2/18-20 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1)

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

these things are so ridiculous.....i guess i could put a few bucks on anthonys cross at 65-1. but who in their right mind would bet 1-1 or 3-1 in a futures pool......practically 3 months in advance???? if recent history is any indication you should get 3-1 that pletchers horse even makes it. i seriously don't see how these things survive...its got to be the hype.

It's a bet like any other horse bet. You have info, and you look at the info to see if there's a bet that is an overlay. It has the same takeout as any other Churchill bet.

With any horse bet, in addition to the track take you're up against inside information. I don't know if the amount of inside info is greater with the Future Wager or not. If you think it is greater, then that's one good reason to stay away from the future wager. Otherwise, it's a bet like any other bet.* I happen to think it has offered some monster edges in the past.

--Dunbar

* But where else do you get people betting on horses when they could have waited a few hours to make the same bet, but could have watched the horse actually run a race in the meantime?! I like betting against that kind of bettor.

[knickslions2]

After todays Risen Star some of these will really change. This kind of bet is a true gamble. Payoffs can be good. No way I would ever bet anyone under 10-1. To Honor and Serve has some appeal to me at 17-1. This may even creep up more after the Risen Star today. I usually just bet $20-25 on these type of wagers.

[Scav]

I just played some exactas

Exacta box - Santiva with Uncle Mo / Field

Exacta Box - Santiva with Brethen/Dialed In/Jaycito/Mucho/Rogue/Soldat/Stay Thirsty/To Honor and Serve

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Why do you like Santiva?

[golfer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why do you like Santiva?

I was going to ask him the same question. Perhaps he's high?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why do you like Santiva?

I liked his race yesterday, I do question his ability to get 10 furlongs though.

I was going to play a win bet but I like the flexibility of the exacta box and wanted some action. I've never got involved in any of these future pools before so we'll see.

The horse I wanted to play was To Honor and Serve, but at 10/1, I will pass on it, if he were 20/1 I would have made him the exacta key

[Hoist Her Flag]

Uncle Mo must bring out the betters. With one hour to go. Handle is up $60K combined win and exacta over last year.

[tiznowthegreat]

I also was interested in Santiva at odds of 40/1 or higher. His first race off the shelf yesterday he went wide on both turns and came up a little short. Seems he has every right to move up off that race. Also ran a decent race over the CD strip. I'm not saying he is the most likely winner or anything like that, but i think 40+ to 1 is pretty good value and he could very well move up.

[hockey2315]

Santiva can't win the Derby. . . Tiz Blessed and Mucho Macho Man seem like the only ones I'd throw a few $ on for fun. . . The hope would be that MMM gets purchased privately and turned over to a better trainer.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by tiznowthegreat

I also was interested in Santiva at odds of 40/1 or higher. His first race off the shelf yesterday he went wide on both turns and came up a little short. Seems he has every right to move up off that race. Also ran a decent race over the CD strip. I'm not saying he is the most likely winner or anything like that, but i think 40+ to 1 is pretty good value and he could very well move up.

He ran really well.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's a bet like any other horse bet. You have info, and you look at the info to see if there's a bet that is an overlay. It has the same takeout as any other Churchill bet.

With any horse bet, in addition to the track take you're up against inside information. I don't know if the amount of inside info is greater with the Future Wager or not. If you think it is greater, then that's one good reason to stay away from the future wager. Otherwise, it's a bet like any other bet.* I happen to think it has offered some monster edges in the past.

--Dunbar

* But where else do you get people betting on horses when they could have waited a few hours to make the same bet, but could have watched the horse actually run a race in the meantime?! I like betting against that kind of bettor.

yeah, you make a point. but to me betting on some horse 3 months ahead of time at 3-1 when hes probably going to be not much lower than that anyway(if he even runs). same with the field at 1-1............really 1-1 , whats the objective?....throw your money on the floor or risk it for 3 months at even money or do people just want to say "i cashed in the future pool". thats where the money is so my question is "who bets that?" frankly if you are betting anything under 30-1, you are nuts. a friend of mine loved giacomo....he bet him in the futures............the horse started losing and paid more on derby day.....3 months later and live....yeah, thats a great bet....

