Blind Luck Is Awesome; To be offered at KEE Nov. Sale

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

All true but that's the main point. There is very little consistency among them. They are all big ifs. Flat Out just won today what I believe is his first graded stakes and he dominated it in such a fashion that hopes are up that he might be something good, forgetting he's five and not a 3yo in his fourth career start and what he did last out.

A major difference between the older male division and the female one is the stakes programs offered to each. Part of the reason the older males take turns beating each other is that they are forced to ship around. The Donn winner has been on the road. The Big Cap winner has been on the road. NYRA's stakes are geared towards milers in the early part of the season. There's not a lot of opportunity to lay down a string of good races at the same venue.

The females meanwhile can get away with being homebodies. Why are we blessed with such consistent machines like Havre de Grace and Awesome Maria? One big reason is they haven't had to face one another. They have convenient Grade 3 preps before the signature events which allows them to rack up wins. Havre de Grace has run in one significant race all year, and got up to beat, but did not dominate, Switch--a good barometer for her division. Arguably, Awesome Maria hasn't run in an important race all year. They've had things their own way all season. Let them sort themselves out first before declaring all 3 capable of facing males.

Even if there was a truly dominant female, that wouldn't mean it could hang with the boys anyways. Better mares like Bayakoa ('90 Big Cap unplaced), Paseana ('92 Pacific Classic uplaced), and Gorgeous ('90 Pimlico Special unplaced) tried males when the older horses seemed in flux, yet got chewed up and spit out anyways. It would probably need to be an advantageous spot for one of those fillies to beat males this year.

Maybe if they run the Brooklyn a week before the Jockey Club Gold Cup again their might be an opportunity...

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

its ok it will all shake out at toga

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Even if there was a truly dominant female, that wouldn't mean it could hang with the boys anyways. Better mares like Bayakoa ('90 Big Cap unplaced), Paseana ('92 Pacific Classic uplaced), and Gorgeous ('90 Pimlico Special unplaced) tried males when the older horses seemed in flux, yet got chewed up and spit out anyways. It would probably need to be an advantageous spot for one of those fillies to beat males this year.

Island Fashion wasn't as good as either of these fillies and she ran quite nicely in the 2004 big cap just getting beaten by Southern Image. Southern Image would have little trouble against any of the older males today.

Blind Luck and Havre De Grace are a lot closer in quality to Bayakoa and Gorgeous than Morning line is to Criminal Type or Ruhlmann.

Which handicap race run this year would Blind Luck or Havre De Grace not have been among the first couple of choices?

[classhandicapper]

I think the older mare division is pretty tough and right now both the older male and 3YO male division look pretty weak (compared to last year also), but I don't think any of these mares are going to be able to be able to win the Classic (for example). They might not even be very competitive unless they clunk up for a piece.

It's still early in the season and some of the older males are not firing on all cylinders yet. A few horses are still likely to step forward. If no one is doing any serious running in 2-3 months, then it might be a consideration.

The gap between high level older males and females going 10F on dirt is fairly large on average. IMO it takes a GREAT mare to be competitive in the Classic.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Island Fashion wasn't as good as either of these fillies and she ran quite nicely in the 2004 big cap just getting beaten by Southern Image. Southern Image would have little trouble against any of the older males today.

IIRC, Southern Image was never in danger at any point in the race and won quite easily. Island Fashion was able to finish ahead of a bunch of horses that didn't belong in the race. From that standpoint, it was one of those opportunistic spots I mentioned.

Blind Luck and Havre De Grace are a lot closer in quality to Bayakoa and Gorgeous than Morning line is to Criminal Type or Ruhlmann.

Only in terms of consistency. Certainly Blind Luck and Havre De Grace are slower than Bayakoa, etc. on speed figures.

Two males have tossed out 113 Beyers this year. It's dubious that those numbers are repeatable, but it suggests that there's some separation from the older female division when the males run to their best.

The consistency issue is why I suppose there would be an opportunistic spot somewhere for females to do well vs. males. I don't think the Whitney will be that race, however. Maybe a nice Grade 3 like the Iselin or the Hawthorne Gold Cup.

Which handicap race run this year would Blind Luck or Havre De Grace not have been among the first couple of choices?

That's not the issue. Of course, they'd get bet. The issue is whether or not they would have won any of those races.

Thus far, the only handicap that maybe was ripe for a female in retrospect was the light Oaklawn Handicap. But Havre de Grace seems to show her best at 8.5f, not 9f, so it's still a good possibility that the mighty Win Willy would have come and got her.