll be interesting to see if he's given a rest and comes back targeting the Met Mile or keeps on rolling through Gulfstream. The Donn early in the year seems logical, but there's no real place to go after that, unless he wants to blow his wad in Dubai.

He was on the wrong lead in the PA Derby, something that concerned me going into the Classic. Ruler on Ice made up ground, but the final margin was deceiving as it looked because To Honor and Serve was on his wrong lead. Grening of DRF said that he also went onto his wrong lead in that race. I'm not concerned yet about the distance as one race (he has won 3 at 1 1/8 ) where he faded, but not terribly (not like he finished in the back of the pack) is not sufficient for me to judge whether he can or can not get the 1 1/4. Until Fall at Belmont, it won't matter anyway.

[hockey2315]

To Honor and Serve was switching in leads in the PA Derby because he was reacting to the whip.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

To Honor and Serve was switching in leads in the PA Derby because he was reacting to the whip.

Yeah, you're right, I just watched the video again. He blew the race apart on the turn, opened up an easy lead and then.......presto chango.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Betsy

He was on the wrong lead in the PA Derby, something that concerned me going into the Classic. Ruler on Ice made up ground, but the final margin was deceiving as it looked because To Honor and Serve was on his wrong lead. Grening of DRF said that he also went onto his wrong lead in that race. I'm not concerned yet about the distance as one race (he has won 3 at 1 1/8 ) where he faded, but not terribly (not like he finished in the back of the pack) is not sufficient for me to judge whether he can or can not get the 1 1/4. Until Fall at Belmont, it won't matter anyway.

Being on the wrong lead is not an excuse, it's a bad sign, Alydar being the popular exception (although he simply never switched to his right lead IIRC). In a horse with as many starts as To Honor And Serve, it usually signifies stamina or--worse yet--soundness concerns.

He also swapped back to his left lead in the BC Classic.

Good point, though, about 10f not really mattering anymore. It's a shame the Suburban is only 9f and that the Pimlico Special is once again no more. Mott doesn't shy from shipping west, so the Big Cap and Hollywood Gold Cup are technically still on the table, however unlikely.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Being on the wrong lead is not an excuse, it's a bad sign, Alydar being the popular exception (although he simply never switched to his right lead IIRC). In a horse with as many starts as To Honor And Serve, it usually signifies stamina or--worse yet--soundness concerns.

He also swapped back to his left lead in the BC Classic.

Good point, though, about 10f not really mattering anymore. It's a shame the Suburban is only 9f and that the Pimlico Special is once again no more. Mott doesn't shy from shipping west, so the Big Cap and Hollywood Gold Cup are technically still on the table, however unlikely.

If he's still doing it next year, then it will be a problem, but it just seems to me a sign of greenness or mental immaturity. The real problem with being on the wrong lead is that it's hard to get away with against really good horses. He didn't do it in the allowance race at the Spa; he may be a horse that needs to be ridden even with a sizeable lead. His best races, except Saturday's, have come at 1 1/8, so I really think he's fine at the distance. I also don't think he's unsound - in fact, per Mott, he gained weight after the Classic so he's thriving. If it turns out he can't quite go 1 1/4, it's not that big a deal - if he's good, he's good.