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

yeah, you make a point. but to me betting on some horse 3 months ahead of time at 3-1 when hes probably going to be not much lower than that anyway(if he even runs). same with the field at 1-1............really 1-1 , whats the objective?....throw your money on the floor or risk it for 3 months at even money or do people just want to say "i cashed in the future pool". thats where the money is so my question is "who bets that?" frankly if you are betting anything under 30-1, you are nuts. a friend of mine loved giacomo....he bet him in the futures............the horse started losing and paid more on derby day.....3 months later and live....yeah, thats a great bet....

If you think 3-1 (which turned out to be 7-2) on Uncle Mo is ridiculously low, then that implies that some other horse is probably an overlay. This is a routine handicapping event--an overbet favorite. Take advantage of it.

I would agree with you about the Field bet if it were indeed 1-1. But it was 2.10-1. Furthermore, if you constructed a win bet from bets in the exacta pool, you could have gotten 3.6-1 to win on the Field. I think 3.6-1 is a humongous overlay, and I don't mind in the least sitting on it 2.5 months.

--Dunbar

[Scav]

I just thought of something and I wish I would have tried this, could you have boxed 'All Others / All others' in the exacta?

If you can't, what happens to the exacta future wager if it comes up All Others / All Others?

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Scav

I just thought of something and I wish I would have tried this, could you have boxed 'All Others / All others' in the exacta?

If you can't, what happens to the exacta future wager if it comes up All Others / All Others?

From the Kentucky Derby Future Wager rules:



1.3. All runners in the Mutuel Field of the "Futures Exacta" shall be treated as a "Coupled Entry" for the purposes of determining winning tickets and payouts. (In the event multiple Mutuel Field runners finish in positions affecting the determination of winning tickets and payouts, the calculation of the $2 payout will be conducted in a manner consistent with the approved method for "Coupled Entries" as contained in KHRC rules and/or the laws of the Commonwealth of Kentucky. By way of example, with #24 representing the Mutuel Field/All Others, a finish of 1/24/24/24/3 would result in an exacta payout to holders of a 1/24 ticket; a finish of 24/24/24/9 would result in an exacta payout to holders of a 24/9 ticket.)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

From the Kentucky Derby Future Wager rules:



1.3. All runners in the Mutuel Field of the "Futures Exacta" shall be treated as a "Coupled Entry" for the purposes of determining winning tickets and payouts. (In the event multiple Mutuel Field runners finish in positions affecting the determination of winning tickets and payouts, the calculation of the $2 payout will be conducted in a manner consistent with the approved method for "Coupled Entries" as contained in KHRC rules and/or the laws of the Commonwealth of Kentucky. By way of example, with #24 representing the Mutuel Field/All Others, a finish of 1/24/24/24/3 would result in an exacta payout to holders of a 1/24 ticket; a finish of 24/24/24/9 would result in an exacta payout to holders of a 24/9 ticket.)

Thanks Ranger, that is awesome...

[dylbert]

I saw Santiva live Saturday and was swayed enough to place $2 future wager. My over-the-top play is Santiva over Sweet Ducky exacta!

If both should occur, this post will get a much deserved "bump" on May 7!

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If you think 3-1 (which turned out to be 7-2) on Uncle Mo is ridiculously low, then that implies that some other horse is probably an overlay. This is a routine handicapping event--an overbet favorite. Take advantage of it.

I would agree with you about the Field bet if it were indeed 1-1. But it was 2.10-1. Furthermore, if you constructed a win bet from bets in the exacta pool, you could have gotten 3.6-1 to win on the Field. I think 3.6-1 is a humongous overlay, and I don't mind in the least sitting on it 2.5 months.

--Dunbar

You can put it right next to your eggs...kill many birds with one fat dupa.