2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[lemoncrush]

I was in Vegas over the weekend, and stared blankly at the Wynn future book odds for about 15 minutes.
Usually, I have some good ideas at this point, and have already made a few future wagers.

But this year more than ever, I think it's possible we haven't seen the Derby winner yet.

The only horse I was considering was B Shanny, but couldn't remember how serious his injury was. He was around 100-1, I think.

[Rudeboyelvis]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/fw/bris_library/Index

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I was in Vegas over the weekend, and stared blankly at the Wynn future book odds for about 15 minutes.
Usually, I have some good ideas at this point, and have already made a few future wagers.

But this year more than ever, I think it's possible we haven't seen the Derby winner yet.

The only horse I was considering was B Shanny, but couldn't remember how serious his injury was. He was around 100-1, I think.

He is slow, really slow. I would not take 500-1 on him.

[philcski]

There used to be a LOT of value in future bets. However, in '04, when Smarty Jones won, the books took an absolute BEATING (he was 200-1 in late December and still 150-1 in February) and ever since then even horses breaking their maidens in fast times at far-flung locations have odds less than 100-1.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by philcski

There used to be a LOT of value in future bets. However, in '04, when Smarty Jones won, the books took an absolute BEATING (he was 200-1 in late December and still 150-1 in February) and ever since then even horses breaking their maidens in fast times at far-flung locations have odds less than 100-1.

Horses breaking their maidens in fast times at this time of year, or later, rarely are any sort of factor at all.

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

Agreed. . . that's about half his fair odds at best.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

His sire has nothing to do with why I think he's a legit derby contender. It is a reason I'm a fan of the horse, but I am able to keep those two seperate.

I think his first race was very promising, and believe it or not, I found encouragement from his win the other day.

I am not saying he's the next Secretariat. Just that I think he's one of the three or four most promising 2yos I've seen this crop, in the context of being a derby threat (based on distance ability, he's very green and still running well, etc.).

I don't think he's the type of horse that needs to run big numbers right now.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

His sire has nothing to do with why I think he's a legit derby contender. It is a reason I'm a fan of the horse, but I am able to keep those two seperate.

I think his first race was very promising, and believe it or not, I found encouragement from his win the other day.

I am not saying he's the next Secretariat. Just that I think he's one of the three or four most promising 2yos I've seen this crop, in the context of being a derby threat (based on distance ability, he's very green and still running well, etc.).

I don't think he's the type of horse that needs to run big numbers right now.

Legit Derby contender or not, 75-1 seems like an underlay on him at this point in time in my opinion.

No offense intended, but I don't think you are able to separate your being a fan and how you rate horses. If this horse had a different sire you wouldn't be nearly as interested in him as you are.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Horses breaking their maidens in fast times at this time of year, or later, rarely are any sort of factor at all.

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

In the last 14 Kentucky Derbies, of the 42 possible placings, over half (23) were filled by horses breaking their maidens on or after October 18.

[RockHardTen1985]

Its all apples and oranges if you ask me. Who can really make a line now, 7 months out? Im not sure how anyone can project what is fair and not fair.
Liason for example at 75-1, I really have no clue about that. If he wins the Grade 1 coming up at Hollywood what will his odds be? He should be favored to win that race, so maybe 75-1 is value.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

In the last 14 Kentucky Derbies, of the 42 possible placings, over half (23) were filled by horses breaking their maidens on or after October 18.

Yes, but with lights out performances in their maiden wins?

[tector]

We'll know more when he has a meaningful race on dirt.

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...11-14-Wynn.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/14, so it reflects the racing last weekend.

Plainly, however, I should have done more research, since I now find out Luckys had KD futures up too:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...-10-Luckys.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/10, so it does NOT reflect last weekend's racing.

I found the link to Luckys here:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.html

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yes, but with lights out performances in their maiden wins?

Depends on what we're calling a lights out performance, I guess.

15 of the 23 horses broke their maiden by 2 lengths or more. 12 of the 21 I have BSF for earned a figure of 84 or higher.