|
|
 |
|
|
|
#2
02-25-2011, 01:02 PM
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
That's why he won't win there... he doesn't know who he is!  Honestly! I'm gonna say Wall Street wins but if it's Keep the Peace (or Harris Tweed which it won't be  or Vosne Romanee) does well it's all good.Okay serious things now... I didn't realize the death toll had gone up and so dramatically. Sad, sad, sad. 
|
|
#3
02-26-2011, 05:40 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Replays of the big NZ races: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Do6LHDl7Ims http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnAbOVALE44 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLe3udhwjp0
|
|
#4
02-27-2011, 05:49 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Right, time for Derby contender profiles. These might be a bit long. Sorry!
Before we start, it's been announced that King's Rose will not run in the Derby. I got all excited for nothing! Anyway, it's still a great field. I'll probably try to do two of these a day. Here we go. No prizes for guessing who we'll start with...  JIMMY CHOUX 3 c Thorn Park - Cierzo Breeder: Chouxmaani Investments Ltd. Owner: Chouxmaani Investments Ltd. Trainer: John Bary Jockey: Jonathan Riddell Starts: 15 Wins: 8 Seconds: 3 Thirds: 2 Earnings: $921,550 Major wins: New Zealand 2000 Guineas (G1) Great Northern Guineas (G2) Hawke's Bay Guineas (G2) Wakefield Stakes (G2) Wellington Stakes (G3) Waikato Guineas (G3) Last start: Waikato Guineas (1st) Best performance of the season: Waikato Guineas (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ5tofvX9pc Season so far: 2nd Wanganui Guineas behind Fiddler - beaten by a nose on a very wet track 1st Hawke's Bay Guineas, beating Icepin, Maradona, Cellarmaster, We Can Say It Now, He's Remarkable 1st New Zealand 2000 Guineas, beating He's Remarkable, Twilight Savings, Rememba Howe, Icepin 15th Levin Classic - eased (cardiac arrhythmia) 1st Great Northern Guineas, beating Icepin, Yin Yang Master 1st Wellington Stakes, beating Jetset Lad, He's Remarkable 1st Waikato Guineas, beating Historian, Yin Yang Master Pedigree: Um, not very good. Sire Thorn Park was no more than a sprinter - the longest race he ever won was just 1400m. Neither his own performance nor that of his offspring so far suggest he'll ever sire a Derby winner. Cierzo never finished in the money in a race. Her first two foals both failed to do so as well. From a pedigree point of view, Jimmy Choux should be struggling in a sprint maiden race at some rural racetrack. It just shows that sometimes a horse can completely defy what their pedigree suggests they should do. They don't know their breeding is terrible! Positives: - Best 3yo in NZ - He's beaten pretty much all of these horses, and his wins against them have all been incredibly easy - Getting better with each race - He's just awesome - Trainer and jockey doing very well this season Negatives: - Although I think he's already proven that his pedigree is irrelevant, there will be a bit of doubt over the distance until he does it. This will be the only time he runs a mile and a half in his life. - He's been racing since September, so it's been a long campaign. But his races have been well spread out. Current odds: 9-5 (favourite) So can he win? Of course he can! The only negative is the question marks over the distance, because his pedigree so strongly suggests that he should be a sprinter. But his pedigree also suggests he should be a terrible racehorse. He's ignored the ability limitations of his pedigree; why should the distance limitations be any different? Predicted finish: 1st
|
|
#5
02-27-2011, 05:54 AM
|
||||
|
||||
