My theory and feelings on Polytrack

Originally Posted by oracle80

Joel,
Up here in the summer our local newspaper prints the previous days handle and shows what the running total to date is as compared to the prior years handle after the same number of days.
I predicted that Keeneland would show a bump early on handle then slow down later. Can you get any stats as to where they stand in regards to handle compared to the same number of racing days last year at the fall meet?
Calder just reported a 2% increase in handle without "polytrack" at their recently concluded 112 day meet, and Fresno out in California was reporting a 4% handle increase. Since this seems to be the trend in with tracks these days, I'd predict an overall handle increase at Keeneland to be within 2-4% at meets conclusion. Anything less than that will actually be interpreted as a negative sign in this corner.

The one thing to consider about Calder though was that they had their Festival of the Sun card last weekend and had a good handle day with all of teh stakes on the card and good weather.....I like your logic, Mike, and I think it'll play out that way....I really do because I know I won't bet Keeneland now as much as I used to hammer it.....I just won't, and I know other advanced handicappers will find an alternative too beore they give the edge they've created over the general public over the years back.....we've worked too hard to acquire a better understanding of how to play the races over teh yaesr to play on a level playingfield with casual fans - and that is exactly what Polytrack does...

I would almost lay the odds at '"pick 'em" in a handicapping contest at Keeneland with a lady spending her second day ever at a racetrack who doesn't even know how to read a program.....she seriously has as much chance as I do of making money runnng over that crap....

[JJP]

I think there's some definite positives and negatives re: Polytrack to us bettors. Lets look past the breakdown stuff, and kickback and look at it strictly as bettors:

Any time something new occurs, the better horsebettors adapt quickly. For instance, I believe KY didn't have any turf racing until 20 years ago (or thereabouts). Those able to adapt profited. It also brings up a whole new dynamic or how trainers treat surface switches to/from the artificial surface.

But there could be major negatives if the Polytrack is too widespread. I believe California reacted way too quickly to mandate every major track to install an artificial surface. The game is still about speed, as well it should be. The last thing we want is the majority of tracks to go to artificial surfaces. A few of them as a novelty is good but hopefully the Polytrack/Cushiontrack folks don't run the game in a few years.