Question - Zito and Commentator

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Bystander

Commentator is the only one of those three Zito horses who has run or had success at CD before, winning an allowance there in 04 (discounting Sun King's Derby.) Not saying others' reasoning is-ugh- unsound, but that may be why...

This makes a lot of sense. Look any horse, such as Commentator, who didn't debut until August of his 3YO year, and has since made 11 starts in 27 months clearly has issues. I would guess it is some combination of what most people have surmised in this thread.

I'll say this about Commentator, and obviously I am biased and will be rooting for him for personal reasons, while he is hard to bet in this race, and trouble at the start or not last time, his ability to rate is dramatically in question, he has a couple of races under his belt that would blow this field apart. Do I honestly think he will win? Not really. However, at the 15-1ish he will be, I think it is fair to say he is one horse in this race who's actual chances of winning exceed his odds. He is very much the forgotten horse.

He was laboring a little down the stretch in his last work.

I'm tossing him. You guys might want to bet him for the win now.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He was laboring a little down the stretch in his last work.

I'm tossing him. You guys might want to bet him for the win now.

Believe me, it's hard to make a strong case for him winning, but I feel like I want to have him somewhere in multi-race bets. He has the distinct feel of an all-or-nothing horse as he could win but somehow doesn't feel like he will run second or third.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Believe me, it's hard to make a strong case for him winning, but I feel like I want to have him somewhere in multi-race bets. He has the distinct feel of an all-or-nothing horse as he could win but somehow doesn't feel like he will run second or third.

I get the same impression about him. If he shows up (as in actually doesn't stumble out of the gate and runs back to his top number), he could actually win this thing. If he doesn't win, and say a horse goes up to him like Henny Hughes, I see him folding.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Believe me, it's hard to make a strong case for him winning, but I feel like I want to have him somewhere in multi-race bets. He has the distinct feel of an all-or-nothing horse as he could win but somehow doesn't feel like he will run second or third.

I like him and Pomeroy for my exotics--might play a w/p on Pomeroy as well.

[Bogey]

Dubai Escapade will only run if something happens to Henny Hughes, otherwise she will skip the race. It's kind of a back up plan a la Discreet Cat with Bernardini.

If Commentator breaks well it could be similar to Artax's effort in the '99 Sprint. The break was the only concern with Artax as well. At nice odds, he's definitely worth a play and inclusion in all multi race wagers.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Dubai Escapade will only run if something happens to Henny Hughes, otherwise she will skip the race. It's kind of a back up plan a la Discreet Cat with Bernardini.

If Commentator breaks well it could be similar to Artax's effort in the '99 Sprint. The break was the only concern with Artax as well. At nice odds, he's definitely worth a play and inclusion in all multi race wagers.

U say that the break was the only concern with Artex as well. That's not the concern for Commentator, as far as I'm concerned. He can break better than anyone but the question is whether or not he has the necessary speed once he breaks. I'm guessing he doesn't.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U say that the break was the only concern with Artex as well. That's not the concern for Commentator, as far as I'm concerned. He can break better than anyone but the question is whether or not he has the necessary speed once he breaks. I'm guessing he doesn't.

That's why they run the races, we'll find out.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U say that the break was the only concern with Artex as well. That's not the concern for Commentator, as far as I'm concerned. He can break better than anyone but the question is whether or not he has the necessary speed once he breaks. I'm guessing he doesn't.

KG he's got as good of pace numbers as Atilla's or Henny. Bordanaro, I don't know, he's likely the speed of the speed. So if it broke "exactly" the way i expect can he sit comfortably 2nd? big if.

PS i owe you that thing still. all boxed up, just gotta get to the post office.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He was laboring a little down the stretch in his last work.

I'm tossing him. You guys might want to bet him for the win now.

Did you watch his last work? He worked 4F in :47 and he finished up really well. He started off sort of sluggish which I expect is by design, but he finished strong IMO.

Anyway, it will be hard to bet him but at 15-1 like BTW stated it is hard to pass up. Kellys Landing has already been tagged as the wise guy horse. Great....just great. Oh well....

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Did you watch his last work? He worked 4F in :47 and he finished up really well. He started off sort of sluggish which I expect is by design, but he finished strong IMO.

