Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by paulo537

So I read here the out of the money 4/5 was a "strong underlay" and the 25/1 winner was an (well, of course) overlay.

Easy game.

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

yeah ok, but you have uncle mo at 19.25%.....what races have you been watching???what do you base the 19.25% on????? his race in november?? or the two most recent efforts?? two efforts that will go a long way to winning the derby.....but the "people" are retarded.....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

yeah ok, but you have uncle mo at 19.25%.....what races have you been watching???what do you base the 19.25% on????? his race in november?? or the two most recent efforts??

A repeat of his race in November - over the CD tracks - will easily win the KY Derby - and his two performances this year are about as good as the last two performances of any horse in this crop pointing for the KY Derby.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A repeat of his race in November - over the CD tracks - will easily win the KY Derby - and his two performances this year are about as good as the last two performances of any horse in this crop pointing for the KY Derby.

you are kidding me right? then you post that i'm analytically incompetent...even though i pretty much make my living doing this. its also part of the reason i get mad at your drival. people actually buy this crap as knowledge. his last two performances have been dreadful for a horse thats supposed to be the best.....oh yeah, he ran as good as tobys corner, archarcharch, nehro....ect.....the other guy was more accurate than your crappy 19.5%...that horse is probably 19.5% chance of even running. of course i'm hoping he does. every trainer dreams of having his 1-10 shot throwing out the anchor after a dawdling pace compared to the ark derby...maybe you should increase it to 33.3%????? thats how i make my money betting horses that will pay the same to show as they do to win...when they are 1-10.....lol...gee, i better bet him to win i'll get 2.20 instead of 2.10 to show.........people are billliant and i'm always there to cash on their brilliance. i heard it on good authority that uncle mo ran faster than blame and zenyatta at churchill too.....lol....

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

you are kidding me right? then you post that i'm analytically incompetent...even though i pretty much make my living doing this. its also part of the reason i get mad at your drival. people actually buy this crap as knowledge. his last two performances have been dreadful for a horse thats supposed to be the best.....oh yeah, he ran as good as tobys corner, archarcharch, nehro....ect.....the other guy was more accurate than your crappy 19.5%...that horse is probably 19.5% chance of even running. of course i'm hoping he does. every trainer dreams of having his 1-10 shot throwing out the anchor after a dawdling pace compared to the ark derby...maybe you should increase it to 33.3%????? thats how i make my money betting horses that will pay the same to show as they do to win...when they are 1-10.....lol...gee, i better bet him to win i'll get 2.20 instead of 2.10 to show.........people are billliant and i'm always there to cash on their brilliance. at least you finally gave up on to honor and serve...oh yeah, you didn't, he got hurt and spared the embarrassment. i heard it on good authority that uncle mo ran faster than blame and zenyatta at churchill too.....lol....

I've really tried to be tolerant of your blinkers induced narrow field of vision, but man, you are a dolt.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've really tried to be tolerant of your blinkers induced narrow field of vision, but man, you are a dolt.

Perhaps, but his writing style is so aesthetically pleasing!

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Perhaps, but his writing style is so aesthetically pleasing!

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've really tried to be tolerant of your blinkers induced narrow field of vision, but man, you are a dolt.

What does the fact that you and others basically call Uncle Mo the horse to beat solely off his 2 yo form make you?

Hopefully, nothing more serious than just being a Mo-tard.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by paulo537

What does the fact that you and others basically call Uncle Mo the horse to beat solely off his 2 yo form make you?

Hopefully, nothing more serious than just being a Mo-tard.

Are people really saying that?
I guess everybody has their own definition of what "horse to beat" means but I don't see anybody in this thread saying he's the "horse to beat." You might think DrugS gave him too high of a chance to win on his list, and you might be right, but based on his percentages he is still saying he thinks there's over an 80% chance that Uncle Mo will NOT win the Derby. To me, that isn't exactly a huge endorsement of Mo or constitute "basically" calling him the horse to beat.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

you are kidding me right? then you post that i'm analytically incompetent...even though i pretty much make my living doing this. its also part of the reason i get mad at your drival. people actually buy this crap as knowledge. his last two performances have been dreadful for a horse thats supposed to be the best.....oh yeah, he ran as good as tobys corner, archarcharch, nehro....ect.....the other guy was more accurate than your crappy 19.5%...that horse is probably 19.5% chance of even running. of course i'm hoping he does. every trainer dreams of having his 1-10 shot throwing out the anchor after a dawdling pace compared to the ark derby...maybe you should increase it to 33.3%????? thats how i make my money betting horses that will pay the same to show as they do to win...when they are 1-10.....lol...gee, i better bet him to win i'll get 2.20 instead of 2.10 to show.........people are billliant and i'm always there to cash on their brilliance. i heard it on good authority that uncle mo ran faster than blame and zenyatta at churchill too.....lol....

What does pretty much make my living doing this mean? The few opinions you have given before races have been dreadful. I think if you actually took a few seconds and tried to understand what DrugS is saying, it might make more sense. Or maybe someone could read it to you and explain it. He's not saying he is betting Uncle Mo, or would want to right now. He's just talking about odds.

Also, does ignoring all questions or responses that make you look foolish mean they don't exist? You're not the only one that does this, but you're one of the best.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What does pretty much make my living doing this mean? The few opinions you have given before races have been dreadful. I think if you actually took a few seconds and tried to understand what DrugS is saying, it might make more sense. Or maybe someone could read it to you and explain it. He's not saying he is betting Uncle Mo, or would want to right now. He's just talking about odds.

Also, does ignoring all questions or responses that make you look foolish mean they don't exist? You're not the only one that does this, but you're one of the best.

I caught that too, but thought it better to not ask such foolish questions.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I caught that too, but thought it better to not ask such foolish questions.

Cans and copper can only pay so much.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

24/1 is 4%.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by justindew

24/1 is 4%.

A little gift from me to you: http://www.calculator.com/calcs/calc_sci.html

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

A little gift from me to you: http://www.calculator.com/calcs/calc_sci.html

LOL

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

I see.

Your top two have, as you call it, a 35% chance of winning, right?

Neither of them has a greater than 50% chance of running.

I've seen people shoehorned into handicapping by BSFs before but really this is amazing.

I'll save the return insult and not label you a hopeless Mo-tard, but it was a bit of a tough decision.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by paulo537

I see.

Your top two have, as you call it, a 35% chance of winning, right?

Neither of them has a greater than 50% chance of running.

Really? I'd make a humongous bet at even money that Dialed In will run. Your statement is ridiculous unless you have some inside knowledge about Dialed In's condition, which I doubt.


--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

Does anyone think Uncle Mo goes off the favorite, despite Dialed In's win/record?

[santana]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Does anyone think Uncle Mo goes off the favorite, despite Dialed In's win/record?

I think he will be the fav, not by much though.

[DaTruth]

I know horses can often develop quickly between the end of their 2yo season and the Derby, but it is kinda disturbing that the fourth horse on your list was getting drubbed in a maiden race at Fair Grounds in December. Not that Archarcharch was that much more accomplished at the time, as six days later, he broke his maiden while beating three opponents in the Sugar Bowl.