New Zealand Racing, 2010-11

[_ed_]

Although all of our thoughts are still with Christchurch and the families and friends of the 113 people now confirmed lost, there are some great races tomorrow that can temporarily ease the pain.

The G1 Otaki Classic:

171X2 Wall Street 2 114 59.0 Michael Coleman Jeff Lynds, Awapuni
8125X Harris Tweed 3 110 59.0 Jonathan Riddell Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge
00870 Vosne Romanee 9 106 59.0 Buddy Lammas Jeff Lynds, Awapuni
39851 Hold It Harvey 4 105 59.0 Jamie Bullard Terri Rae, Riccarton Park
62251 Spiro 6 101 59.0 Kane Smith Sylvia Kay, Levin
333X3 Keep The Peace 10 104 57.0 James McDonald (a) Shaune Ritchie, Cambridge
518X3 Barinka 8 101 57.0 Darryl Bradley Karen Zimmerman, Otaki
02124 Dasoudi 1 95 57.0 Lisa Allpress Jon Miller, Pukekohe Park

A small field, but so good! I think Wall Street should win it, but Keep The Peace is such a good horse as well. And her owners will donate whatever money they win to Christchurch, so a lot of people will be behind her tomorrow.

And two good 2yo races at Matamata...

Matamata Breeders' Stakes (fillies)

231 Anabandana (AUS) 1 74 56.0 Opie Bosson Don Sellwood, Cambridge
17168 Miss Upstart (AUS) 11 72 56.0 Andrew Calder Graham Richardson, Matamata
12 Beejay Belle 3 70 56.0 Leith Innes Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge
157 Cracker 10 68 56.0 Hayden Tinsley Andrew Scott, Matamata
31046 Queen Boudicca 8 68 56.0 Vinnie Colgan Jason Price, Matamata
451 Rose Of Falkirk 2 68 56.0 Reese Jones Mark Brosnan, Matamata
1 White Lies 6 68 56.0 Craig Grylls Stephen Marsh, Cambridge
3332 Dowager Queen 4 59 56.0 Mark Sweeney Graeme & Debbie Rogerson, Tuhikaramea
523 Orutan 7 58 56.0 Mark Du Plessis John Sargent, Matamata
3 Shopaholic 5 57 56.0 Michelle Wenn Mark Brooks, Matamata
2 Vittoria 9 57 56.0 Mark Hills Robyn & Russell Rogers, Cambridge

Anabandana is probably the best 2yo in the country on her performances so far, so it'll be interesting to see how she goes here.


Waikato Slipper (colts & geldings)

11535 Savabill 9 74 56.0 Hayden Tinsley John Sargent, Matamata
121X Bespoke 4 72 56.0 Opie Bosson Jason Bridgman, Matamata
527 Heza Rebel 8 57 56.0 Cameron Lammas Lance Noble, Matamata
63 Quintero (AUS) 7 56 56.0 Vinnie Colgan Peter McKay, Matamata
4 St Darci 1 56 56.0 Chad Ormsby Chris McNab, Cambridge
5 Boomstix 3 52 56.0 Michelle Wenn Danica Guy, Matamata
9 Karrdo 6 50 56.0 Leith Innes Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge

Savabill's the one that finished so strongly in the Million last month. That was an amazing performance, and he's the favourite here.

Oh, and 8 days til the Derby.

[_ed_]

And good luck to MUFHASA in the G1 Futurity in Melbourne! You can do it.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

And good luck to MUFHASA in the G1 Futurity in Melbourne! You can do it.

Don't you mean "King" Mufhasa? (facepalm here).

That's why he won't win there... he doesn't know who he is!

Honestly!

I'm gonna say Wall Street wins but if it's Keep the Peace (or Harris Tweed which it won't be or Vosne Romanee) does well it's all good.

Okay serious things now... I didn't realize the death toll had gone up and so dramatically.

Sad, sad, sad.

[_ed_]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Don't you mean "King" Mufhasa? (facepalm here).

That's why he won't win there... he doesn't know who he is!

Honestly!

Haha, probably true. He did okay. I don't think he saw those other horses until it was too late. 4th isn't bad, and I'm sure he can do better next time.

Replays of the big NZ races:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Do6LHDl7Ims
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnAbOVALE44
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLe3udhwjp0

[_ed_]

Right, time for Derby contender profiles. These might be a bit long. Sorry!

Before we start, it's been announced that King's Rose will not run in the Derby. I got all excited for nothing!

Anyway, it's still a great field. I'll probably try to do two of these a day. Here we go. No prizes for guessing who we'll start with...


