Derby draw

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Pat I need an update on Sweet Ducky's condition stat.

I'll take that as a "yes, this is the first Derby draw I've watched on television."

[slotdirt]

Did I hear Battaglia say Twice the Appeal is 20-1 strictly because Borel is on him? Does that seem irresponsible to anybody else?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Did I hear Battaglia say Twice the Appeal is 20-1 strictly because Borel is on him? Does that seem irresponsible to anybody else?

No. You don't think the horse is going to take money simply because Borel is on him?

[slotdirt]

Of course he is, but at 50-1, I would consider playing the horse in some form or fashion even with the Borel bump. But at 20-1, what's the point? Just seems odd to hear an oddsmaker say he took a horse from 50-1 to 20-1 strictly because of a jockey.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Of course he is, but at 50-1, I would consider playing the horse in some form or fashion even with the Borel bump. But at 20-1, what's the point? Just seems odd to hear an oddsmaker say he took a horse from 50-1 to 20-1 strictly because of a jockey.

I don't really think he would have been 50-1 on the ML with a jockey like Dominguez or Rosario riding him. He probably would have been 30-1 at that point.

Surely Twice the Appeal with a different (but competent rider) would have to be shorter on the ML than the two 50-1 shots he made (Decisive Moment, Watch Me Go), right?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I don't really think he would have been 50-1 on the ML with a jockey like Dominguez or Rosario riding him. He probably would have been 30-1 at that point.

Surely Twice the Appeal with a different (but competent rider) would have to be shorter on the ML than the two 50-1 shots he made (Decisive Moment, Watch Me Go), right?

For what it's worth, Twice the Appeal looked very good physically today schooling in the paddock. I was with Jeff Bonde during the session, and he's pleased with how the colt is finishing up toward race day.

Smiling Tiger was schooling too. He's enormous and imposing.

[Alan07]

11th (6:30) 137th Kentucky Derby
Odds By Mike Watchmaker

1. Archarcharch, J. Court, 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario, 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1
4. Stay Thirsty, R. Dominguez, 30-1
5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1
8. Dialed In, J. Leparoux, 4-1
9. Derby Kitten, J. Castellano, 30-1
10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1
12. Santiva, S. Bridgmohan, 30-1
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1
15. Midnight Interlude, V. Espinoza, 12-1
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1
17. Soldat, A. Garcia, 20-1
18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1
19. Nehro, C. Nakatani, 6-1
20. Watch Me Go, R. Bejarano, 50-1

[somerfrost]

Battaglia's job in posting the ML is to estimate the public's view, not give his opinion of a given horse's chances. The fact that Borel is on the horse will undoubtedly bring his odds down.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Did I hear Battaglia say Twice the Appeal is 20-1 strictly because Borel is on him? Does that seem irresponsible to anybody else?

Irresponsible?
Absolutely not.
He is almost surely right in guessing that the horse will take a ton more money simply because of the jockey.

[slotdirt]

It's fine, I just hate seeing a horse who could be a juicy longshot at 20-1 on the m/l rather than the number he probably deserved.

[randallscott35]

In this group Twice the Appeal can hit the board.

[Sightseek]

There was an article in the DRF on Battaglia's ML vs. Watchmaker's.

Great post for Comma to the Top to come out running.

[Danzig]

don't like arch/3's chances at all with the one hole. his running style plus that spot= a very tough time.

i think after looking over the field....i'd have to back midnight interlude. twice the appeal a longshot pick-partly the jock, but partly because his dirt starts have been very good.