 HE'S REMARKABLE 3 c Pentire - Axiom Breeder: Rich Hill Stud Owner: G G Syndicate, J B Struthers & R S Balcoumb Trainer: Roger James Jockey: Matthew Cameron Starts: 7 Wins: 2 Seconds: 1 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $193,500 Last start: Avondale Guineas (10th) Best performance of the season: Rating 70 (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PetkprE1UZ0 Season so far: 1st Maiden 6th Hawke's Bay Guineas behind Jimmy Choux, Icepin, Maradona, Cellarmaster, We Can Say It Now 1st Rating 70 2nd New Zealand 2000 Guineas behind Jimmy Choux 5th Rating 90 behind Fazzle 3rd Wellington Stakes behind Jimmy Choux, Jetset Lad 10th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin - had some trouble getting a clear run Pedigree: Excellent (excuse the pun). He's by Pentire, who of course sired 2004 Derby winner Xcellent, and is known for stamina - his other good runners include Tinseltown, Pentane, Pentastic, Pentathon, Tin Goose and Zarita. And his dam, Axiom, is a daughter of champion sire Zabeel - one of the most successful stallions in NZ history, and the sire of three NZ Derby winners and also three Melbourne Cup winners. Stamina will not be an issue for He's Remarkable. Positives: - He's probably the second best 3yo we've got this season - Proven in G1 company, with his amazing performance for 2nd in the 2000 Guineas - Trainer Roger James has won the Derby three times - James considers him the best horse he's trained since Zonda, the champion of the late '90s who won the Derby in 1997. I still consider him the second best I've seen after Sunline. Negatives: - Jimmy keeps beating him. Maybe he was just born in the wrong year - Hasn't won a race since October Current odds: 7-1 (second favourite) So can he win? Yes, although his form at the moment worries me. He hasn't really shown his true ability since the 2000 Guineas in November. But while some others have some doubts about the distance, he'll love the step up to 2400m. He should be making a strong run in the last furlong or so of this great race. He should finish in the money. Predicted finish: 3rd (Ooh, who will I pick for 2nd? The suspense! )
|
|
#6
02-27-2011, 05:12 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
(Agree Jimmy wins it!). Can't wait for the rest! This is always so much appreciated and it's something I look forward to every year.
|
|
#7
02-27-2011, 07:08 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
That's good to hear! It's fun to do. Here's another one...
 BANCHEE 3 f Oratorio - Miss Jessie Jay Breeder: Hallmark Stud Owner: Pencarrow Stud Trainer: John Sargent Jockey: James McDonald Starts: 14 Wins: 5 Seconds: 2 Thirds: 1 Earnings: $419,575 Major wins: Karaka Mile Last start: Avondale Guineas (12th) Best performance of the season: Karaka Mile (1st) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO-CDZOWe1Q Season so far: 9th Gold Trail Stakes behind Rememba Howe 9th Sarten Memorial behind We Can Say It Now 6th New Zealand 1000 Guineas behind King's Rose 5th Eulogy Stakes behind King's Rose 2nd Eight Carat Classic behind Smoulder 1st Cambridge Stud 3yo, beating Historian and Yin Yang Master 1st Karaka Mile, beating Icepin 12th Avondale Guineas - unlucky in stretch Pedigree: Crazily strong in terms of ability; not so much stamina. She's a half-sister to the amazing Katie Lee. What might help her get more distance is that her sire is Oratorio, whose horses should be able to run further than horses by Katie Lee's sprint sire Pins. Positives: - She has an unbelievable finishing sprint - Already a G1 winner - Has won four times at Ellerslie, including two major races - Jockey James McDonald is the best in NZ and in amazing form - had six wins Saturday Negatives: - Although she was unlucky in her last race, I'm not sure she was really going well enough anyway - Hasn't won beyond a mile Current odds: 9-1 (fourth favourite) So can she win? Yes, but there are some big doubts hanging over her. I'd love to see her do it, and she's one of the best horses in the race for sure. I'm just worried about that last race, and the fact that she's never won over further than a mile. This is a lot further than a mile! Also, it's been 18 years since a filly won the Derby, and only one filly has finished in the money in the last 8 years. Predicted finish: 4th I'm probably going to be hugely wrong with these predictions! Off to work now. I'll do another one when I get home. Last edited by _ed_ : 02-28-2011 at 07:44 AM.
|
 |
| Thread Tools | |
| Display Modes | |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
