Dave "Bombs Away" Liftin

[Linny]

Litfin is very good. Fact is that Bold Warrior was the most likely winner of the day but the term " best bet" is the phrase used.

As for public handicappers and ROI, I understand why it's generally not published. First, selections are usually made 36 hours in advance with condiditons/scratches a mystery and the fact that no handicapper actually plays every race. Every public handicapper I've met has at some point HAD to make selections on races that they wouldn't bet for anything because they just can't get a good grip on them.

Picking alot of winners gets attention. Most people using the information from a public 'capper are not just blindly betting their top choice to win. They are confirming their choices or maybe mixing their "top choice" with their favorite public 'cappers' choices in EX/TRI/SUP or multi race play. If they choose to blend their picks with Litfin's and walk out with plenty more than they walked in with, to them Litfin is great even if he didn't have a "top choice" winner all day.

[Calzone Lord]

I think I had a top-pick winner today who was rescued from a slaughter house since it last ran.

Horse probably would have paid $90.00 to win if the race was on a Tuesday or Wed and all that TVG viewer money was in the pools:









* Two plus year layoff (like 27 month layoff to be exact)

* Three years since its had a top four finish

* Only two published workouts

Obviously it goes wire-to-wire against paceless slugs and wins by 7 lengths in-hand.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110702&RN=3

My ROI is pretty good with Prime Timber offspring this meet. He also sired the $76 winner.

[pweizer]

It should be noted that Litfin did not select 1-5 morning line Hilda's Passion as his best bet today. Thus, it can't be only most likely winner as the criteria.

Paul

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by pweizer

It should be noted that Litfin did not select 1-5 morning line Hilda's Passion as his best bet today. Thus, it can't be only most likely winner as the criteria.

Paul

He obviously knew that HP would not even hit the board. Liftin for President.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I think I had a top-pick winner today who was rescued from a slaughter house since it last ran.

Horse probably would have paid $90.00 to win if the race was on a Tuesday or Wed and all that TVG viewer money was in the pools:



* Two plus year layoff (like 27 month layoff to be exact)

* Three years since its had a top four finish

* Only two published workouts

Obviously it goes wire-to-wire against paceless slugs and wins by 7 lengths in-hand.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110702&RN=3

My ROI is pretty good with Prime Timber offspring this meet. He also sired the $76 winner.

Yeah, but you missed the exacta and trifecta!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Yeah, but you missed the exacta and trifecta!

Yeah, Phil?

$65 winner tonight - and caught the exacta cold - but photo'd out of the tri.




http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110707&RN=3


The TVG money was in the pools tonight - 25K in the win pool. Over 30K in the exacta pool. Almost 25K in the tri pool.

My fans were going wild - all six of them.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah, Phil?

$65 winner tonight - and caught the exacta cold - but photo'd out of the tri.




http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110707&RN=3


The TVG money was in the pools tonight - 25K in the win pool. Over 30K in the exacta pool. Almost 25K in the tri pool.

My fans were going wild - all six of them.

Wow, nice! I'm just busting your balls. Any time you can get a $30+ winner on top it's going to be a good day. Cold $1k tris only exist in fantasyland. I think I had one... once.

Just out of morbid curiosity... what the hell did you like about this horse? Never seen FL shippers do particularly well at PID.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Just out of morbid curiosity... what the hell did you like about this horse? Never seen FL shippers do particularly well at PID.

The $76 horse was a FL shipper too. Finger Lakes shippers actually do pretty well here - even at the top levels.


$65 winner:



The horse sold for 65K at OBS (synthetic) March - a lot for a Van Nistleroy filly. It had never raced on synthetic before - I had a hunch it might like it. It was drawn inside. It's last race was clearly a throw-out - you need only look at the huge Moss Pace Figure fall-off for the opening 1/4 and gate trouble line to see that.

The trainer is 26-for-96 (27%) with a huge $3.84 ROI on synthetics. He basically KILLED them here last year. He was only 1-for-20 at this years meet - but from handicapping every race - I know that I've liked his horses very few times this meet despite looking for excuses to pick them sometimes.

He also went with Harry Vega (who he is 30% with here) instead of a low percentage Jabroni.

Basically - nothing strong to like about this horse - just a lot of subtle positives - and I HATED everyone else in the race.


Here's the 4/5 favorite who finished 2nd:




She was beaten 18 lengths when claimed for 6K from Patrick Biancone four starts back.

She's run six times on synthetic before - and dirt is her better surface.

She doesn't have the pace figures to ensure she will get to the inside and clear (which is huge)

You don't end up with positive ROI taking 4/5 shots like that - you go with the projection when you have no other sane option.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The $76 horse was a FL shipper too. Finger Lakes shippers actually do pretty well here - even at the top levels.


$65 winner:



The horse sold for 65K at OBS (synthetic) March - a lot for a Van Nistleroy filly. It had never raced on synthetic before - I had a hunch it might like it. It was drawn inside. It's last race was clearly a throw-out - you need only look at the huge Moss Pace Figure fall-off for the opening 1/4 and gate trouble line to see that.

The trainer is 26-for-96 (27%) with a huge $3.84 ROI on synthetics. He basically KILLED them here last year. He was only 1-for-20 at this years meet - but from handicapping every race - I know that I've liked his horses very few times this meet despite looking for excuses to pick them sometimes.

He also went with Harry Vega (who he is 30% with here) instead of a low percentage Jabroni.

Basically - nothing strong to like about this horse - just a lot of subtle positives - and I HATED everyone else in the race.


Here's the 4/5 favorite who finished 2nd:




She was beaten 18 lengths when claimed for 6K from Patrick Biancone four starts back.

She's run six times on synthetic before - and dirt is her better surface.

She doesn't have the pace figures to ensure she will get to the inside and clear (which is huge)

You don't end up with positive ROI taking 4/5 shots like that - you go with the projection when you have no other sane option.

I figured it had something to do with the trainer's strong ROI on synth (and PID, I'm assuming virtually all of his synth starters were at PID anyways.) But your logic on the OBS sale price (i.e. strong synth work) is a great key ... never really thought about that but it makes a lot of sense for Keeneland as well. And as you said, the race totally sucked otherwise so worth a shot at a bomb.

Great work.