Question - Zito and Commentator

He was laboring a little down the stretch in his last work.

I'm tossing him. You guys might want to bet him for the win now.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He was laboring a little down the stretch in his last work.

I'm tossing him. You guys might want to bet him for the win now.

Believe me, it's hard to make a strong case for him winning, but I feel like I want to have him somewhere in multi-race bets. He has the distinct feel of an all-or-nothing horse as he could win but somehow doesn't feel like he will run second or third.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Believe me, it's hard to make a strong case for him winning, but I feel like I want to have him somewhere in multi-race bets. He has the distinct feel of an all-or-nothing horse as he could win but somehow doesn't feel like he will run second or third.

I get the same impression about him. If he shows up (as in actually doesn't stumble out of the gate and runs back to his top number), he could actually win this thing. If he doesn't win, and say a horse goes up to him like Henny Hughes, I see him folding.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Believe me, it's hard to make a strong case for him winning, but I feel like I want to have him somewhere in multi-race bets. He has the distinct feel of an all-or-nothing horse as he could win but somehow doesn't feel like he will run second or third.

I like him and Pomeroy for my exotics--might play a w/p on Pomeroy as well.

[Bogey]

Dubai Escapade will only run if something happens to Henny Hughes, otherwise she will skip the race. It's kind of a back up plan a la Discreet Cat with Bernardini.

If Commentator breaks well it could be similar to Artax's effort in the '99 Sprint. The break was the only concern with Artax as well. At nice odds, he's definitely worth a play and inclusion in all multi race wagers.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Dubai Escapade will only run if something happens to Henny Hughes, otherwise she will skip the race. It's kind of a back up plan a la Discreet Cat with Bernardini.

If Commentator breaks well it could be similar to Artax's effort in the '99 Sprint. The break was the only concern with Artax as well. At nice odds, he's definitely worth a play and inclusion in all multi race wagers.

U say that the break was the only concern with Artex as well. That's not the concern for Commentator, as far as I'm concerned. He can break better than anyone but the question is whether or not he has the necessary speed once he breaks. I'm guessing he doesn't.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U say that the break was the only concern with Artex as well. That's not the concern for Commentator, as far as I'm concerned. He can break better than anyone but the question is whether or not he has the necessary speed once he breaks. I'm guessing he doesn't.

That's why they run the races, we'll find out.

[cakes44]

Commentator is a need-the-lead horse who has absolutely no chance of having the lead at the first call due to Bordonaro and Attila's Storm. Toss.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U say that the break was the only concern with Artex as well. That's not the concern for Commentator, as far as I'm concerned. He can break better than anyone but the question is whether or not he has the necessary speed once he breaks. I'm guessing he doesn't.

KG he's got as good of pace numbers as Atilla's or Henny. Bordanaro, I don't know, he's likely the speed of the speed. So if it broke "exactly" the way i expect can he sit comfortably 2nd? big if.

PS i owe you that thing still. all boxed up, just gotta get to the post office.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He was laboring a little down the stretch in his last work.

I'm tossing him. You guys might want to bet him for the win now.

Did you watch his last work? He worked 4F in :47 and he finished up really well. He started off sort of sluggish which I expect is by design, but he finished strong IMO.

Anyway, it will be hard to bet him but at 15-1 like BTW stated it is hard to pass up. Kellys Landing has already been tagged as the wise guy horse. Great....just great. Oh well....

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Did you watch his last work? He worked 4F in :47 and he finished up really well. He started off sort of sluggish which I expect is by design, but he finished strong IMO.

Anyway, it will be hard to bet him but at 15-1 like BTW stated it is hard to pass up. Kellys Landing has already been tagged as the wise guy horse. Great....just great. Oh well....

Yes I did. I thought he started out fast and started to struggle in deep stretch. That's probably what he'll do in the Sprint.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Yes I did. I thought he started out fast and started to struggle in deep stretch. That's probably what he'll do in the Sprint.

Well according to the fractions, he went slower first and finished up quicker. And he galloped out really really well. Look at the hands of the rider--just a little encouragment by RB.

[King Glorious]

I think that if u go by final times and figures, yes, Commentator does fit. But then so does Dubai Escapade. Both have run some really huge races in the 6.5-7f area. But can either of them do it without the lead? Whether or not the stumble was the cause of his bad race last time, and taking into account that some of the races he had an easy lead and didn't HAVE to go faster, the fact is that Commentator has NEVER run a sub-22 second opening quarter mile and he's going to have to run in the area of 21 2/5 or faster to have the lead here. Otherwise, he's going to have to show that he can win without the lead and I think that if u are going to bet on him, u better hope that the last race wasn't an indication of how he'll do without the lead. Personally, I don't see him doing it here. For the same reason, I am discounting Dubai Escapade's chances, although she at least does show two sub-22 second opening quarters. Once, she had the lead and won. The other time, she didn't and lost. Again, both of these horses fit if u go by final times and figures but if u go by the way the race figures to be run, I don't think either fit.

[Travis Stone]

I'm with Glorious on this. I don't see Commentator winning. But the talk here has given me enough reasoning to put $2 to win on the horse just in case. I think he gets cooked, and the lack of seasoning will not help either. Furthermore, he needs a clear lead and he'll have to run the fastest he's ever run to do that. I don't see that happening.

I agree as well. I think it is safe to assume that Bornordaro is going to get the lead. A horse I havent heard too much about is Simor Lure. I heard is worked sucked but I think the horse isnt all that bad. It is still hard to pick anyone other than HH, but I keep going back to the Housebuster debacle.