JIMMY CHOUX
3 c Thorn Park - Cierzo
Breeder: Chouxmaani Investments Ltd.
Owner: Chouxmaani Investments Ltd.
Trainer: John Bary
Jockey: Jonathan Riddell

Starts: 15
Wins: 8
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $921,550

Major wins:
New Zealand 2000 Guineas (G1)
Great Northern Guineas (G2)
Hawke's Bay Guineas (G2)
Wakefield Stakes (G2)
Wellington Stakes (G3)
Waikato Guineas (G3)

Last start: Waikato Guineas (1st)
Best performance of the season: Waikato Guineas (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ5tofvX9pc

Season so far:
2nd Wanganui Guineas behind Fiddler - beaten by a nose on a very wet track
1st Hawke's Bay Guineas, beating Icepin, Maradona, Cellarmaster, We Can Say It Now, He's Remarkable
1st New Zealand 2000 Guineas, beating He's Remarkable, Twilight Savings, Rememba Howe, Icepin
15th Levin Classic - eased (cardiac arrhythmia)
1st Great Northern Guineas, beating Icepin, Yin Yang Master
1st Wellington Stakes, beating Jetset Lad, He's Remarkable
1st Waikato Guineas, beating Historian, Yin Yang Master

Pedigree:
Um, not very good. Sire Thorn Park was no more than a sprinter - the longest race he ever won was just 1400m. Neither his own performance nor that of his offspring so far suggest he'll ever sire a Derby winner. Cierzo never finished in the money in a race. Her first two foals both failed to do so as well. From a pedigree point of view, Jimmy Choux should be struggling in a sprint maiden race at some rural racetrack. It just shows that sometimes a horse can completely defy what their pedigree suggests they should do. They don't know their breeding is terrible!

Positives:
- Best 3yo in NZ
- He's beaten pretty much all of these horses, and his wins against them have all been incredibly easy
- Getting better with each race
- He's just awesome
- Trainer and jockey doing very well this season

Negatives:
- Although I think he's already proven that his pedigree is irrelevant, there will be a bit of doubt over the distance until he does it. This will be the only time he runs a mile and a half in his life.
- He's been racing since September, so it's been a long campaign. But his races have been well spread out.

Current odds:
9-5 (favourite)

So can he win?
Of course he can! The only negative is the question marks over the distance, because his pedigree so strongly suggests that he should be a sprinter. But his pedigree also suggests he should be a terrible racehorse. He's ignored the ability limitations of his pedigree; why should the distance limitations be any different?

Predicted finish:
1st

[_ed_]

HE'S REMARKABLE
3 c Pentire - Axiom
Breeder: Rich Hill Stud
Owner: G G Syndicate, J B Struthers & R S Balcoumb
Trainer: Roger James
Jockey: Matthew Cameron

Starts: 7
Wins: 2
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $193,500

Last start: Avondale Guineas (10th)
Best performance of the season: Rating 70 (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PetkprE1UZ0

Season so far:
1st Maiden
6th Hawke's Bay Guineas behind Jimmy Choux, Icepin, Maradona, Cellarmaster, We Can Say It Now
1st Rating 70
2nd New Zealand 2000 Guineas behind Jimmy Choux
5th Rating 90 behind Fazzle
3rd Wellington Stakes behind Jimmy Choux, Jetset Lad
10th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin - had some trouble getting a clear run

Pedigree:
Excellent (excuse the pun). He's by Pentire, who of course sired 2004 Derby winner Xcellent, and is known for stamina - his other good runners include Tinseltown, Pentane, Pentastic, Pentathon, Tin Goose and Zarita. And his dam, Axiom, is a daughter of champion sire Zabeel - one of the most successful stallions in NZ history, and the sire of three NZ Derby winners and also three Melbourne Cup winners. Stamina will not be an issue for He's Remarkable.

Positives:
- He's probably the second best 3yo we've got this season
- Proven in G1 company, with his amazing performance for 2nd in the 2000 Guineas
- Trainer Roger James has won the Derby three times
- James considers him the best horse he's trained since Zonda, the champion of the late '90s who won the Derby in 1997. I still consider him the second best I've seen after Sunline.

Negatives:
- Jimmy keeps beating him. Maybe he was just born in the wrong year
- Hasn't won a race since October

Current odds:
7-1 (second favourite)

So can he win?
Yes, although his form at the moment worries me. He hasn't really shown his true ability since the 2000 Guineas in November. But while some others have some doubts about the distance, he'll love the step up to 2400m. He should be making a strong run in the last furlong or so of this great race. He should finish in the money.

Predicted finish:
3rd
(Ooh, who will I pick for 2nd? The suspense! )

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Predicted finish:
3rd
(Ooh, who will I pick for 2nd? The suspense! )

I'm dying to know and I mean it!

(Agree Jimmy wins it!).

Can't wait for the rest! This is always so much appreciated and it's something I look forward to every year.