Breeders Cup Handicapping Thoughts.

[parsixfarms]

My Miss Aurelia looks like most talented filly in Juvenile Fillies, but with Say a Novena in post 13 with Trujillo, and Candrea in post 2, this race almost has to have a fast pace. I wonder where Miss Netta will be early on. She went wire-to-wire in debut, and improved figure in second start despite horrid start in Frizette. If she can rate, she could be in good spot with good post draw. If race falls apart, I wonder if Self Preservation could be a live longshot. Half-sister to Kissin Saint, she was inexplicably put on pace in well-bet Oak Leaf by P Val. Switch to Rosario almost assures she reverts to off the pace tactics employed successfully in Del Mar Debutante. Not sold on Grace Hall, whose signature win was a decidedly subpar edition of the Spinaway.

[parsixfarms]

3YO fillies seem to have Distaff at their mercy. Return to two turns after premature move in Beldame probably makes Royal Delta, reportedly one of the week's training stars, the horse to beat. Of the older fillies, Pachattack handled dirt in Personal Ensign and has figures fast enough to be competitive. With others in here doing the dirty work, she could get a good trip and hit the board at an overlaid price.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

3YO fillies seem to have Distaff at their mercy. Return to two turns after premature move in Beldame probably makes Royal Delta, reportedly one of the week's training stars, the horse to beat. Of the older fillies, Pachattack handled dirt in Personal Ensign and has figures fast enough to be competitive. With others in here doing the dirty work, she could get a good trip and hit the board at an overlaid price.

Miss Match has been oddly campaigned this year, yet ran a couple of decent races alongside Switch (for what that's worth). Her last pair of races, both against males, cloud her form.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

http://hoovescapping.blogspot.com/

dont have time for friday but saturdays up for those who care..good luck at the bc

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Miss Match has been oddly campaigned this year, yet ran a couple of decent races alongside Switch (for what that's worth). Her last pair of races, both against males, cloud her form.

I don't disagree with your points, and Drysdale has excellent record in Cup. I just get the sense that, for her to win, there would have to be a complete meltdown, and horses like Royal Delta and Pachattack, who would ordinarily have first run on her, would have to not show up. I think she is entirely plausible as an "underneath" horse.