ouija board points to the classic

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Sorry, but I can think of little I find more relevent than surface and if you think Gorella runs in any way like a horse that would be successful on the dirt I want a big bag of what you're smoking.....because you're flat out nuts or stoned. As for Wait a While....send me a bag of that as well. Dude, she's ALREADY competed extensively on the dirt and PROVEN herself to be inferior to the competition she would be facing. To suggest that her sudden improvement when put on the turf was somehow random, and I guess just coincidental to a huge physical improvement on her part, is as unsubstantiatable as it is ludicrous. Hell, Pletcher even said well before the American Oaks he felt she was better on the turf.

Frankly, any random opinion you give that turns out to be true is WAY overshadowed by the plentitude of illogical thoughts.

I never knew that opinions had to be substantiated by facts. I also know that there are more ways than one to skin a cat. U think surface is more important than I do, I think other things are. How do we know which method is better? Is one better than the other? I see Gorella as a horse that moves like a horse. I would not count her out of doing something she's never tried until she shows me that she can't. As for Wait a While, hey, sometimes horses do improve drastically. If Personal Ensign, Go for Wand, and Paseana were pointing for the Distaff, I wouldn't go there. But this year's group doesn't scare me at all and she's going in such great form right now that it could be worth taking a shot. Lava Man used to lose races at Fairplex. Couldn't win on the dirt or the grass. But now look at him. Once he got good, he was able to win grade one races on both surfaces. Do u think that as good as Cigar got when switched to the dirt, he would have reverted back to average at best if they had put him back on the grass? I don't. Maybe a proverbial "light" went off in her head and she'd be better now on dirt than she was before. Who knows? I don't know for sure either way just as I'm sure u don't either.

In any way, I don't think any of my opinions turn out to be true or false. If I suggest something (GW in the Classic for instance) and they decide to try it, that doesn't make my opinion true. Either way, it was still just an opinion of what I think. Never once do I state them to be facts so I don't look for them to be right or wrong.

I have done a little research on this and talked to some of my contacts in the know at Churchill Downs and nobody has heard of this yet. This is likely a rumor.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I never knew that opinions had to be substantiated by facts. I also know that there are more ways than one to skin a cat. U think surface is more important than I do, I think other things are. How do we know which method is better? Is one better than the other? I see Gorella as a horse that moves like a horse. I would not count her out of doing something she's never tried until she shows me that she can't. As for Wait a While, hey, sometimes horses do improve drastically. If Personal Ensign, Go for Wand, and Paseana were pointing for the Distaff, I wouldn't go there. But this year's group doesn't scare me at all and she's going in such great form right now that it could be worth taking a shot. Lava Man used to lose races at Fairplex. Couldn't win on the dirt or the grass. But now look at him. Once he got good, he was able to win grade one races on both surfaces. Do u think that as good as Cigar got when switched to the dirt, he would have reverted back to average at best if they had put him back on the grass? I don't. Maybe a proverbial "light" went off in her head and she'd be better now on dirt than she was before. Who knows? I don't know for sure either way just as I'm sure u don't either.

In any way, I don't think any of my opinions turn out to be true or false. If I suggest something (GW in the Classic for instance) and they decide to try it, that doesn't make my opinion true. Either way, it was still just an opinion of what I think. Never once do I state them to be facts so I don't look for them to be right or wrong.

In racing, opinions do get either substantiated or invalidated by fact, and it is the ones with good opinions that will prevail over those with bad ones.

I would say that I basically disagree with everything in your post and I would also say that history backs me up. Yes, I think Cigar improved because he went to the dirt. Yes, I think Wait a While improved because she was shifted to the turf. I believe that neither would ( or would have ) transfered their surface improvement if switched back to the other surface.

I do not mean this question to be condescending, and admire your enthusiasm for the game, but I am curious...do you bet? And if the answer is yes....do you bet enough money so that losing can be at least a little painful? Once again, it is NO measure of a person whether or not they bet, or how much if they do, but somehow it feels like these opinions of yours have never felt the pain they would receive at the windows.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In racing, opinions do get either substantiated or invalidated by fact, and it is the ones with good opinions that will prevail over those with bad ones.

I would say that I basically disagree with everything in your post and I would also say that history backs me up. Yes, I think Cigar improved because he went to the dirt. Yes, I think Wait a While improved because she was shifted to the turf. I believe that neither would ( or would have ) transfered their surface improvement if switched back to the other surface.