Anyway, it will be hard to bet him but at 15-1 like BTW stated it is hard to pass up. Kellys Landing has already been tagged as the wise guy horse. Great....just great. Oh well....

Yes I did. I thought he started out fast and started to struggle in deep stretch. That's probably what he'll do in the Sprint.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Yes I did. I thought he started out fast and started to struggle in deep stretch. That's probably what he'll do in the Sprint.

Well according to the fractions, he went slower first and finished up quicker. And he galloped out really really well. Look at the hands of the rider--just a little encouragment by RB.

[King Glorious]

I think that if u go by final times and figures, yes, Commentator does fit. But then so does Dubai Escapade. Both have run some really huge races in the 6.5-7f area. But can either of them do it without the lead? Whether or not the stumble was the cause of his bad race last time, and taking into account that some of the races he had an easy lead and didn't HAVE to go faster, the fact is that Commentator has NEVER run a sub-22 second opening quarter mile and he's going to have to run in the area of 21 2/5 or faster to have the lead here. Otherwise, he's going to have to show that he can win without the lead and I think that if u are going to bet on him, u better hope that the last race wasn't an indication of how he'll do without the lead. Personally, I don't see him doing it here. For the same reason, I am discounting Dubai Escapade's chances, although she at least does show two sub-22 second opening quarters. Once, she had the lead and won. The other time, she didn't and lost. Again, both of these horses fit if u go by final times and figures but if u go by the way the race figures to be run, I don't think either fit.

[Travis Stone]

I'm with Glorious on this. I don't see Commentator winning. But the talk here has given me enough reasoning to put $2 to win on the horse just in case. I think he gets cooked, and the lack of seasoning will not help either. Furthermore, he needs a clear lead and he'll have to run the fastest he's ever run to do that. I don't see that happening.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This makes a lot of sense. Look any horse, such as Commentator, who didn't debut until August of his 3YO year, and has since made 11 starts in 27 months clearly has issues. I would guess it is some combination of what most people have surmised in this thread.

I'll say this about Commentator, and obviously I am biased and will be rooting for him for personal reasons, while he is hard to bet in this race, and trouble at the start or not last time, his ability to rate is dramatically in question, he has a couple of races under his belt that would blow this field apart. Do I honestly think he will win? Not really. However, at the 15-1ish he will be, I think it is fair to say he is one horse in this race who's actual chances of winning exceed his odds. He is very much the forgotten horse.

I've been a huge fan of Commentator for a couple reasons, one being he's probably the most talented NYB of all time, two Farmer is one of the easiest owners to root for out there. That being said, he's got a couple things working against him that as much as I want him to be a key play on the day scare me off: (1) if he misses the break at ALL, he seems to lack interest, and that's no easy task in the world's fastest race, and (2) no wins at 6F, which is a virtual necessity in the Sprint. Not a chance I leave him off multiple race tickets, however- 20-1 is too valuable for perhaps the most talented horse in the field. I REALLY want to see him win this race...

If he runs back to his Belmont sprint races (this year's debut in the restricted stake or last year's optional claimer tour-de-force), watch out!!

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This makes a lot of sense. Look any horse, such as Commentator, who didn't debut until August of his 3YO year, and has since made 11 starts in 27 months clearly has issues. I would guess it is some combination of what most people have surmised in this thread.

I'll say this about Commentator, and obviously I am biased and will be rooting for him for personal reasons, while he is hard to bet in this race, and trouble at the start or not last time, his ability to rate is dramatically in question, he has a couple of races under his belt that would blow this field apart. Do I honestly think he will win? Not really. However, at the 15-1ish he will be, I think it is fair to say he is one horse in this race who's actual chances of winning exceed his odds. He is very much the forgotten horse.

Why would you be biased?

Anyway, I agree here. Last year's Whitney was the best route performance I've ever seen a sprinter run (or at least that I can remember seeing). A very, very exciting race. One of Stevens' best.

Just for fun, pull up the replay of his Allowance win at Belmont and watch Channing Hill hold on for dear life as Commentator scorched the track.

[randallscott35]

The fastest NY bred who has ever lived. No other NY bred has ever run a -5 thoro.