I do not mean this question to be condescending, and admire your enthusiasm for the game, but I am curious...do you bet? And if the answer is yes....do you bet enough money so that losing can be at least a little painful? Once again, it is NO measure of a person whether or not they bet, or how much if they do, but somehow it feels like these opinions of yours have never felt the pain they would receive at the windows.

I don't bet nearly as much as I used to because it did get too painful. There were plenty of good wins. Plenty of tough losses. When I do bet, I try to bet on the horse I think is the best horse period and will appreciate the distance of the race. So yes, I do back my wild opinions with my money.

I think it's interesting that u say opinions get substantiated or invalidated by facts. I suppose u would say that if they ran Ouija Board in the Classic and she lost by 10, it would support your opinion. U could say "see, I knew she couldn't do anything in this spot" and feel validated. I, however, don't see it that way. Because she might lose there doesn't mean that she would have won in the other spot. And a loss still doesn't take away from the impetus behind the decision in the first place, which was to take on a new challenge. I still admire that. I don't think that u go into new challenges feeling like u have to win in order for it to be a successful decision. I come from a basketball background and many times I've taken a big shot and missed. But I was wide open and the opportunity presented itself so I had to take it. I said in previous thread about Lava Man that I think u have to dare to be great even when it's easy to settle for being good. A horse like Ouija Board, her position is set at this moment. It won't rise with a win in the F/M Turf and it won't suffer with a loss in the Classic. But with a win or top showing in the Classic, her place in history, whatever that is, will be elevated. And even if she were to win the Classic, I still don't feel like my opinion would be validated because I'm not looking at the result for validation. My opinion is only in regards to the decision making that put u in the position in the first place. To each his own though.

[blackthroatedwind]

Your Ouiji Board example, though I am still dubious about her actually running in the Classic, has some merit. The upside is significant with the downside negligable at best. However, the specific ideas of Gorella and ( especially ) Wait a While are nonsensical...IMO.

It's not about saying after a race " I told you so ", as that is foolishness, but my point is that in racing you get the opportunity to get confirmation, one way or another, of your opinions. That is something I really like about the game.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Your Ouiji Board example, though I am still dubious about her actually running in the Classic, has some merit. The upside is significant with the downside negligable at best. However, the specific ideas of Gorella and ( especially ) Wait a While are nonsensical...IMO.

It's not about saying after a race " I told you so ", as that is foolishness, but my point is that in racing you get the opportunity to get confirmation, one way or another, of your opinions. That is something I really like about the game.

I agree that u can get confirmation of your opinions in most cases. When u handicap a race, u are looking for confirmation by picking a winner. But I don't think there can be confirmation on whether a move is a sporting move or not.

Personally, I feel that if Gorella or Wait a While were able to run even at 75% of what they are capable of on turf, they would dominate the Distaff.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Personally, I feel that if Gorella or Wait a While were able to run even at 75% of what they are capable of on turf, they would dominate the Distaff.

Are you challenging yourself to make even crazier comments every time you post?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Are you challenging yourself to make even crazier comments every time you post?

It's only crazy to u because u don't believe it. That doesn't make it crazy.

[Independent George]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't bet nearly as much as I used to because it did get too painful. There were plenty of good wins. Plenty of tough losses. When I do bet, I try to bet on the horse I think is the best horse period and will appreciate the distance of the race. So yes, I do back my wild opinions with my money.

I think it's interesting that u say opinions get substantiated or invalidated by facts. I suppose u would say that if they ran Ouija Board in the Classic and she lost by 10, it would support your opinion. U could say "see, I knew she couldn't do anything in this spot" and feel validated. I, however, don't see it that way. Because she might lose there doesn't mean that she would have won in the other spot. And a loss still doesn't take away from the impetus behind the decision in the first place, which was to take on a new challenge. I still admire that. I don't think that u go into new challenges feeling like u have to win in order for it to be a successful decision. I come from a basketball background and many times I've taken a big shot and missed. But I was wide open and the opportunity presented itself so I had to take it. I said in previous thread about Lava Man that I think u have to dare to be great even when it's easy to settle for being good. A horse like Ouija Board, her position is set at this moment. It won't rise with a win in the F/M Turf and it won't suffer with a loss in the Classic. But with a win or top showing in the Classic, her place in history, whatever that is, will be elevated. And even if she were to win the Classic, I still don't feel like my opinion would be validated because I'm not looking at the result for validation. My opinion is only in regards to the decision making that put u in the position in the first place. To each his own though.

This reminds me of Joe Pesci's comment to Deniro in Raging Bull, "If you win, you win; if you lose, you still win." You just made a "can't lose" statement.